Fresh Loaf

Former presidential candidate Fred Thompson has endorsed U.S. Sen. Saxby Chambliss in his runoff race against Democratic candidate Jim Martin. Big surprise there, eh?

But there was also this in the e-mail announcement, sent to reporters by Chambliss’ campaign, by Will Andrews of Thompson’s PAC:

The Georgia seat is key to all of these battles and many more. Barack Obama is going to Atlanta to drum up support for his Democrat candidate. The unions and ACORN and every other left-wing group is on the ground working night and day.

Night and day! Eating only Socialist food rations that we’ll all riot over on Jan. 21, 2009. Yo, Will! Let us know when Obama’s coming, please. Everyone here is saying it’s unlikely.

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STAR POWER Former president stumps for U.S. Senate Democratic candidate Martin

In the quickening cold on Wednesday evening, Augustine Smith, a wide-grinning middle-aged man from Duluth by way of West Africa, leaned against a railing in the crowded Arnett Quadrangle at Clark Atlanta University, Barack Obama hat perched atop his head, and waited for the man many of these people came out to see.

Not U.S. Senate Democratic nominee Jim Martin, although the event was in his honor and Smith said he’d vote for the former state lawmaker again, but former President Bill Clinton. The president had visited Atlanta to stump for Martin in his runoff race against incumbent Republican Saxby Chambliss before zipping off to a local fundraiser.

“This country does not need to build a firewall,” Clinton told the energetic crowd of 1,500 people, referring to how Chambliss has described his role in a Democrat-controlled Senate under Pres.-elect Barack Obama. “It needs to build a bridge to the future. Martin’s the bridge, Chambliss is the firewall.”

Clinton repeated this mantra over and over as he attempted to enthuse supporters to do what Republicans know best and Democrats have historically proven unable — the tricky task of getting the voters back to the polls in a runoff.

(more…)

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Just two weeks before the Dec. 2 runoff, the Georgia Conservation Voters’ political action committee has slammed Georgia Public Service Commission Republican nominee Lauren “Bubba” McDonald on a website called “The Truth About Bubba.”

The site brands McDonald as a “special interest puppet” who consistently voted in favor of industries — the same ones who’ve contributed “hundreds of thousands of dollars” to his campaigns — when he previously served on the commission. The site includes specific instances where it says McDonald pushed for helping out the utilities more than Georgians.

“Having Bubba McDonald serve on the Public Service Commission is like letting the fox guard the hen house,” says Chris Osborne, Executive Director of Georgia Conservation Voters. “During his tenure holding public office, Bubba McDonald has proven to be nothing more than a puppet of the special interests. He has consistently voted against middle class ratepayers in favor of his campaign donors.”

McDonald is running against Democratic candidate Jim Powell. CL endorsed Powell in its General Election issue.

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The Obama for America campaign just won a landslide election, but it isn’t done yet. Now it’s looking to collect information from its many supporters and donors that, I can only assume, will allow our president-elect to achieve world domination and enslave the human race. Or perhaps I’ve been listening too much to Congressman Paul Broun.

Anyway, an e-mail survey is circulating with this preamble:

Your hard work and passion have defined this movement for change.
Now you can shape the next phase of our extraordinary effort by sharing your campaign experience and ideas about the future.
There are a few questions about you, your work with the campaign, and your interactions with this organization. At the end, you will also have an opportunity to share any thoughts you have that aren’t covered by the questions.

In addition to the usual name, address, phone number, etc., the survey asks about political leanings, past voting patterns, level of political involvement, occupation, level of religious involvement, issues of primary interest to the respondent and whether the respondent would be willing to “volunteer in your community as part of an Obama organization?”

(more…)

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Now that Ted Stevens has been sent packing back to Alaska, the two most closely watched U.S. Senate races in the country are Minnesota and Georgia. The race in the North Star State won’t be decided for a while thanks to a recount.

Down here, Rasmussen Reports’ latest polling shows that incumbent Republican Saxby Chambliss holds a four-point lead over Democratic nominee Jim Martin.

