Fresh Loaf

No one really expected Georgia’s U.S. Senate race to be this tough, cost this much or last this long. Incumbent Republican Saxby Chambliss started off with more money than God, favorable approval ratings, and a late-in-the-game Democratic challenger whose heart, critics said, seemed to be elsewhere. And the Libertarian nominee Allen Buckley? Puh-lease.

But then Wall Street had its meltdown and Congress threw it a gold-plated life preserver. Chambliss was among the 74 senators who voted for the bailout package in a move that angered a great number of conservatives — and royally pissed off Libertarians.

And according to results of Tuesday’s General Election, Buckley gobbled up more than 100,000 votes that arguably would’ve gone to Chambliss. Why do I think that? Buckley’s take for the night was 127,050 votes, or 3.4 percent of people who voted in the race. Libertarian Presidential nominee Bob Barr only snatched 28,583, or 0.7 percent. And everyone — including me — was wondering what impact the presidential race would have on contests farther down the ticket.

After the jump is a transcript of a chat I had nearly two months ago when I interviewed Tom Perdue, the political veteran who managed Chambliss’ campaign, for a story I wrote about the U.S. Senate race.

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The polling organization says incumbent Republican Saxby Chambliss leads Democratic nominee Jim Martin 48-43. It also says if Libertarian nominee Allen Buckley’s support remains consistent, a runoff is likely.

Says Rasmussen:

Senator Saxby Chambliss leads Democratic challenger Jim Martin by five percentage points in his bid for re-election in Georgia. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of the race finds the Republican incumbent with 48% of the vote and Martin with 43%. Libertarian Party candidate Allen Buckley picks ups seven percent (7%) of the vote while two percent (2%) remain undecided.

But, under Georgia law, a candidate must win at least 50% of the vote or face a run-off election in December.

If Buckley’s support stays at current levels, it would be difficult for either Chambliss or Martin to win the majority needed to avoid a run-off. It is also possible, however, that some Buckley supporters may choose instead to vote for one of the major party candidates.

A week ago Chambliss was ahead by just two points, the closest the race has been all year and the highest level of support for Martin, whose campaign has spent roughly half-a-million dollars on attack ads against Chambliss over the past month. Just three weeks ago, Chambliss held a six-point lead.

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So what if Libertarian Allen Buckley got enough votes to keep both Saxby Chambliss and Jim Martin from topping 50 percent in the Nov. 4 election? They’d face each other in a Dec. 2 runoff. But which candidate would have the advantage?

It depends on the conventional-wisdom theory you go with.

CW theory #1: Incumbents often lose when they’re forced into runoffs, because people who supported the other candidates are more likely to swing their support to another challenger than to support the status quo.

CW theory #2: Republicans generally win runoffs in Georgia because whites go back to the polls in higher proportions than blacks. (more…)

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Jesus, a guy goes to City Hall for two hours and a shitstorm erupts. Well, here’s our take on what happened.

So there’s this internal memo of very questionable origin floating around that’s purported to be from a top political consulting firm. And it’s addressed to a PAC that’s allegedly pushing for U.S. Sen. Saxby Chambliss. On Monday morning, the scandalous document puttered out of our fax machine with no name attached. (You can read all about the memo — hell, even read the memo itself — here.)

In it, tales of doom are told. The most frightening of which is that post-debate poll numbers showed Libertarian Party nominee Allen Buckley eating into Chambliss’ support. Lest something is done to ruin Buckley’s standing with undecided voters, the document says, the incumbent Republican could surely face a runoff or even lose his seat to Democratic nominee Jim Martin.

Dear God, please — say it ain’t so.

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This is going to be an interesting week. And a busy one.

Pollster, a website that somehow eats every single political poll IN THE WORLD and then burps them out in color-coded maps, says Georgia is now a “toss up” between John McCain and Barack Obama. Yep, Georgia.

Wonkette says no way, but we’ll see.

Pollster’s also calling “toss up” about Georgia’s U.S. Senate seat. Nearly everyone thought incumbent Republican Saxby Chambliss would easily win a second term in his race against Democratic nominee Jim Martin and Libertarian challenger Allen Buckley. Turns out all of ‘em — me included — were wrong. Signs point to a run off in that race.

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The latest Strategic Vision poll has Republican John McCain beating Democrat Barack Obama in Georgia 51 to 45. The margin of error is 3.

The same poll has Sen. Saxby Chambliss with a two-point lead over Democratic challenger Jim Martin. Libertarian Allen Buckley is at 5%.

