Next mayor is Norwood, predicts Norwood poll
February 18, 2009 at 3:42 pm by Scott Henry in NewsThe rule of thumb when looking at a political poll is to consider who paid for it. That’s because every successful pollster knows that, besides providing useful information, a poll is a campaign marketing tool – and the folks writing the check expect to get their money’s worth. In short, you never see a candidate release a poll that shows he’s getting his butt kicked.
With that in mind, we turn to a recent poll released by Atlanta Councilwoman Mary Norwood which indicates that – surprise! – Mary Norwood is leading the 2009 mayor’s race.
Last month, Norwood’s campaign disclosure showed she had raised more cash in 2008 than her opponents – just over $500,000, compared to $423,000 in contributions to state Sen. Kasim Reed (although Reed had more cash on hand as of Dec. 31).
Now, the poll by Washington, D.C.-based Lake Research Partners shows that, as of early February, Norwood has far better name recognition than Reed or the other two major candidates, Councilman Ceasar Mitchell and attorney Jesse Spikes. All three men are lawyers.
Not a surprising outcome, given that Norwood has been informally campaigning across the city for the past couple of years. More significant, perhaps, are the candidates’ favorable ratings. Among the 400 Atlantans who took part in the telephone poll – and who had opinions – Norwood’s score was 61 favorable to 9 unfavorable. Reed scored 21 to 5; Mitchell was 21 to 8; and Spikes was 8 to 4 – although many more people either had never heard of the trio or had no opinion.
Finally, when asked who they’d vote for if the election were held today, more than twice as many people preferred Norwood than the other three put together.
Here’s how Lake interpreted the results (PDF):
Mary Norwood currently has the highest name recognition and favorability of any tested candidate. Seventy percent of voters have an opinion of Mary Norwood, and 61% have a favorable opinion of her. No other candidate is known by more than 30 percent of the voters.
The firm concludes that Norwood enjoys a 30-point lead in the mayor’s race.
So, how significant is all of this? Certainly, Norwood started the year from a position of advantage, in both name recognition and fund-raising. The woman is absolutely everywhere, a fact reflected by her contributions, which are typically small amounts from neighborhoods all over Atlanta. However, she did manage to pull in big donations from such movers and shakers as Aaron Rents Chairman Charlie Loudermilk, philanthropist J. Mack Robinson and former Coke CEO Donald Keough.
As of now, her biggest threat is Reed, who drew on his political and professional connections to collect money as far afield as Philly, New Orleans and Dallas (Texas, not Georgia). His notable supporters include entertainment lawyer Joel Katz, developer Egbert Perry and former Gov. Roy Barnes.
You won’t hear much from Reed over the next month or so because state lawmakers are not allowed to raise money while the Legislature is in session. After the session is over, he should come out of the gate at full gallop.
But, wait – we’ve got an unprecedented situation this year, with the General Assembly scheduled to adjourn at the end of March and reconvene in early June. Does that mean Reed has to wait another five months to resume campaigning or can he accept contributions during the two-month break? More later…
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