Chambliss leads 50% to 46%, with the vote scheduled for December 2. Four percent (4%) are undecided. However, runoff elections typically have lower voter turnout than general elections and can be impacted in either direction by organized get-out-the-vote efforts.

…

Eighty-eight percent (88%) of Georgia voters say they are certain to cast their ballots in the runoff. Of this group, 51% favor Chambliss, 46% are for Martin, and three percent (3%) remain undecided.

…

In Georgia, 52% of voters say they are less likely to vote for Martin if it means the Democrats will gain a 60-seat majority in the Senate. Thirty-eight percent (38%) say they are more likely to vote for Martin if that’s the outcome.

Interestingly, nine percent (9%) of those who plan to vote for Martin say the prospect of a 60-Democrat Senate makes them less likely to vote for him. Only 2% of Chambliss voters who say it makes them more likely to vote for Martin.

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Jim Galloway with the details:

The fourth former GOP presidential candidate will make his way to Atlanta on Monday — that’s three days before Thanksgiving — to help Republican incumbent Saxby Chambliss gather cash for the final week of his U.S. Senate runoff.

The price of the evening fund-raiser at the Linstrum + Matre Artworks is $500 per couple. They will take more if you insist.

The former mayor of New York, you’ll recall, took .7 percent of the vote in Georgia’s Republican presidential primary.

Giuliani’s last stop in Georgia — that I can remember at least — was a toe-touch in Marietta during his presidential run. That was a lot of fun.

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Georgia Secretary of State Karen Handel’s website shows more recent results.

as of 11/19/08

Number of ballots cast :33,555

Number of ballots voted in person: 33,523
Number of mail-in ballots returned: 32

Turn out Demographics:
Black Female 4,548
Black Male 3,565
White Female 11,343
White Male 13,093
Asia-PI Female 69
Asia-PI Male 51
Hisp-Lt Female 59
Hisp-Lt Male 57
Native AM Female 1
Native AM Male 1
Other 768
Total 33,555

Fulton County’s now fourth in turnout. Forsyth is off the list.

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Josh Putnam at Frontloading HQ crunches Monday’s early voting results. After he listed the raw numbers, here’s what he found:

* Turnout is down, but that’s not a surprise. Barely 13,000 votes cast is a fraction of what we were seeing early on in the general election early voting. [I'm still trying to get a hold of the day-by-day data on this in order to draw a proper comparison.]
* The percentage of African American participation is down. This isn’t a fair comparison, but over the entire early voting period for the general election, blacks made up nearly 35% of early voters (via Michael McDonald). For that proportion to sink to 22% is not good news for Jim Martin.
* The female percentage of the early vote is also down; another possible omen for Martin. Again, according to McDonald, women made up over 56% of early voters prior to the November 4 election. That proportion is now down to just under 48%.

Granted, Putnam says, some counties with large African-American populations — like Fulton County — don’t start early voting until today. Top five counties in terms of turnout were DeKalb, Gwinnett, Cobb, Hall and Forsyth.

He also says that the length of early voting periods could play into Chambliss’ favor. Look again at the counties where you saw the greatest turnout — three of those are pretty scarlet.

And some more tidbits:

The complicating factor is that a county like Fulton will only have the final three business days of this week and the first three business days of next week — truncated due to the Thanksgiving holiday — for early voting. And those advance voting-only counties will only have the three days next week. Again, if those are predominantly Martin counties, then the challenger may be getting the short end of the stick. And to think, there was all this fuss over the Republicans having lengthened the time between the general election and the runoff when they reinstituted the 50% rule for the runoff. The talk over the last week or so here in Georgia was that the extra week would give enthusiastic Democrats even more time to vote. Well, not if they can’t. So, the 50% rule hurt Chambliss, but the time between the general and the runoff may not.

Great work by Putnam. Give his site a visit — he’s got more info there for you about the results.

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For those still paying attention to the two undecided U.S. Senate races in other states, the NYT just gave word that the vote count outlook seems to be worsening for Alaska Sen. Ted Stevens. As of about an hour ago, election officials in the Frostbite State announced that the latest vote counts show challenger Mark Begich to be widening his lead:

Mr. Begich, the Democratic mayor of Anchorage, has pulled ahead of Mr. Stevens, the Republican incumbent, by 2,374 votes. Mr. Begich has 146,286 votes and Mr. Stevens, 143,912. But elections officials caution that there are still 7,700 additional absentee ballots to be counted today, so the numbers could change in a few hours.

