Lisa Borders up in latest mayoral poll, FWIW
August 19, 2009 at 12:49 pm by Scott Henry in News
According to the tirelessly self-promoting pollsters over at Insider Advantage, Council President Lisa Borders has moved up in the estimation of registered voters, while Councilwoman Mary Norwood is maintaining her lead. Here’s the lowdown:
An InsiderAdvantage survey conducted the evening of Monday August 17 among registered voters who said they were likely to vote in the November race to replace outgoing Mayor Shirley Franklin showed City Council Member Mary Norwood continuing to lead the race, with 30% saying they would vote for Norwood. But statistically tied with Norwood was City Council President Lisa Borders with 28%.
Lagging behind the two women were state Sen. Kasim Reed with 8% and attorney Jesse Spikes with 2%. The rest said they were undecided.
Borders was quick to send out a press release:
“We’ve almost tripled our support in just three months. That’s tremendous,” Borders said. “Everywhere that I’ve gone in the City, Atlantans have been eager to hear solution-based answers to how our next mayor will get Atlanta back on track. They want a plan for enhancing public safety, and they want to know where the funds will come from. I hear the need for a budget that gets our money’s worth and responsible government that cares for our community. Atlantans want a city that works. I welcome this news and look forward to speaking with more citizens about solutions to the challenges that we face.”
Keep in mind that the election isn’t until November and candidates don’t even qualify for the race until next month. A political operative told me a while back that polls are of little value until candidates start running TV ads. I’m guessing there’s some truth to that.
At this point, the only real conclusion I’d draw about the race — and the poll underscores this — is that Borders seems to have defied the conventional wisdom that says it’s not possible for a candidate to drop out of a race and later get back in with any hope of being a contender. Clearly, Borders’ eight-month hiatus from the race has so far not crippled her chances.
BTW, the Borders campaign is throwing what it’s calling a “block party” this Saturday from 11:30 a.m.-2:30 p.m. across the street from her campaign headquarters at Central Parking Lot, 123 Marietta St.
(Photo by Joeff Davis)
August 19th, 2009 at 1:27 pm
Your political operative contact is probably basing their assumption on candidates spending a lot of money on TV. That probably won’t happen this year.
Shirley spent about $2 million on TV in 2001. I doubt anyone will spend much more than $500,000 this go round, because the candidates haven’t been able to raise the money. FYI, media people will tell you anything less than a $1 million TV buy won’t be that effective in this market.
August 19th, 2009 at 1:28 pm
I don’t buy it… I still think she will drop out as the going gets tough…
August 19th, 2009 at 1:29 pm
S. Dekalb, who do you think is raising the most money now?
August 19th, 2009 at 1:33 pm
Good question. Reed had the momentum raising the most last quarter. However, I suspect he will have problems raising money now that this poll is out. If I was Borders I would make calls to Reed’s contributors based on this poll.
August 19th, 2009 at 2:45 pm
Man, I thought Reed would be garnering more than 8% given his fundraising. This has to be extremely disappointment for his campaign. But, I guess it’s too early to draw any conclusions about what will happen in November.
August 19th, 2009 at 3:48 pm
Did you hear of Andy Young’s endorsement of Reed? I think it will go along way in future polls… What do you think???
August 19th, 2009 at 3:50 pm
Nobody will have enough money for TV to make a difference and Reed doesn’t have the mettle to win a ground campaign without it. No TV means we’ll have another chick in the mayor’s office.
August 19th, 2009 at 4:30 pm
Afuture may not “buy it” but nothing’s being sold here. It’s a third-party poll. Norwood’s numbers are dropping and Reed has a double digit deficit behind both ladies. It’s right there in the article. Throwing splashy parties is great, but it’s still August! I agree with Towery — bring on those TV spots!
August 19th, 2009 at 4:57 pm
Edwina, I hear you; therefore, the fundamental question is who is and can raise the most $$$ in the near future (to pay for the TV ads).
I may come off tough on Borders, but its because I just do not believe she genuinely desires to be Mayor.
I think she is being put up by the big time developers, Cousins (or whomever)…
August 19th, 2009 at 4:57 pm
I think Andy’s endorsement will help Reed with name recognition, which he obviously still lacks. I’m not so sure it helps him with votes.
Besides the election is a couple of months away, coming out with Andy in August is risky. Voters may not even remember it in November.
August 19th, 2009 at 4:58 pm
S. Dekalb, you appear to be a pro at this game. Who do you think will pull it out?
August 19th, 2009 at 5:21 pm
I know about as much as anybody else on this blog. Just yesterday I was saying Reed was looking up because of the Andy endorsement, so that shows you how much I know.
I think the person that raises the most money between now and Oct. 1 and makes the fewest campaign mistakes wins this race. Borders has the ability to do it, but I’m not too impressed with the way she has run her campaign.
If Reed doesn’t release his own poll in the next week showing him with stronger support than he’s in serious trouble and should consider dropping out.
