Early voting numbers, crunched

As of this morning, more than a million Georgians — a stunning 18 percent of the state’s nearly 5.6 million registered voters — had already cast ballots. Pundits figure that most of the state’s early votes in the presidential race went to Obama. Here’s why:

First off, African Americans have turned out in far greater numbers that most experts expected, casting nearly 35 percent of the ballots since early voting began Sept. 22, despite representing only 29 percent of the state’s registered voters. In the 2004 election, blacks accounted for only 25 percent of the ballots cast in Georgia.

Perhaps even more telling is a comparison of early voters to their participation in Super Tuesday. Here’s a breakdown of the million voters who’ve already gone to the polls:

Voted in 2008 Democratic Presidential Primary        33.85 %

Voted in 2008 Republican Presidential Primary         26.2   %

Did Not Vote in 2008 Presidential Primary                39.95 %

Can we agree that most of the nearly 40 percent of early voters who didn’t vote on Feb. 5 are likely newly registered voters? And can we further agree that most of the 400,000 people who’ve registered to vote in Georgia in 2008 will be casting ballots for Obama rather than McCain?

If so, then it’s easy to understand why recent polls are calling the presidential race in Georgia a toss-up.

(For a more complete examination of early voting stats, check out this post.)