Not that any of this much matters to Uncle Ted. He’s going off to prison. But the GOP wants to be able to keep his Senate seat in its column. Alaska, after all, is arguably the reddest state in the Union. It’s only had a handful of senators in its entire history of statehood. One died in office; another, Frank Murkowski, appointed his daughter to take his place after being elected governor. An Alaskan senator has never lost a general election, so it’s easy to see why the GOP wouldn’t want the Democrats to get their foot in the door.

If the Alaska Senate seat does go to Begich, Republicans will be that much more desperate to keep Saxby in place. Things are getting more interesting all the time…

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Shortly before the election, I offered $10 to the Fresh Loaf reader who most closely guessed the outcome of the presidential popular vote, and an additional $10 to the person who got closest to the Electoral College count.

To get the crowd inspired, I offered my own guesses, Obama over McCain 53 percent to 45% in the popular vote and 355 to 183 in the Electoral College.

As it turned out, Obama nabbed 52.7 percent and McCain 46.0. Assuming Missouri goes to McCain (which I am) , the E.C. goes to Obama 365 to 173.

I’m usually a terrible prognosticator, but this time I did pretty well. In fact, I actually tied for the best guess in both categories.

Alas, it’s no fun to hand myself money, so I’m gonna fork over the cash to the people I tied with.

Popular Vote:

Jim V and Decaturite both guessed 54 to 46, which put them just 1.3 percent off. You each get $5 of my hardly earned dollars.

Electoral College:

Jeffy guessed Obama 375 to 163.

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Even though Wednesday’s Bill Clinton rally for U.S. Senate Democratic nominee Jim Martin at Clark Atlanta University is free, organizers urge those who are interested in attending to pick up a ticket at Metro Atlanta campaign offices. Here are details:

Tickets to Clinton rally available at Campaign for Change offices

ATLANTA – Tickets to Wednesday’s “America is Back” rally with Democratic Senate candidate Jim Martin and President Bill Clinton are now available at six Campaign for Change offices in metro Atlanta. The rally is to be held at Clark Atlanta University’s Vivian W. Henderson Gymnasium. Doors open at 4:00 pm and the program begins at 4:30 pm.

The event is free and open to the public, but obtaining tickets beforehand is strongly recommended. Tickets are available at the following locations:

DeKalb County
2752 E. Ponce De Leon
Suite G
Decatur, GA 30030

Clayton County
2745 Mount Zion Road
Jonesboro, GA 30206

Fulton County
Morris Brown Office
643 Martin Luther King Drive
Atlanta, GA 30309

Fulton County
1020 Woodstock Road
Suite 2108
Roswell, GA 30075

Cobb County
1200 Cobb Parkway N.
Suite 700
Marietta, GA 30062

Gwinnett County
3245 Lawrenceville-Suwanee Road
Suwanee, GA 30024

Those interested in attending may also RSVP here.

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Public Service Commission Republican nominee Lauren “Bubba” McDonald just can’t seem to catch a break.

After a narrow July 15 primary win over energy consultant Pam Davidson and a nail-bitin’ General Election that must be decided in a Dec. 2 runoff, McDonald now has to attend a big-name fundraiser at Atlanta law firm Hall Booth Smith & Slover. The invitation promises the Bubba we know so well will do outlandish and wacky things if he gets elected. Like pursue renewable energy! The gall of these political patrons!

From a fundraiser invitation slipped to us by a tipster:

Friends,

I know this election season has been very, very long and folks have gotten inundated with calls, letters, emails, etc., but I’d like to reach out to y’all for this run-off race which will be watched all over the country and urge you to get back out and vote for Saxby and Bubba on Dec. 2nd or by Early or Absentee ballot. A Saxby win will allow the Republicans to at least have a voice in Washington DC and a Bubba win will be bring us one step closer to Energy Independence with his focus on biomass, clean coal, and nuclear energy.