August 19th, 2009 at 5:35 pm
S. Dekalb, thanks for your insight. I actually think Reed is higher than reflected in this poll. I saw another Voto-meter poll that had him above Borders (albeit undecideds not counting). I assume his poll is forthcoming and will be strong, especially when the Young endorsement sinks in…
August 19th, 2009 at 5:44 pm
Kasim didn’t have a choice but to come out with the Young endorsement…his internal polling likely isn’t be much different than the IA numbers and if he doesn’t move the needle soon, he’s cooked.
And if you’ve seen the cross tabs, Lisa is owning the 18-29 set, which many thought was Kasim’s to lose.
And even if race doesn’t play a role here, it certainly is correlative:
- Norwood vote (62% white, 32% black, 6% other).
- Borders vote (68% black, 30% white, 2% other)
- Reed vote (68% black, 21% white, 11% other)
43% of Norwood voters also identify as Republican or Independent, higher than the 30% of all voters identifying as R or I in the poll.
Long way to go but shaping up as very interesting….
August 19th, 2009 at 6:50 pm
For those of you who missed it, the Vote-O-Meter profferred the following post in CL on August 14:
The Vote-O-Meter has picked up some changes since the last post on August 4. We believe if the election were held today [August 14], Norwood would be at 42%; Reed – 27%; Borders – 25%; Spikes – 5%, and others 1%. Reed has pulled ahead of Borders, probably due to his messages starting to connect and a solid network. Norwood is holding on to her base due to her enthusiasm and energy (but is not making gains). Borders is lagging because of uninspired campaigning and not giving a compelling reason to vote for her. Spikes is generating interest but is not yet convincing people to vote for him.
August 19th, 2009 at 6:55 pm
Still a risky move to come out so early with Andy. However, they must have known their numbers were so low.
Reed is the only candidate on radio and has dropped two mailers in the last two weeks. He’s got to be scratching his head.
August 19th, 2009 at 9:06 pm
I hear you, S. DeKalb. He must’ve been selective about the mail targets though because I didn’t get either one here in Grant Park. Name ID is a retail business…should probably be spreading the love a lot wider. May be saving the cash for TV.
As for the Vote-O-Meter, I’m not really sure what to say about that. Pretty big assumption that SO many of the undecideds would break for Reed. But let’s just keep assuming that Norwood doesn’t break 50%…I like that.
August 20th, 2009 at 12:10 pm
As long as Borders stays in the race, there will be a run-off.
August 20th, 2009 at 10:36 pm
The Insider Advantage numbers seem off. I don’t sense much support or enthusiasm for Lisa.
August 21st, 2009 at 11:09 am
Wow – between Mr. T and the Vote-O-Meter, I’m not sure who’s on top. Or who’s on first. (I think What’s on second though.)
@Atlanta Without Borders: These empty opinions are laughable. But Lisa’s support is waning. She needs to step it up.
August 21st, 2009 at 1:27 pm
For the record, Mr. T is repeating actual numbers from a poll done by an independent polling firm.
The vote-o-meter, as far as I can tell, is someone’s guess based on their possible educated opinion.
Neither are indisputable but one certainly gives you more reason to believe than than the other.
And not to pick a fight, Amnesty, but your statement about Borders’ support waning is every bit the empty opinion you chide “Atlanta Without Borders” for, at least based on the only thing we have to go on – actual polls.
August 21st, 2009 at 3:04 pm
@Mr. T: Oh! Touche — you got me there, kiddo.
August 21st, 2009 at 5:39 pm
This poll counted people under 30 as 3 times more likely to vote than they actually are. If you adjust the voter age groups to a common turnout model, here are the results:
Mary Norwood – 31
Lisa Borders – 16
Kasim Reed – 7
August 28th, 2009 at 1:42 pm
That poll is complete garbage. (1) It had a sample size of 400 “likely voters” and some of those people were “undecided”… Who conducts a poll that small? What was the methodology? Was it even scientific? (2) When it comes to visibility (i.e., yard signs, radio ads, mailing pieces, etc.), I see more from Norwood and Reed (specifically Reed) than anyone else in the race. (3) Ask yourselves who conducted the poll in the first place.
For Reed to be trailing so significantly is laughable. Here are the facts: (1) Reed was #1 in fundraising last quarter, outraising his opponents by $100,000 and $200,000 respectively in only 90 days. (2) Reed had the endorsement of the Atlanta Labor Council (an organization of more than 87,000 members) which is, by far, the most significant endorsement of the race other than the firefighters endorsement. No candidate within the last 20 years has won the office of Mayor without that endorsement,(3) Reed was the first candidate with radio adds, which have been airing now for weeks, and (4) Either Reed or Norwood will probably be the first candidates on television for the home stretch…
August 28th, 2009 at 1:50 pm
Oh, and I forgot to mention that several of Borders’ top campaign staffers quit a little under a month ago…
How do you literally double your poll numbers when you are having so many internal problems with your campaign that more than 3 of your key people leave and you don’t have as much money to spend as your opponents?