Fresh Loaf

We haven’t seen turnout figures yet for yesterday’s runoffs, but the results in most cases seemed to confirm predictions.

The Democratic Senate nominee, of course, is former Atlanta lawmaker Jim Martin, having trounced DeKalb CEO Vernon Jones 60% to 40%.

Some folks might look at this result as the triumph of funding, since Martin entered the race late, spent little time stumping across the state and instead focused his efforts on collecting enough money from PACs and other sources to wage a TV campaign. That’s all true, but Martin did have high name recognition and none of the negatives that Jones brought to the table.

Martin’s victory opens the door for an aggressive, high-dollar assault on GOP incumbent Saxby Chambliss this fall. It all but ensures that top Senate Democrats will attempt to turn Georgia into one of their key battleground states.

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If you want to get an early jump on currying favor with DeKalb’s next CEO, you can do so tonight – after you’ve voted, of course! – at one of two locations:

• Commissioner Burrell Ellis has rented out a ballroom at the Holiday Inn, 130 Claremont Road, in downtown Decatur
• State Rep. Stan Watson can be found at Seasons Bistro,  2077 Northlake Pkwy., in Tucker

Choose wisely. Only one of these men will win and, from our experience, concession-speech parties are a real buzz-kill.

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“Forget it, Jake. It’s South DeKalb.”

With apologies to Chinatown, that’s what DeKalb voting patterns make me think of. Who imagined, back in 2004, that Cynthia McKinney would win back her Congressional seat without a runoff against such heavy hitters as Lianne Levitan and Cathy Woolard? Ditto for embattled CEO Vernon Jones, who easily won re-election that same year against six challengers, including a sitting commissioner, also without a runoff.

South DeKalb politics is like a sealed box; you can speculate all you like about what’s inside, but you never really know until you take the lid off on election day. (more…)

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Damn, Stan!

Viewers tuning into the Atlanta Press Club debate for DeKalb CEO on GPB this coming Sunday will see a rather one-sided affair. The debate was taped earlier today, but State Rep. Stan Watson wasn’t there, apparently having called to cancel last night. That left only Commissioner Burrell Ellis, an empty podium and three print journalists – myself included – trying to make things look as interesting as possible in the absence of any real debating.

Watson missed more than his share of the numerous CEO debates before the July 15 primary, but then he was in good shape to make the runoff over several less well-funded opponents. Now, however, he’s the apparent long shot against Ellis, who took a solid 46 of the primary vote.

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Politicos know that a bulging campaign war chest doesn’t guarantee victory. (Paging Roy Barnes…) Next to incumbency, however, it’s usually the best indicator of which candidate has the edge.

And by all known rules of thumb, Commissioner Burrell Ellis looks to be running away with the runoff race to become the county’s next CEO. For starters, before the end of June, Ellis raised $421,000 – more than all four of his opponents put together.

We didn’t have a chance to compare his contributions with those of the runner-up, state Rep. Stan Watson – mainly because Watson was several days late in filing his report. But now that we have both sets, we see that Ellis has all the earmarks of a sure thing.
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State Rep. Stan Watson, a leading Democratic candidate for DeKalb CEO still has not filed his June 30 campaign disclosure report.

Disclosures were due last Tuesday, but, as of 11:15 a.m. this morning, Watson’s was six days overdue, according to the filing officer with the county election department.

We couldn’t reach Watson by phone, so we can only speculate on why he’s so late. Frankly, we wonder if it has something to do with the fact that Commissioner Burrell Ellis, the presumed front-runner in the CEO’s race, reported contributions totaling a staggering $421,000, while Ann Kimbrough, chief of staff to CEO Vernon Jones, reported just under $89,000. If Watson had come in third in fund-raising, it could potentially shift some undecided voters to Kimbrough in tomorrow’s primary.

C’mon, Stan. Turn in your report so we can compare all the candidates’ finances fairly.

