Early voting numbers, crunched
October 27, 2008 at 12:15 pm by Scott Henry in NewsAs of this morning, more than a million Georgians — a stunning 18 percent of the state’s nearly 5.6 million registered voters — had already cast ballots. Pundits figure that most of the state’s early votes in the presidential race went to Obama. Here’s why:
First off, African Americans have turned out in far greater numbers that most experts expected, casting nearly 35 percent of the ballots since early voting began Sept. 22, despite representing only 29 percent of the state’s registered voters. In the 2004 election, blacks accounted for only 25 percent of the ballots cast in Georgia.
Perhaps even more telling is a comparison of early voters to their participation in Super Tuesday. Here’s a breakdown of the million voters who’ve already gone to the polls:
Voted in 2008 Democratic Presidential Primary 33.85 %
Voted in 2008 Republican Presidential Primary 26.2 %
Did Not Vote in 2008 Presidential Primary 39.95 %
Can we agree that most of the nearly 40 percent of early voters who didn’t vote on Feb. 5 are likely newly registered voters? And can we further agree that most of the 400,000 people who’ve registered to vote in Georgia in 2008 will be casting ballots for Obama rather than McCain?
If so, then it’s easy to understand why recent polls are calling the presidential race in Georgia a toss-up.
(For a more complete examination of early voting stats, check out this post.)
October 27th, 2008 at 12:38 pm
I can’t agree that most of those who didn’t vote in the primary are newly registered.
I think a lot of Republicans sat out the primaries since the presidential race wasn’t that close or exciting by the time the GA primary happened.
Though clearly early voting this time around is probably geared more towards Obama. Question is will that be enough?
Though if Obama wins it certainly is because of his message and McCain’s lack of message, not because of a shift in GA politics.
I mean come on, middle of the road Republicans recognize that Obama is a once in a lifetime leader and that its the republican policies that have created the need for someone who can inspire, someone who can unify, someone who can lead without screaming or scaring us.
November 3rd, 2008 at 10:25 am
[...] Early voting numbers, crunched By Scott [...]
November 5th, 2008 at 1:53 pm
Despite my disbelief, I did hope GA would go for Pres Elect Obama.
What is up with the state? Part of me blames the lame AJC that never really hit the current administration hard because they are afraid to lose readership.
November 7th, 2008 at 4:02 pm
[...] you one of the 2 million Georgians who enjoyed his or her early voting experience? The long lines, the new friends, the chance you may have ended up as a “missed [...]