On behalf of the Governor, Lt. Governor, Speaker, the Republican members of the Public Service Commission, Sen. David Shafer (Chairman of the Senate Regulated Industries & Utilities Committee), Rep. Mike Jacobs, and our terrific Host Committee, I would like to invite you to the following Reception (please print the attached .pdf invitation for directions and campaign contribution info):

Please join Governor Sonny Perdue, Lt. Governor Casey Cagle, Speaker Glenn Richardson, Chmn. Chuck Eaton, Comm. Stan Wise, Comm. Doug Everett, Sen. David Shafer, and the members of the Host Committee at a Campaign Fundraiser for Lauren “Bubba” McDonald, Jr.

WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 19, 2008
5:00 PM — 7:00 PM

AT THE OFFICES OF

Hall Booth Smith & Slover
1180 West Peachtree Street NW
Atlantic Center Plaza, Suite 900
Atlanta, GA 30309

Please RSVP to [redacted] at [redacted] or [redacted] by Monday, November 17, 2008

- [redacted]

Let it be noted that McDonald’s campaign contribution list reads like a summit gathering of powerful utility lobbyists and lawyers. Biomass was — and still is — one of the issues Jim Powell, a 35-year veteran of the U.S. Department of Energy and McDonald’s Democratic opponent in the  runoff, has pushed the hardest.

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While I was up in Washington, D.C. and New York City on a fact-finding mission, it looks like y’all had a helluva time. Mayor Shirley Franklin asked the feds for a life preserver, the Georgia Department of Transportation decided years-old e-mails of a lascivious nature weren’t grounds for dismissal (use Gchat, Gena!), Buckhead was — gasp — called overdeveloped, and the DeKalb County Courthouse was visited by Peter, Ray and Egon. Oh yeah, and some guy who lost a presidential election visited. And there was also this news.

Sure, all I have to show for my hedonistic jaunt are a lot of blisters and FedEx receipts because I shipped all my books, DVDs and tiger-taming gear from my old NYC apartment to Decatur. But it’s good to be back. I’m eager to get back into covering the U.S. Senate and Public Service Commission races and all the other sordid beats. And finally getting the pedicure that I, being the “prominent journalist” that I am, promised a lucky lady. Viva Atlanta! Viva Creative Loafing! Viva chaos!

How was your week, Atlanta?

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Usually the Libertarians end up siding with Republicans. Not so in the Public Service Commission Dec. 2 runoff between Republican Lauren “Bubba” McDonald and Democratic nominee Jim Powell.

Brandon Givens, the Libertarian challenger for the seat who received the strongest showing by a third-party candidate in the Nov. 4 General Election, has announced his endorsement for Powell in the Dec. 2 runoff.

From the Powell campaign:

“After speaking with Mr. Jim Powell I’ve discovered that he too has the vision for a new system that would allow for both a free market in energy and a growth in green technology,” Givens said in a news release. “Mr. Powell also shares my strong opposition to ex parte communications, the behind-closed-doors dealings between PSC members and the industries they are charged with regulating. He will stand up for transparency in government. I strongly encourage all voters, Libertarian and fiscally conservative to vote for Jim Powell.”

…

“I congratulate Brandon Givens on the strong race that he ran and bringing attention to many of the important issues in this campaign,” Powell said. “I am honored to have his support in the runoff election.”

Powell has also been endorsed by incumbent Public Service Commissioner Angela Speir, former Republican candidate Pam Davidson, and four of the state’s major daily newspapers: the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, the Savannah Morning News. the Rome News-Tribune and the Waycross Journal-Herald.

Powell won the popular vote in both the Democratic primary and the Nov. 4 General Election. He also fought a long and tiresome battle with Georgia Secretary of State Karen Handel over his residency. Just one week before the General Election, the state Supreme Court  ruled he was eligible to run.