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We’ve called the DeKalb CEO possibly the most powerful local elected official in Georgia, by virtue of the position’s administrative clout and its influence over the County Commission. A fall referendum may rein in that power a bit, but the job is still a big deal in metro Atlanta – most important, actually, than similar posts in other counties.

Because DeKalb is Georgia’s most Democratic county, Republicans need not apply for CEO. Accordingly, the race will be decided in the primary, most likely in a runoff election. The candidates are:

• We’ve called Joe Bembry a recreational candidate because he’s run for various offices more than two dozen times in recent years. You may be tempted to vote for someone with the chutzpah to identify himself on the ballot as “Joe from Decatur.” Resist that temptation.
• By most accounts, Commissioner Burrell Ellis is the man to beat for CEO. He’s raised over $400,000 – more than his four opponents combined – has near-universal name recognition, and enjoys wide support across the county. A frequent opponent of Vernon Jones, Ellis – who’s also well-spoken, clean-cut and youthful – has especially endeared himself to residents of the north end of the county. His supporters look to Ellis to undo the racial polarization that has occurred under Jones. Ellis is endorsed by the AJC.
• While Ann Kimbrough seems well-liked by many neighborhood leaders, as Jones’ chief of staff, she’s been forced into the unenviable role of defending the current administration during debates. Also, the legions of Jones-haters, a group that includes much of north DeKalb, seem unlikely to support the notion of a Jones dynasty. She must poll well in South DeKalb to earn a runoff berth.
• Steen Miles is familiar to much of DeKalb, having covered the county for 15 years as a WXIA-TV reporter. She has a calm, dignified, authoritative presence in debates and can claim two years of experience in the state Senate. But she has had poor showings in the 2000 race for CEO and in 2006 for lieutenant governor; there’s little reason to expect a better performance this time around, when she has the least funding and visible organization of any of the candidates.
• State Rep. Stan Watson has strong support among his House colleagues, who see him as a skilled mediator and bridge-builder, but it’s difficult to gauge what impact that will have on voters. A scrappy pol of the old school, Watson must expand his appeal beyond the boundaries of his Lithonia House district in order to make the runoff. As of Wednesday evening, he was the only CEO candidate who hadn’t filed his campaign disclosure; the deadline was Tuesday.

You can read more about the candidates in the AJC and the website GoDeKalb.

Got a take on any of the candidates for CEO? We welcome your comments.

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It’s arguably the most powerful local elected position in metro Atlanta, perhaps all of Georgia. And yet, by most accounts, the race for DeKalb CEO really hasn’t caught fire yet. Frankly, with only two weeks to go before the July 15 primary, there’s a good chance it won’t.

Even state Rep. Stan Watson, one of five hopefuls in the all-Democratic contest, concedes that he’s seen more excitement in the community over the November presidential election (You say, “Obamania!” I say, “Obamamania!”) than the CEO’s race.

In the northern end of the county, all attention seems to be focused on the Dunwoody cityhood referendum. And DeKalb Republicans, historically an important swing vote in Democratic primaries, will mostly cast GOP ballots instead because District 1 Commissioner Elaine Boyer has drawn opposition. (Her challenger, by the way, is Terri Burdine Fischer, owner of Clarkston strip club Strokers. Make that a schwing! vote.)

Another reason for the apparent disinterest in the race is the possibility that, apart from recreational candidate “Joe from Decatur” Bembry, most voters are fairly confident that any of the four serious contestants would be, well, perfectly adequate.

Along with Watson, who serves as chairman of the DeKalb state House delegation, the candidates include two-term Commissioner Burrell Ellis; former state Sen. Steen “Newslady” Miles; and Ann Kimbrough, chief of staff to outgoing CEO Vernon Jones.

With no formal polls done, the consensus among local political mavens seems to be that the primary will result in a runoff election between Ellis and either Watson or Kimbrough.

Ellis, a real estate attorney, is running a well-organized campaign and recently nabbed the endorsement of the AJC. Watson was the earliest to get into the race and is well-known in South DeKalb, but has – at last count – trailed far behind Ellis in terms of fund-raising.

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