Fresh Loaf

The AJC reports home prices in Atlanta declined 4.8 percent between January 2007 and January 2008, according to the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller Home Price Index.

The story is correct, but leaves out a couple of interesting and, unfortunately gloomy details.

1) Atlanta home prices peaked later than most of the other markets in the index. Atlanta didn’t peak until July 2007. Most of the other markets measured in the index were already in decline by early 2007. Atlanta home prices are actually down 6.9 percent since the July 2007. 6.9 percent in six months is a steep drop.

2) Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller does not measure condo prices. The Wall Street Journal reported last week that condo prices in Atlanta declined 12 percent in 2007.

The Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, in all its spreadsheety glory, is available here.

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Atlanta’s intown real estate market was never as bubblicious as California, Florida, New York or Boston. Nevertheless, Atlanta’s real estate market, particularly the condo market, has taken a big hit during the past year.

From the Wall Street Journal (emphasis mine):

The median condo sales price in the Cape Coral-Fort Myers area of Florida fell 26% to $202,300 in the fourth quarter of 2007 from $273,400 a year earlier.

Prices dropped nearly 20% in Tucson, Ariz., and 12% in the Atlanta area during that time, according to National Association of Realtors data.

2008 is likely to be just as lousy, if not more so, as the current supply glut gets, er, gluttier:

More than 4,000 new units will be completed in both Atlanta and Phoenix by the end of the year . . .

That’s potentially great news if you plan to buy a condo and stay there for 10 years. But lousy news if you’re trying to sell a condo, or a house anywhere near similarly priced condos.

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