Mayoral poll puzzler: Why would ‘undecideds’ be increasing?
October 5, 2009 at 6:48 pm by Scott Henry in NewsLooking at the results of the three polls conducted on the Atlanta mayor’s race by Insider Advantage, one thing had me confused: the percentage of undecided voters seemed to be growing as the election draws closer.
For instance, the poll released Sept. 4 showed undecideds at 12 percent. That number had risen to 23 percent by Sept. 11 and crawled up slightly to 24 percent in a poll released yesterday.
That seemed counter-intuitive; the rule of thumb is that the undecided column should shrink as voters find out more about the candidates. So I called a couple of veteran pollster/politicos to see why we might be seeing these results.
Rusty Paul, a former state GOP head and campaign consultant, says he’s seen this phenomenon before. Voters can favor a candidate early on simply because of name recognition, he says, and then grow more uncertain about their choice as they learn more about all the candidate.
Beth Shapiro, a Democratic pollster, basically agrees, but doesn’t believe that’s what’s going on with the mayor’s race. Instead, she says the Sept. 4 result is likely an anomaly. In other words, it’s wrong. That’s the only way she can make sense of the later results that show undecideds hanging at about a quarter of the electorate.
“I think voters are still kicking the tires,” she says, comparing the mayor candidates to used cars — and fairly uninspiring ones at that.
From Shapiro’s perspective — and that of virtually every other person I’ve talked to — the mayor’s race simply hasn’t managed to ignite city-wide enthusiasm. Which suggests that voters just aren’t fired up about their choices.
That’s bad news because, as Paul and Shapiro agree, an uninspired voter typically doesn’t show up at the polls. Unless the percentage of undecideds drops, we may be looking at a lackluster turnout come Nov. 3.
October 5th, 2009 at 6:59 pm
Greetings All,
There is the third possibility that the polls are reflecting the mood and will of the respondents. As more voters pay attention to the myriad of candidates running for the post of “His/Her Honor” here in Atlanta there is perhaps a sudden and growing realization that there are damn few discernible differences among the horde. I suspect if the libertarian tradition of including “None of the Above” or NOTA on every ballot were applied to this race, NOTA would in fact win the contest.
October 5th, 2009 at 8:17 pm
The Vote-O-Meter does not cover its bets by giving a percentage of “undecideds.” Rather, it forecasts what would happen if the election were held today. Right now the Vote-O-Meter says that if the mayoral election were held today, the votes would be Mary Norwood 38%; Lisa Borders – 34%; Kasim Reed – 23%; Jesse Spikes – 3%, Kyle Keyser – 2%; Peter Brownlowe – 0%. Norwood’s lead is getting slimmer and her “say nothing” strategy continues to hurt her. Borders is gaining momentum and pulling support from Norwood and Reed. Reed is in danger. Spikes is out of the race. Keyser is keeping his small but fervent group. Brownlowe does not show up on the charts.
October 5th, 2009 at 9:24 pm
The Sept. 4th poll was done right after the polarizing race memo leaked. Some people may have had knee jerk reactions based on the memo.
October 6th, 2009 at 1:06 pm
Vote-o-Meter: Sorry to tell you, but Borders is nowhere near that close to Norwood. That’s why she’s the only candidate to never have released any internal polling. Norwood and Reed’s polling matches. Border’s does too, she’s just not releasing it.
Keep this in mind: The other candidates have been running TV/Radio ads for the past 2 or 3 weeks. Norwood has been silent and she’s STILL in the lead. If she has enough cash on hand to air significant TV, she’s going to blow them out of the water.
October 7th, 2009 at 5:15 pm
Everyone here sounds like an insider. I just hope for the sake of Atlanta that people start checking out these candidates soon.
October 7th, 2009 at 5:37 pm
… because we are starting to realize that all of them are poor candidates?
October 8th, 2009 at 10:07 am
Maybe we’re just incompetent voters? If the relatively well-informed folks who comment here can’t distinguish between a candidate who proposes to tackle the one big addressable city problem and the others who don’t, why should Atlanta have an effective mayor? It is pure self indulgence to whine generically about the lack of choice when candidates offer important specifics that differ.
Kasim has committed to roll back the idiotic pension benefit increases that contribute to the $100mm annual pension expense mountain in the city’s budget. The others mumble non-committally, pandering to the unions. Kasim has committed to subpoena power for the citizens’ review board. the others mumble, as above.
Those are concrete, credible proposals that address two of the most pressing issues in town: the budget crunch and lack of police accountability. Give the guy credit.
October 8th, 2009 at 10:53 am
Or maybe the well informed voters know Kasim will say anything to get elected…
October 8th, 2009 at 12:16 pm
@SDekalb How about some evidence from his record for the cheap shot at Kasim? Saying anything to get elected usually means telling people they can have it all. Which is what Lisa and Mary are essentially saying.
I don’t put a halo on Kasim. He’s much too close to Shirley and Atlanta as usual. But by addressing some harsh realities he’s showing that rare thing – leadership. So what do we all do, media included? Ignore it.
October 8th, 2009 at 2:56 pm
All of the candidates tend to pander to the crowds they address. However, I think Kasim does it best. I compare him to the smooth talking guy in high school who gets all the girls by telling them what the want to hear. His best pick up line to date is his promise to increase the police force by 750 officers during his first term. ROFL! That’s hilarious…That’s not what I call leadership. It’s total bullshit. When you ask him how he’s going to pay for it, he says by cutting the waste in the technology budget. Sometimes I wonder if any of the candidates know anything about finance or accounting.