ARC: Metro Atlanta’s job, population growth to be ’steady’
June 24, 2009 at 5:46 pm by Thomas Wheatley in News
The Atlanta Regional Commission says metro Atlanta will continue to grow, albeit at a slower pace than it enjoyed during the 1990s. Nonetheless, expect to call approximately three million more people neighbors by 2040.
In its latest monthly forecast, which is basically like Christmas for a fact-loving pagan wonk like myself, the commission’s researchers say:
slower growth in population and employment is likely to be the norm across the country, as well as in the Atlanta region. Many of the factors affecting metro Atlanta are nationwide phenomena. For example, the average family continues to shrink, including those of second and third-generation immigrants. Combine fewer births with the decrease in the number of baby boomers over the next 30 years, and it’s clear that natural attrition will play a large part in moderating the Atlanta Region’s growth.
By that time, its residents will also be a lot older and younger, too — which will mean fewer people to fill available jobs.
The ARC estimates 1.6 million more jobs will be added in the metro region by 2040. Since 2000 — the start of what commission researchers call the “lost decade” — the bulk of metro Atlanta’s new jobs have been low-paying. The ARC thinks that might change in the future, as more high-paying jobs in the healthcare, scientific, professional and technical fields will be created in the region.
There’s a lot to digest, so I’ve posted the full press release below. You can also view the data here (Warning: PDF).
One thing I noticed on the chart above was the commission’s estimation that employment will return to pre-meltdown levels by 2015. But we’ll have nearly one million more people living here by that time. A variety of factors depend on these estimates, sure. For one thing, we’ll see a larger population of retirement-age residents in the coming years. But from appearances alone, I was kind of shocked.
(Growth projection screenshot courtesy of ARC)
FULL RELEASE FROM ARC:
ARC Predicts Slower, Steady Growth for Atlanta Region
(ATLANTA – June 24, 2009) — While growth in population and jobs will slow over the next 30 years, forecasters at the Atlanta Regional Commission (ARC) believe that both growth measures will continue on a strong pace in the region, with approximately three million more people and 1.6 million more jobs added by the year 2040.
As the state and federally-mandated planning organization for the 20-county metro Atlanta region, ARC periodically updates its population and employment forecasts. All of the agency’s ensuing plans for transportation, land use, aging services and workforce development will be based on these forecasts.
According to ARC’s new forecast, slower growth in population and employment is likely to be the norm across the country, as well as in the Atlanta region. Many of the factors affecting metro Atlanta are nationwide phenomena. For example, the average family continues to shrink, including those of second and third-generation immigrants. Combine fewer births with the decrease in the number of baby boomers over the next 30 years, and it’s clear that natural attrition will play a large part in moderating the Atlanta Region’s growth.
Population
In the 1990s, metro Atlanta added an average of 120,023 people each year. So far this decade, the Region has seen average annual growth of 121,000 people, making it the second-fastest growing metro area in the country, behind only Dallas.
While growth is expected to slow somewhat in the coming years, ARC predicts that metro Atlanta will add almost 100,000 people each year from 2010-2020, roughly 92,000 each year between 2020-2030 and approximately 88,000 annually from 2030 and 2040.
“The Atlanta region has been one of the fastest growing areas in the United States for decades,” said Mike Alexander, ARC’s Research Division Chief. “And while the kind of growth experienced in the past can’t be maintained forever, metro Atlanta will continue to outpace most other parts of the country.”
Employment
The aging of the region’s population will also have an effect on job growth in the Atlanta region. By 2040, metro Atlanta will be both older and younger than it is today, resulting in fewer people available to fill available jobs. As of 2005, some 63 percent of the region’s population was of independent working age (ages 20-64). By 2040, ARC predicts that only 55 percent of the population will fall into that category. Approximately 25 percent will be younger than age 20, while 20 percent will be over age 64.
Despite an average loss of nearly 10,000 jobs each year during the “lost decade” of 2000-2010, ARC projects strong job growth in the region between now and 2040. “Employment growth won’t skyrocket as it did in the 1990s, when the Region added almost 86,000 jobs each year, but it will recover and metro Atlanta will again be a destination for job seekers,” says Alexander. ARC estimates that the region will add approximately 60,500 jobs each year from 2010-2020, more than 53,000 annually from 2020-2030 and almost 64,000 each year from 2030-2040.
More good news for the Atlanta region is that future job growth should occur in high-paying sectors. During the current economic slowdown, not only has the region lost thousands of jobs, many of the jobs it has gained have been in lower-paying sectors. In fact, from 2006 through 2008, the 20-county metro area gained 23,599 low-paying jobs (retail, food, recreation, etc.) and lost 1,655 high-paying jobs. Alexander predicts that high-paying job growth in the coming years will occur in the healthcare, professional, scientific and technical areas.
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