Fresh Loaf

A new Insider Advantage poll shows Mary Norwood’s still the frontrunner in the Atlanta mayor’s race with 45 percent support. Kasim Reed trails with 25 percent. Lisa Borders, who until two weeks ago was second in the race, is third with 16 percent. Jesse Spikes is in the low single digits. Eleven percent of the poll respondents were undecided. (Here’s a link to a PDF of the poll’s crosstabs.)

So sayeth pollster Matt Towery, CEO of IA:

“Based on this survey, if the election were held today, Norwood would likely be within one or two percent of winning the race without a runoff. Her barrage of ads and the apparent decline in Borders’ support suggests that white voters are moving to Norwood. That said, Reed now appears to be the African-American candidate with substantial support from the black community.

What’s interesting about the mayor’s race right now: It’s about image rather than platforms.

Borders, Reed and even the Georgia Democratic Party have accused Norwood of being a Republican. Norwood, who invited the criticism after she said earlier this week that she couldn’t remember if she ever voted for George W. Bush, responded with a TV ad. In it, she rattles off the names of Democrats and even Ross Perot, which, in my opinion, might’ve done her more harm than good.

The Reed campaign today issued a statement calling the Norwood spot a “slick and calculated denial of her well-documented Republican past” and a “scheme to trick Atlanta’s Democratic majority into making a false choice on the eve of this election.”

Political wonks take note: Campaign disclosure reports, which’ll tell us how much cash each candidate has to spend in the final days before Nov. 3, are due today at 5 p.m.

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President Sonny Perdue. It’s got a nice and rather frightening ring to it, dontcha think?

An Insider Advantage piece that says the governor’s rumored to be lining up a post-office position as  University of Georgia president recently caught the eyes of those rapscallions at the Marietta Daily Journal. Here’s some of what the MDJ cribbed from the IA article, which is now available only for subscribers:

As the storyline goes, Perdue — who is joined at the hip with UGA President Michael Adams — would consider being named by the Board of Regents as president of the University of Georgia at the end of his term. In exchange for the creation of an open seat via the resignation of Adams, Adams would then be in strong consideration to become the system’s new chancellor. Sound crazy? Well … so did borrowing $21 million in the middle of a world financial meltdown. But Perdue pulled that one off didn’t he?

A commenter at the AJC’s Political Insider column speculates that Perdue’s recent appointment of former House Majority Leader and Georgia Department of Transportation board member Larry Walker to the Board of Regents could help the governor transition from one mansion to another. The two are old buddies.

Perdue’s a UGA alum and would probably be delighted to be one of the few university graduates lucky enough to find a job in the Classic City after throwing his cap in the air. Even if it’s 40 years after the fact.

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Matt Towery — former GOP state legislator, political pollster and possessor of the most otherworldly tan this side of John Boehner — has put to work the most advanced polling tools available at his disposal and determined the Atlanta mayoral race is…a three-way tossup between Council President Lisa Borders, Councilwoman Mary Norwood and state Sen. Kasim Reed.

Oh, and furthermore, it’ll probably go to a runoff.

Well, frankly, I came to those same conclusions weeks ago and I don’t own a fancy polling firm.

But Towery goes on to share some of his insights into the dynamics of the race. Here’s Matt:

The candidate who buys substantial television post-Aug. 1 will, based on every pattern I have seen, be likely to make the runoff. There is a caveat here. That candidate must have a deep enough level of support to be able to build on the huge name identification boost he or she will receive by being daring and “going for it” early. The only way this strategy works is if the candidate is already viewed as credible and by becoming the “frontrunner,” he or she then basically scares the money on the sidelines into supplying another round of serious cash to keep the television and radio buys going until election day.

And here he offers the perspective of a jaded ex-politico:

If you think turnout will be light in November, try December. That’s where a little thing called “street money” will become critical. In the South, money paid to “consultants,” tithed to churches, donated to charities and just plain handed out has played a huge role in turnout in the black community. That tradition dried up with the 2002 race for governor between Roy Barnes and Sonny Perdue. The Barnes crowd put their money into television — in part because so many top African-American leaders had significant races of their own (or involving family members) that there seemed no need to put cash in the community.

(more…)

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Former Rep. Jeanette Jamieson, D-Toccoa

You remember state Rep. Jeanette Jamieson, D-Toccoa: She’s the veteran lawmaker who finally lost her 12th bid for reelection to a Republican challenger last year after it was revealed that she owed more than $45,000 in back state taxes. Did we mention that her day job is as an accountant and tax preparer?

Well, apparently, Attorney General Thurbert Baker didn’t think Jamieson’s gaffe was as funny as we did. According to Dick Pettys at Insider Advantage, Baker has charged his former House colleague with two counts of evading state income taxes.

Reports Pettys:

According to the announcement, count 1 alleges that in calendar year 2006, Jamieson had at least $127,000 in adjusted gross income, including income from her tax return preparation business and over $14,000 in income from her service in the Legislature, but had only $61.68 withheld from her income for state purposes and failed to file a state income tax return for the year.

Count 2 charges that during calendar year 2007, she had at least $61,000 in adjusted gross income but had only $85.08 withheld for state income tax purposes and failed to file a state return for calendar year 2007.