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InsiderAdvantage, the polling firm/political newsletter run by former GOP legislator Matt Towery, says both the presidential race and the U.S. Senate race have narrowed to become virtual toss-ups in Georgia. Here’s the results of a poll his firm took Thursday of 615 likely voters:

Presidential
Obama, 48 percent
McCain, 47 percent
Other, 2 percent
Undecided, 3 percent

U.S. Senate
Chambliss, 44 percent
Martin, 42 percent
Buckley, 2 percent
Undecided, 12 percent

The margin of error is 3.8 percent, meaning both races are coin flips. Towery, however, seems to give both Obama and Martin the edge:

The senate race appears in my judgment either headed for a runoff or a Martin win, and here’s why I say that: over 15 percent of blacks say they still are undecided.

Saxby needs to find a Bubba the Plumber real quick!

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Rasmussen reports U.S. Sen. Saxby Chambliss’ leads Democratic nominee Jim Martin by just two points.

From the polling organization:

The U.S. Senate race in Georgia has grown a whole lot closer over the past two weeks. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state finds GOP incumbent Saxby Chambliss leading Democratic challenger Jim Martin by just 47% to 45%.

This is the closest the race has been all year and the highest level of support for Martin, whose campaign has spent roughly half-a-million dollars on attack ads against Chambliss over the past month. Just two weeks ago, Chambliss held a six-point lead.

Libertarian Party candidate Allen Buckley earns one percent (1%) of the vote in the latest poll.

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Now that pollsters are saying U.S. Sen. Saxby Chambliss is running the risk of losing his job, attacks are flying left and right in the race for his seat.

Once Chambliss started to feel vulnerable, he finally began mentioning the name of his Democratic nominee, Jim Martin, who was happy to just ramp up the attacks on the incumbent. And once the polls showed the race as close as even, Democratic Party heavies started pouring money into the state. (Martin outraised Chambliss in the third quarter.) Even Libertarian Party nominee Allen Buckley  is lobbing Molotov commercials at Chambliss’ camp. (I’d like to add Buckley to the list of people Martin needs to thank should he unseat Chambliss.)

Well, Martin’s got a new shame-on-you-Saxby spot that says while he pushed for legislation and facilities that helped Georgia children, the incumbent Republican’s just worked for Wall Street.

Check out CL’s 2008 Voter’s Guide and add your comments to races you care about. It continues to be updated, and on Oct. 21, come back to find a handy cheat-sheet to guide to the voting booth.

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Last night’s U.S. Senate Debate in Perry, Ga. sounds like it was a helluva time. Anger similar to that reported elsewhere was present.

From the Associated Press’ Shannon McCaffrey’s telling of events:

Chambliss supporters waved “Saxby” signs and offered up a sustained “boos” when Martin mentioned Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama.

“Bomb Obama,” one woman hollered.

From Jim Tharpe’s AJC report:

One of [Democrat nominee Jim] Martin’s answers was obliterated by jeers from [U.S. Sen. Saxby] Chambliss backers — most of them from middle Georgia — when Martin alluded to U.S. Sen. Barack Obama being sworn in as president. Some audience members shouted, “No Bama!”

Also at the event were Bernita from BlogForDemocracy — she liveblogged the event — and the Macon Telegraph’s Travis Fain. Fain’s write-up of the debate can be viewed here. If there are any Chambliss supporters who attended or covered the event, leave your thoughts about the debate in the comments or send me a link to what you wrote about it.

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Allen Buckley, the Libertarian nominee for U.S. Senate, has three new radio ads targeting incumbent Republican Saxby Chambliss. Whereas the first ads focused on Chambliss’ spending policies and his first term in the U.S. Senate, these spots — which don’t mention Buckley’s name or say he approved the ads — look at the incumbent’s ties with Imperial Sugar and his “bum knee” that got him out of serving in Vietnam. One even depicts a phone call between a soldier in Iraq and his mother talking about Imperial Sugar, the Savannah sugar refinery that exploded earlier this year and killed 14 people.

Just like the first set of ads, these ones are quite interesting. The Imperial Sugar ad will be targeted around Savannah, the “Chambliss deferments from Vietnam” ad will be aimed at Columbus and Augusta, and the one that discusses Chambliss’ alleged role in the nation’s faltering economy will be geared toward smaller Georgia towns where workers are most likely feeling the pinch.

The gentleman who dropped off the ads at CL’s offices — the same man-in-the-bad-Hawaiian-shirt who gave me the first set of spots a few weeks back — says the Buckley campaign has been working with a 527 to promote the candidate’s message. He declined to name the group, but said it’s “not a Libertarian one.” He said the campaign is also reaching out to Chambliss’ old Sigma Chi brothers from the University of Georgia for information about his deferments. (”We hear Saxby used to like to play football behind the house,” he said.)

