Daily Loaf

Game 1 of the 2009 NBA finals is in the books and it was certainly not a good situation for the Orlando Magic. Here’s the thing, though: It’s not the end of the Magic world here.

Yes, I know that the Lakers have won like a trillion series in a row when winning the first game of a set but that does not concern me. Do I think the Orlando is going to win the series? No. Did I think the Magic were going to win the series before Game 1? No.  But I did, and still do, think the Magic have a good shot. There was about a 0% chance of a sweep to begin with. It would have been preferable for Orlando to take Game 1, to be sure, but if the Magic are going to win the title, they’re going to need to do it in 6 or 7.

I think that in the 2-3-2 format, the team with home court has an unusual advantage. It is extremely difficult to win the middle three games, but not impossible. Even so, your goal as the Magic (or any team without home court) is to rip one. That’s it. Do you want more? Of course, but these are the NBA Finals and the teams are good. Even when a team gets swept, they were still a hell of a team that had a hell of a season. So one is sometimes all you’re going to get.  For all the nay-saying in regards to Orlando’s ability to beat Cleveland, they only took one in C-town but they only needed one. So, after Game 1, the Magic are right where they should be.

“But Ryan, the Magic lost by a lot and didn’t look good in the process.”

True. Here’s a few counter points to consider:

First and foremost, remember that the Dwight Howard & Co. have been dead in the water more times than I would like to remember this postseason, only to come out the other side. Don’t underestimate their ability to chalk this game up as an anomaly. It cannot get much worse for the Magic in the shooting department and cannot get much better for the Lakers.  Look, Mamba is going to get his, he always will. The rest of the Lakers, though, played lights out, and that might or might not happen on a nightly basis. I do not expect this kind of performance for the rest of the series from Kobe’s Cast, and I’m not as concerned about that because I (as the Magic) can control that. I can make adjustments.

I’m also not concerned about the offense, at least not yet. Look, Orlando is a jump shooting team and they have been all season and all postseason. We knew that coming in and that did not change tonight. One thing about jump shooting teams is that they can get hot, and they can get cold (and they can get a lukewarm, I suppose). Orlando shooting in this game was terrible but it was not for want of good shots. What I saw was a team running their offense and getting good looks at the basket. I saw a team driving and kicking as they did all season. I just saw that the shots were a little off. I saw a few air balls that I would say were probably related to nerves. Mostly, though, I saw a bunch of shots hat rimmed out which says to me, that the shooting just went cold…. which is GOING to happen (although, it could be tightness… but that’s not what I saw). Which is also something that the Co. can shake.

Orlando’s “Big Three” really struggled shooting the basketball. Dwight Howard was 1-6 from the field. Not good. Hedo “The Snikoglu” Turkoglu – 3-11. Pretty not impressive. Rashard Lewis 2-10. As a team, the Magic shot 29.9% from the field. Look, tip your hat to the Lakeshow for playing solid defense. They did a good job closing out on the open jump shooter. Their length, at time, frustrated Magicians. Even so, the Magicians were getting their shots. Sometimes, the buckets just do not fall. That is especially true for a team that lives and dies by the drive and kick for a deep shot.

One thing that has to change without exception is the rebounding. This does not even need elaboration. The Magic were -14 on the boards overall and gave up 15 offensive rebounds. So, what’s good?

Howard shot about 67% (10/15) from the free throw line. Not perfection, admittedly, but close to good enough. Howard only needs to be about 70% or so to be effective. They’re what I call “advantage possessions”. It’s probably something I should talk about in another post, but I’ll touch on it briefly. Essentially, if Dwight can get a dunk, that’s 2 points. If he gets fouled, it is between 0-3 points. If Howard can make around 70% of the freebies, he drastically diminishes the amount of advantage possessions as compared to making only 50%. Dwight is GOING to get to the line a lot in this series.  The other advantage to Howard making his free throws: It relates to advantage possessions is the hesitation. If he consistently makes from the line, defenders are going to hesitate before fouling him, not wanting to give him an opportunity for three. This hesitation will deny a defender the opportunity to wrap Dwight up since they will, undoubtedly, realize that 70% is not 100% and they should foul him and not allow an easy dunkaroo. The hesitation will lead to more opportunities at a 3-point play for Howard because if the Lakers are going to foul him, they have to do it early or he will get the bucket. Hoop and the harm gives Orlando more advantage possessions.

The other bright spot was Jameer Nelson who shined in his first action since February 3. He only shot 3-9 from the field and was 0-2 from 3, but had 4 boards and 4 dimes in 23 minutes.  Most importantly, he had only 1 turnover. He looked comfortable and made good decisions with the basketball. As his conditioning gets better, look from him to make more of an impact later in the series. Jameer is quicker than any of the other Magic PG’s, and can put more pressure on the Laker’s defensive weakness at the point.

Questions? Feel free to leave comments about the game or questions for me.

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