If convicted, she could face a possible sentence of one to five years in prison and/or a fine of up to $100,000 on each count.

The Georgia Department of Revenue has long been such a toothless, bumbling agency that’s a wonder anyone bothers to pay his state taxes. And I can’t remember the last time I heard of someone facing hard time for evasion of state income taxes. Which leads me to wonder if this high-profile indictment is intended to burnish Baker’s credibility among swing voters as a crusader for law and order — similar to his vigorous prosecution of Genarlow Wilson.

(Photo by Joeff Davis)

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Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle has announced he will drop out of the 2010 governor’s race for health reasons.

“Often times we’re dealt certain cards we have to face,” Cagle told reporters today at a press conference at the Capitol before choking up and leaving the rotunda.

“It is a degenerative spinal condition and treatment will entail significant recovery,” spokesperson Jaillene Hunter later told reporters. She did not elaborate on the name of the condition or the course of its treatment.

In other words, the treatment — which involves surgery — would likely require Cagle to stay off the campaign trail.

Dick Pettys reports Cagle told members of the Senate Republican Caucus that he would run for another term as lieutenant governor in 2010. If so, he’ll face Sen. David Shafer, R-Duluth, and Sen. Eric Johnson, R-Savannah — assuming they remain in the race following this news.

Cagle, a Gainesville Republican, was considered the front-runner to become the GOP nominee for governor. Remaining Republican candidates now include Georgia Secretary of State Karen Handel, state Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine, state Rep. Austin Scott, R-Tifton, and Ray McBerry. Possible candidates include Cobb County Chairman Sam Olens, whom Jim Galloway reports is expected to make an announcement on Friday.

(File photo by Joeff Davis)

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Ain’t no better time to replace the general than in the middle of battle, right? Uh, right?

Dick Pettys of Insider Advantage reports:

A palace revolt is brewing among members of the state Board of Transportation, and sources say it is poised to try to dump Commissioner Gena Evans on Thursday.

The board has a called meeting that day to take up budget matters. If it goes into closed session, a vote to remove Evans will likely be conducted.

…

If she is voted out, look for the governor and likely the lieutenant governor to argue that is exactly the reason why DOT should be relegated to a maintenance agency status and a new State Transportation Authority given power over policy and funding.

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Gary Reese, one of the pixel-stained wretches at InsiderAdvantage, pulls back the curtain on a piece he’s researching about the state Department of Transportation’s vote to kill a Ga. 400 project. He says it’s a “blockbuster” and one to watch.

Reese offers a lengthy 1,551-word teaser. Essentially: There’s a bigger story behind the DOT board’s decision late last year to kill a deal proposed for the “Hospitality Highway.”

He says there are a bunch of e-mails and potentially ghostwritten press releases, too. CL readers might recall a story I wrote last year about Gov. Sonny Perdue’s trip to Spain, and rumors that the jaunt would include a sit-down with executives from Cintra, everyone’s favorite private toll road company. (Perdue did indeed sit down with the firm.) Reese says Cintra — along with some other big names in finance and transportation — will play a role in his story, as well.

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Gold Dome sentinel Dick Pettys of InsiderAdvantage provides an excellent rundown of 2008’s state political stories, complete with links that give you a rare glimpse behind the online news service’s subscription firewall. If you want a good take on what happened this year, it’s all right there.

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A new InsiderAdvantage/Politico poll shows U.S. Sen. Saxby Chambliss with a three-point lead over Democratic candidate Jim Martin.

From Politico:

The poll shows Chambliss leading Martin by 3 percentage points, 50 percent to 47 percent, with 3 percent of respondents undecided. The first-term GOP senator’s lead is within the poll’s four-point margin of error. The Politico/InsiderAdvantage poll surveyed 523 likely voters on Nov. 23.

The poll numbers are almost identical to the general election results, when Chambliss fell just short of the 50 percent necessary to win the seat outright on Election Night. He led Martin 49.8 to 46.8 percent, with a Libertarian candidate taking three percent of the vote.

“This thing’s going to be a nail-biter. We don’t know who’s going to turn out and we don’t know how it’s going to turn out, but it’s going to be a close race,” said InsiderAdvantage CEO Matt Towery.

Towery says a visit from Barack Obama could change the race. Chances of such an event happening before the Dec. 2 runoff, however, seem increasingly unlikely.

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So what if Libertarian Allen Buckley got enough votes to keep both Saxby Chambliss and Jim Martin from topping 50 percent in the Nov. 4 election? They’d face each other in a Dec. 2 runoff. But which candidate would have the advantage?

It depends on the conventional-wisdom theory you go with.

CW theory #1: Incumbents often lose when they’re forced into runoffs, because people who supported the other candidates are more likely to swing their support to another challenger than to support the status quo.

CW theory #2: Republicans generally win runoffs in Georgia because whites go back to the polls in higher proportions than blacks. (more…)

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Are we dreaming? The political newsletter/polling firm InsiderAdvantage has posted an editorial that suggests … well, I’ll let you guess that from the headline: “Is Karen Handel Georgia’s Version of Katherine Harris?”