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The blog Strange Maps lays a map of southern cotton production in 1860 atop a map of county-level Presidential election results from November 4:

(Hat-tip: Andrew Sullivan)

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From the Martin campaign:

EVENT DETAILS FOR BILL CLINTON RALLY FOR MARTIN AT CLARK ATLANTA UNIVERSITY
Former President will tout Martin’s ability to work with President-Elect Obama to Fix the Economy, Change the Direction of the Country

UPDATED EVENT DETAILS:

LOCATION:
Clark Atlanta University
Vivian W. Henderson Gymnasium
650 Fair Street SW
Atlanta, GA

DOORS OPEN TO PUBLIC:
4:00 PM

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Former President Bill Clinton will visit Atlanta on Wednesday to rally for U.S. Senate Democratic nominee Jim Martin.

From the Martin campaign:

Clinton and Martin will appear together to tout Martin’s ability to work with President-elect Barack Obama to fix the economy and change the direction of the economy for middle class Georgians. Clinton has been a strong supporter of Martin’s from the start, joining him in Georgia during the general election and now stumping for him in the runoff.

…

Additional details about the president’s visit to follow.

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Word on the street is that Sen. John McCain will join Sen. Saxby Chambliss Thursday at 6:00 p.m. for a fundraiser at downtown’s 191 Club. The event is hosted by former Georgia-Pacific CEO Pete Correll and Cousins Properties CEO Tom Bell. Cousins HQ is in the same building as the 191 Club, 191 Peachtree.

Chambliss faces a run-off election next month against Democratic challenger Jim Martin. CL’s Scott Henry reported yesterday that McCain and Chambliss will also appear together Thursday at Cobb Energy Center.

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They’ll do it every time. One of the great ironies of our democracy is that we leave election law up to politicians.

We figured it was only a matter of time until Georgia Republicans, distraught over last week’s elections, began suggesting tweaks to voting guidelines. It’s the political equivalent of Monday-morning quarterbacking – except that, instead of second-guessing failed plays by the losing team, you day-dream about how the rules might have been changed to produce a different outcome.

I should note that both parties do this – in fact, the Democrats may have started it after Wyche Fowler lost the 1992 Senate runoff – and it’s pretty scuzzy every time it happens.

You’ll remember, of course, that state Sen. Eric Johnson, R-Savannah, started the ball rolling back in October when he called early voting “a mistake” after the GOP noticed that the wrong people seemed to be going to the polls. Then, only a day or so after the election, attorney Stefan Passantino, who heads the political law group for McKenna Long & Aldridge, Georgia’s most politically influential law firm, wrote an op-ed for the AJC in which he brazenly lambasted early voting as “uncontrolled voting.” Trust me, it’s got to be read to be believed. (more…)

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Fresh off getting shellacked in last week’s presidential election, Arizona Sen. John McCain is coming to Atlanta to stump for Georgia’s embattled Sen. Saxby Chambliss.

Zell and the Colonel

Well, of course, he’s not actually coming to Atlanta itself. That’s not the real America. Instead, he’ll appear just inside Cobb County at the Cobb Energy Center at 4:30 p.m. on Thursday.

There’s talk that Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin may appear on behalf of Saxby as well, but it won’t be on this trip. Nor will McCain be accompanied by Joe the Plumber.

Oddly, the Georgia GOP’s website contains no mention of Thursday’s rally, but it does list a Saturday event you’ll no doubt want to attend. At 12:30 p.m., Saxby will appear at Poole’s BBQ in Ellijay. For many years now, the restaurant’s owner, Col. Poole — who resembles a taller, older Sonny Perdue — has appeared at Republican gatherings in his trademark canary-yellow suit and outsized red-white-and-blue top hat.

(more…)

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The New York Times, with much gravitas, and Gawker, with much faux-condescension, are reporting that, in politics, the South no longer matters.

Says Gawker:

Good news, Fake America—we’ve marginalized The South! The New York Times reports today that based on the totally conclusive 2008 election results, no longer will The South have any impact whatsoever on National Politics, and we can safely ignore them.

Best Gawker comment:

Well, if Florida is America’s penis, it’s the “balls” of the Redneck Riviera that has the rash.

Most reasoned Gawker comment:

This is not the south that went Red. This is the really, really, really racist part of the south. Missississippi, Ga and SC went more blue.