Follow the jump to hear the ads and read the scripts.

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U.S. Sen. Saxby Chambliss now holds only a three point lead over Democratic nominee Jim Martin, a new poll commissioned by the Mellman Group finds. The poll of 600 likely voters conducted Sept. 24-28 shows Chambliss with a 37-34 lead over the former state lawmaker. Libertarian nominee Allen Buckley received three percent.

From the Martin campaign:

The new numbers show that Chambliss is more vulnerable than ever, despite a month’s worth of television ads from his campaign. Only 27% of Georgia voters now think that Chambliss is doing a “good” or “excellent” job in the Senate, down from 37% in a previous Mellman Group poll in August.

“Saxby Chambliss has been on TV since late August, but it’s clear now that the voters aren’t buying what he’s selling,” Martin campaign manager Ellery Gould said. “Maybe that’s because he’s been telling Georgians that ‘the American Dream is more possible today than ever before.’ Meanwhile, the middle class is struggling and we’re getting stuck with one last bill for the failures of Bush/Saxby Economics: a $700 billion bailout because of the deregulation of Wall Street that Chambliss supported in Washington.”

It should be noted that this poll was commissioned by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. But anytime an incumbent is under 40 percent in the polls, that’s cause for concern. A mid-September Rasmussen poll found Chambliss maintained a seven-point lead over Martin for two consecutive months.

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U.S. Senate Libertarian candidate Allen Buckley released four ads last week blasting Saxby Chambliss, the Republican incumbent.

“Saxby Chambliss spends your money like a drunken sailor — $3 million for golf lessons, $110 million to help Gallo wines and Sunkist advertise… Maybe your money would be safer with a drunken sailor. No offense to drunken sailors.”

— The first of Buckley’s four radio ads

“Have you been to the emergency room lately? Did you bring an interpreter? Thank you. Do you know what a fiscal conservative is? Neither does Saxby.”

— The third Buckley ad, narrated by an angry male

“Who the hell is paying him?/It’s a long list so listen in./Big law lobbyists and big oil, too/He ain’t concerned what’s good for you/Illegal immigrants at my door./Saxby says make room for more.”

— Buckley ad with a military-style cadence

(Photo by Joeff Davis)

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A new poll from 11Alive shows U.S. Sen. Saxby Chambliss with a strong lead over Jim Martin and Allen Buckley, his respective Democratic and Libertarian opponents in the race.

From the home of the late and legendary Guy Sharpe:

Incumbent Republican US Senator Saxby Chambliss has a comfortable lead over Democratic challenger Jim Martin and Libertarian Allen Buckley. If the election were held today, Chambliss would defeat Martin and Buckley, 53 percent to 36 percent and 8 percent, respectively. While Buckley’s overall polling total was comparatively low, according to the polling data, the third party candidate would receive 22 percent of the vote from independents, 11 percent from those under 50, and 24 percent from those who rarely go to church. The data suggests that Buckley’s votes would come primarily from Martin as opposed to Chambliss.

The last sentence is interesting. Libertarians think they could have a chance to swipe some votes from Chambliss’ base. This poll suggests that’s unlikely.

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It’s the biggest night of the year for Georgia Libertarians. Daniel Adams, the state party chairman, seems energized and a bit anxious as he crisscrosses the room greeting guests. In a few minutes, the Libertarian Party’s 2008 presidential nominee is expected to arrive as the guest of honor, and Adams wants his group’s chief fundraising banquet to exceed everyone’s expectations.

Compared with most big-city political confabs, however, this one feels a bit, well, small-time. The Dunwoody hotel setting is nice enough, but the ballroom space is so cavernous it makes the modest crowd appear even smaller. The ill-fitting blazers and mismatched ties worn by some guests suggest a blue-collar demographic that’s a far cry from the cliques of deep-pocketed lawyers and lobbyists who typically haunt such events. Then there are the guys who stand out because of their long hair or eccentric appearance, such as an older man wearing a black leather jacket and a black T-shirt dotted with white skulls.

It’s no stretch to imagine that the largely male, suburban, middle-aged, outsiderish gathering of white folks wouldn’t feel out of place at Dragon*Con. Which is fitting, since Dragon*Con founder Ed Kramer is among the attendees, dressed head-to-toe in black and wheeling about on an electric scooter.

When former Congressman Bob Barr and wife Jeri arrive at the reception, there’s no public-address announcement, no Secret Service detail and no sudden crush of well-wishers seeking face time with the would-be president. Most of the people here have met Barr before and are content to wait as he makes his way around the room exchanging pleasantries, shaking hands and posing for photographs. The only TV cameraman at the event snags a quickie interview with the presidential candidate, then heads for the door.

