What’s the matter with Georgia? [CORRECTED]
November 5, 2008 at 5:43 pm by Scott Henry in NewsA story recently posted by the AJC says the unimaginable: that statewide voter turnout for this election was lower than it was in 2004. Although there are nearly a million more potential voters than there were four years ago and the actual number of ballots cast was higher, the turnout was only 74 percent, compared to 77 percent in 2004. How could that be, when election officials were predicting a 85 percent turnout?
Well, UGA political science professor Charles Bullock, an expert on voting issues, admits it’s a surprise to him, given that voter turnout across the country was the highest it’s been in a century. However, Bullock says that if state officials based their Election Day expectations on early-voting numbers, it’s no shock that the reality fell short.
“Early voting has been shown not to increase overall turnout,” he says. “It’s often simply a reallocation of votes.”
It seems counterintuitive that providing additional opportunities for folks to go to the polls wouldn’t result in more votes being cast, but Bullock says studies in other states have conclusively shown that, for whatever reason, early voting seems only to cause the electorate to spread out their votes over a longer time frame.
And as for the 600,000 Georgians who registered to vote this year, Bullock says: “New voters are less likely to show up to the polls than those who’ve voted before.”
Fair enough, but that still doesn’t begin to explain why Georgia turnout would actually have dropped for such an historic election. The theory advanced in the AJC by a Fulton election official is that fair-weather voters were discouraged by the long lines seen during early balloting. That’s a possibility, says Bullock.
But if that’s the primary reason for the drop-off, it means one of two things – both of which are bad. The first is that Secretary of State Karen Handel bungled early voting by not instituting measures that would have helped boost voter turnout. I’ve suggested in an article that Handel’s actions over the past few months seem calculated to suppress voter turnout. Our lackluster showing at the polls could partially be a result of those efforts.
The other possibility is that Georgians are, generally speaking, pathetically lame. There were long waits at polls in other states, but they didn’t stay home on Election Day. What’s our excuse? Any thoughts?
UPDATE: The AJC has posted what seems to be a revised version of their earlier article, this purporting that turnout was essentially the same as in 2004. And it gives different numbers: The first story said turnout for this election was 74 percent of “active registered voters” versus 77 percent in 2004; the new story says turnout was nearly 70 percent this year, compared to 69.3 percent fours years ago.
But no explanation is offered as to why these numbers have changed. After reading both articles, it’s my guess that in the first story the reporter mistakenly used Fulton County turnout for the statewide numbers.
I, too, must admit an error. Even if turnout was just under 70 percent, that’s still better than the estimated national average of 64 percent. If that’s true, I owe Georgia an apology.
But the question remains: If voter turnout was surging across the country, why didn’t it happen here?
November 6th, 2008 at 1:05 am
Georgia ended up a red state–perhaps the lack in surge was a lack in the voters that surged, aka, young Democrats.
I would also suggest looking at “active” voter percentages–that is, what percentage of voters that voted in the last major election (say, 2004) voted in this election. This throws out any people that left their voting area and were not taken off the list.
Finally, in Georgia, you must register in advance of election day. I would imagine the turnout rate would be higher if you could register on election day. Puts a big barrier in front of people that are not as organized.
November 6th, 2008 at 11:24 am
Yes, one has to wonder why did I have to stand in line for 2 hours at early voting if the numbers did not rise that much. I mean kerry wasn’t even close to being in the running 4 years ago and Obama looked like a possibility.
Something is odd.
November 6th, 2008 at 5:28 pm
Because the Republicans are stealing the election. Those votes were cast. They have not been counted. Wake up, Georgia!
November 6th, 2008 at 5:41 pm
As of November 5, 2008, the Georgia Secretary of State’s posted election results list Gwinnett County as having reported 163 of 163 precincts. At the same time, the Gwinnett County election site (http://www.gwinnettcounty.com) Election Summary Report lists Gwinnett as reporting 163 of 164 precincts.
Further review of the Gwinnett Election Summary Report provides that the allegedly missing precinct includes both County Commission Districts D1 and D3. Since D1 and D3 are mutually exclusive and both are reporting one precinct short, it would seem that this 164th precinct is a county wide precinct.
The Gwinnett County Election Summary Report notes that, “precincts reporting includes absentee, early, and advance counts.” To add further confusion, the precinct map provided on the website does not show any unreported precincts. So where or what is this 164th precinct?
November 6th, 2008 at 6:26 pm
“Puts a big barrier in front of people that are not as organized.”
If someone is too lazy, excuse me “disorganized”, to mail in a registration form, they shouldn’t vote. I registered when I got my GA drivers license, that was as difficult as answering “yes” when they asked if I wanted to register.
Sorry, there are no real barriers to voting in this state.
November 6th, 2008 at 10:38 pm
Hmmm, I waited 2 hours in line this time, and 5 minutes in 2004, both times on election day proper, same polling place, and I believe there were more machines this time. Hearing the same from friends. So where are the numbers that reflect this?
I do have a friend who was scared off by the reported 8 hour lines in Gwinnett during early voting. With an unsympathetic boss, and no one to pick up her kids, she didn’t risk going.
November 7th, 2008 at 7:42 am
Handle is not responsible for determining how many polling places are open for early voting, or on election day. There were 30 extra days to early vote this year.
You can thank John Lewis who pushed the 1965 Voting Rights bill back through the congress for the counties requirement to go to the feds to ask to extend the hours.
Not sure how 2,000,000 people can vote early and that be called voter suppression.