Most obvious display of Deep South stereotyping by a Times photographer:

This guy.

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Jeanne Cummings of The Politico writes about the Saxby Chambliss-Jim Martin runoff:

President-elect Barack Obama may risk some of his newly earned political capital in Georgia, where a Dec. 2 Senate runoff could move Democrats a step closer toward a filibuster-proof, 60-vote majority in the upper chamber.

Cummings, who was a reporter for the AJC in the early ’90s, writes of “eerie similarities” between Obama’s dilemma and President-elect Clinton campaigning in the 1992 runoff that Democratic Sen. Wyche Fowler lost against Paul Coverdell.

… Republicans crowed that it was a signal of Clinton’s already weakened political standing.

Clinton’s allies scoffed at the criticism, but it stung, all the same.

Clinton’s experience and the history of runoffs suggest that Obama’s safest course may be to keep some distance.

That could be one reason McCain’s committed to campaign for Chambliss while Martin hasn’t yet secured a visit from Obama. Then again, the president-elect’s probably a bit more busy.

Obama may end up helping with support from his campaign’s Internet lists and radio ads geared toward increasing black turnout in the runoff, rather than by stumping the state, according to one of Cummings’ sources.

See the full story: “Senate runoff a test for Obama.”

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Has Fulton County become the GOP’s election scapegoat or is some ulterior motive at work in Secretary of State Karen Handel’s call for a state investigations and threats of possible criminal prosecution?

As the AJC has doggedly been reporting, Handel has expressed outrage that Fulton took three days to count its absentee ballots, long after all other counties had turned in their results. Under state Elections Board rules, counties are supposed to keep ballot-counters on the job until they’re finished – or unless the Secretary of State’s office give them permission to break for the night.

Fulton officials called Handel’s office early Wednesday morning to see if the counters go home to get some sleep. She said no. They went home anyway.

(more…)

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UPDATE: Bah, semantics! Received word that I garbled some of the terminology on the post. It’s been corrected.

Were you one of the 2 million Georgians who enjoyed his or her early voting experience? The long lines, the new friends, the chance you may have ended up as a “missed connection” on Craigs List?

Good news! Absentee and early voting will be available for the Dec. 2 runoff.

After Georgia Secretary of State Karen Handel certifies election results next week, state election maestros and county election officials will start coordinating the runoff.

Matt Carrothers, Handel’s spokesman, told me these details over the phone a few minutes ago:

Early voting is anticipated to begin Nov. 17. According to Handel’s office:

Counties can begin early voting. While it is a county-by-county decision, there should be consistency state-wide.

Advance voting will be held Monday through Wednesday (Nov. 24-26) during the week of Thanksgiving. County election offices are closed Thursday and Friday because of the holiday.

If you voted by mail-in or absentee ballot in the General Election, you’ll have to re-request a ballot. You can download an application at the Secretary of State’s website or pick one up at your county election office. (Or just click here.) To find your county election office, click here. Applications can either be dropped off, mailed, or faxed as well.

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No one really expected Georgia’s U.S. Senate race to be this tough, cost this much or last this long. Incumbent Republican Saxby Chambliss started off with more money than God, favorable approval ratings, and a late-in-the-game Democratic challenger whose heart, critics said, seemed to be elsewhere. And the Libertarian nominee Allen Buckley? Puh-lease.

But then Wall Street had its meltdown and Congress threw it a gold-plated life preserver. Chambliss was among the 74 senators who voted for the bailout package in a move that angered a great number of conservatives — and royally pissed off Libertarians.

And according to results of Tuesday’s General Election, Buckley gobbled up more than 100,000 votes that arguably would’ve gone to Chambliss. Why do I think that? Buckley’s take for the night was 127,050 votes, or 3.4 percent of people who voted in the race. Libertarian Presidential nominee Bob Barr only snatched 28,583, or 0.7 percent. And everyone — including me — was wondering what impact the presidential race would have on contests farther down the ticket.

After the jump is a transcript of a chat I had nearly two months ago when I interviewed Tom Perdue, the political veteran who managed Chambliss’ campaign, for a story I wrote about the U.S. Senate race.

(more…)

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