Read the rest of this article here.

(Photo by Joeff Davis)

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When a man in a bad Hawaiian shirt invites you into his pick-up truck to “hear something,” it’s quite normal to be apprehensive.

That was the case a couple of hours ago when I scooted over to Octane to meet with this mysterious gent, a “Libertarian community activist” who asked I refer to him by his shirt. He was happy to pass along four new radio ads from Allen Buckley, the Libertarian Party candidate who’s trying to unseat U.S. Sen. Saxby Chambliss. The ads, which slam the Republican incumbent, started airing today on 920 AM (WGKA), home to such far-right syndicated scholars as Hugh Hewitt, Bill Bennett and Michael Medved.

Buckley’s been relentless in his attack on the Republican incumbent. The Libertarian’s trying to pull some of Chambliss’ base, and call me crazy, but such a tactic could bode well for Jim Martin, the Democratic nominee. The former state lawmaker, according to an August Rasmussen poll, trails the incumbent by six points. Look for the Libertarians to harp on the cozy relationship he’s enjoyed with Imperial Sugar. (Chambliss received $21,500 in campaign funds from the Texas-based company whose Savannah refinery exploded earlier this year, killing 13 workers. Chambliss later berated a company whistleblower.)

We gave Buckley’s campaign a call to confirm the ads were his and the candidate called us back. (They’re legit, he says.) When posed with the statement that he was hitting Chambliss rather hard, Buckley replied, “I think he’s bad news. Martin’s a good guy. I like Jim. But I’m what we need at this time in our country.”

Drill Instructor: “Illegal immigrants at my door, Saxby says make room for more.” (30 seconds)

“Saxby Chambliss spends money like a drunken sailor.” (30 seconds)

“Have you been to the emergency room lately? Did you bring an interpreter? Thank YOU, Saxby.” (30 seconds)

Child: “Saxby spent all the money for social security on pork” (30 seconds)

More ads are supposedly on the way. Muchas gracias, bad-Hawaiian-shirt-wearing dude. Don’t be a stranger, now!

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A top campaign aide insisted that Republican U.S. Sen. Saxby Chambliss wants to include Libertarian Allen Buckley in debates. But Buckley complained last week that Chambliss doesn’t want to debate.

“We didn’t wait for the Democrat to say that the Libertarian should not be involved in the debate, because that’s generally what the Democrat does. They don’t want the Libertarian involved in the debate. We said the Libertarian would be involved in all the debates. If he doesn’t want to show up that’s his business.”

— Tom Perdue, Chambliss’ campaign consultant, in a Sept. 4 interview with CL

“Saxby is running from his record. His goal is clear: to minimize debates and blast the airwaves from now until the election with commercials stating that he ‘represents our conservative values.’ He doesn’t represent my values. Let’s debate as much as possible.”

— Buckley in a Sept. 10 press release

“We have no comment.”

— Kate Hansen, a campaign spokeswoman for Democratic candidate Jim Martin

(Photo by Joeff Davis)

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Allen Buckley, the Libertarian Party candidate for U.S. Sen. Saxby Chambliss‘ seat, came out with a one-two punch today against the Republican incumbent, accusing him of a shoddy voting record and sidestepping debates in which he previously agreed to participate with Buckley and Jim Martin, the former state lawmaker and Democratic challenger.

First, the debate issue. Jim Galloway wrote a good run-down of events over at the AJC’s Political Insider. In essence, the three camps agreed to eight to ten debates both in Georgia and Washington, D.C. in order to accommodate Chambliss. Buckley now says Chambliss has pulled back, and he’s accusing the well-funded incumbent of trying to carpetbomb the airwaves with commercials rather than defend his record with evidence.

As for Chambliss’ voting record, Buckley sent out a press release this morning accusing him of having “the record of being a liberal spender.”

Examples of that spending are posted after the jump.

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How would you like some face time with a real-life presidential nominee whose first name starts with a “B”?

That’s right – this Saturday, for only $100 a ticket, you can attend a cocktails-and-dinner fund-raiser in Dunwoody with Libertarian presidential candidate Bob Barr. Who’d you think we were talking about?

Enticingly titled “An Evening with Bob Barr,” the event also will feature appearances by fellow Libertarians, Senate candidate Allen Buckley, PSC candidates John Monds and Brandon Givens – and, if you’re lucky, current Johns Creek City Councilwoman Karen Richardson.

Anyway, if you want to go, the Georgia Libertarian Party would love to have you.  Register here.

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