Who wins if Martin and Chambliss head into a runoff?
October 31, 2008 at 11:25 am by Ken Edelstein in NewsSo what if Libertarian Allen Buckley got enough votes to keep both Saxby Chambliss and Jim Martin from topping 50 percent in the Nov. 4 election? They’d face each other in a Dec. 2 runoff. But which candidate would have the advantage?
It depends on the conventional-wisdom theory you go with.
CW theory #1: Incumbents often lose when they’re forced into runoffs, because people who supported the other candidates are more likely to swing their support to another challenger than to support the status quo.
CW theory #2: Republicans generally win runoffs in Georgia because whites go back to the polls in higher proportions than blacks.
Paul Coverdell’s 1992 runoff victory over incumbent Democrat Sen. Wyche Fowler provides ammo for either theory. Fowler topped Coverdell, 49 percent to 48 percent in the General Election, but a Libertarian, Jim Hudson, took 3 percent of the vote. At the time Georgia law required statewide candidates to win at least 50 percent to avoid a runoff. Then, a big Republican turnout in the runoff — and weak turnout among Democrats — helped Coverdell squeak in with 51 percent of the vote.
Democrats in the state Legislature were pissed. They quickly lowered the General Election threshold 45 percent (most other states don’t require 50 percent). But when Republicans took control of the Legislature in 2005, they raised it back up to 50 percent.
So here we are again. There are a lot of similarities between 1992 contest and the Chambliss-Martin race. Like Fowler, Chambliss hasn’t been polling above 50 percent — bad sign for an incumbent. And like 1992, 2008 looks to be a year when a Democrat will return to the White House.
The big difference is that this time, the incumbent senator is the Republican. In ‘92, Republicans were able to capitalize on a bit of anxiety from voters who’d just given the presidency to Bill Clinton (with the help of Georgia’s electoral votes) . And Coverdell used an insurgent’s momentum to turn his campaign into the first victory in the Republican takeover of Congress that culminated in 1994.
This year, thouth, with the help of an African-American president-elect, Georgia Democrats might be able to juice up turnout for the primary. The stakes would be high. That’s particularly true if Democrats are looking at 59 Senate seats on the morning of Nov. 5; the 60th seat would give them a filibuster-proof majority. As Insider Advantage’s Dick Pettys noted yesterday, a runoff could make Georgia “the center of the political world for the ensuing four weeks.”
CW theory #2 — that Republicans turnout for runoffs — is a bit more consistently the rule. At least that’s the way most politicos I speak with see it. But this year there’s a chance that CW theory #1 — throw the bum out — takes precedence.
For more information about the election, check out CL’s 2008 Voter’s Guide, which includes “Cheat Sheets” for voters in Fulton and DeKalb counties.
November 1st, 2008 at 2:08 pm
If there is a runoff, it will be because there are many people who are like me. I always vote. I voted for Chambliss six years ago, but he has been so much of a dissapointment that I will never vote for him for any office. If the Democrats have 59 Senators on 5 November, and there is a runoff, Georgia will become a circus. There may be more votes in the runoff than in the general. Martin will get mine.