The post begins by hinting that the GOP secretary of state – and presumed 2010 gubernatorial candidate – is damaging her reputation with decisions that seem based on partisan politics. But then it takes a detour, arguing that Handel’s recent decision not to expand early voting hours will hurt Republicans:

Note to Karen: GOP voters vote before work – impossible given the current lines – or after work – sorry, parking lot full; skip the vote. As it stands, her unwillingness to extend voting hours will guarantee big problems for McCain and Chambliss.

The message seems a bit muddled, but this much is clear: We’re not the only ones who seem concerned that Handel has improperly politicized her office, an issue I wrote about last week.

I called over to see who wrote the editorial – it was unsigned – but haven’t found out yet.

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Almost everyone is surprised at how well Democrats Barack Obama and Jim Martin are faring in Georgia against their Republican counterparts John McCain and Saxby Chambliss.

One political commentator who isn’t: Matt Towery.

On June 19, the former state rep. and principal of Southern Political Report wrote the following about the 2008 election in Georgia:

“My view is that Georgia, the 9^th largest state in the nation with 15 electoral votes, will remain a major new battleground state through November. This changes the landscape of electoral politics as Georgia, North Carolina, Virginia, and perhaps another surprise southern state, join Florida as potential “swing states,” that cannot be presumed to vote Republican in 2008.”

Towery’s comments accompanied a June Insider Advantage poll showing McCain and Obama almost tied in Georgia.

(Hat-tip to Fresh Loaf commenter Poverty Wench, whose recent comment prompted me to dig through Towery’s archives.)

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InsiderAdvantage, the polling firm/political newsletter run by former GOP legislator Matt Towery, says both the presidential race and the U.S. Senate race have narrowed to become virtual toss-ups in Georgia. Here’s the results of a poll his firm took Thursday of 615 likely voters:

Presidential
Obama, 48 percent
McCain, 47 percent
Other, 2 percent
Undecided, 3 percent

U.S. Senate
Chambliss, 44 percent
Martin, 42 percent
Buckley, 2 percent
Undecided, 12 percent

The margin of error is 3.8 percent, meaning both races are coin flips. Towery, however, seems to give both Obama and Martin the edge:

The senate race appears in my judgment either headed for a runoff or a Martin win, and here’s why I say that: over 15 percent of blacks say they still are undecided.

Saxby needs to find a Bubba the Plumber real quick!

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The telephone poll of 531 likely voters shows the U.S. Senate race as dead even. Results are here. (Warning: Word document)

Chambliss 45%
Martin        45%
Other          2%
Undecided  8%

This makes three polls in the last two weeks that call it extremely close. A recent Rasmussen poll shows Democrat nominee Martin trailing incumbent Republican Chambliss by six points.

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Barack Obama’s chances in Georgia aren’t as strong as once thought, according to a new survey from InsiderAdvantage.

When asked who they would vote for if the election were held today, more than 56 percent of 506 registered likely voters said John McCain. Obama trailed with 38 percent. (Bob Barr, the Libertarian Party candidate who’s been considered a possible vote-stealer from McCain, was not included as a choice in the survey.)

Says InsiderAdvantage’s Matt Towery:

“This is a huge slide from what had been, in our prior surveys, a relatively close race. The reason is simple—Obama lost serious ground in virtually every demographic.

“At first glance it would seem that Obama is headed for no better than the low 40 percentile level achieved by John Kerry in 2004. But let me warn observers that in both our national tracking and surveys in other states, the biggest change has been a near parity between the two candidates among the youngest of voters.

“Should that group return to Obama and the African-American vote end up where we expect it to be, the race could be closer in November. But as of now Georgia is no longer a “leans McCain” state. As of this survey, Georgia is in the McCain column.”

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Some early-morning speculation on my part, fueled by caffeine and a post from InsiderAdvantage’s Dick Pettys. The George Harrison doppelganger tapped his sources who attended a business community fundraiser yesterday for House Speaker Glenn Richardson:

Richardson told the group he intends to focus on transportation, water and the state’s budget problems if re-elected as presiding officer.

Maybe the state’s current economic woes convinced Richardson he shouldn’t tackle his greatest nemesis, property taxes, as he promised he would during an April press conference he held with Gov. Sonny Perdue and Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle?

Speculate! It’s just like daydreamin’, only it leeches off reality and you’re doing it out loud!

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Matt Towery of InsiderAdvantage is convinced that operatives with the Obama presidential campaign helped scuttle Vernon Jones’ Senate bid by sending out mailers that focused on Jones’ boasts that he voted twice for George W. Bush. The rumor has been picked up by Political Insider, Peach Pundit and other local blogs.

A certain Kenneth Walker, a Jones strategist, claims that he knows “for a fact…that there was a meeting in Sen. Harry Reid’s office with David Axelrod from Obama’s campaign, and there was an agreement Obama’s campaign would help Jim Martin with the direct mail linking Vernon and George Bush.”

That’s strange. We thought Vernon and Barrack were supposed to be tight.

(more…)

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Georgia had Obamamania so bad before Super Tuesday that the O-man put the Peach State in his “win” column weeks ahead of the primary and sent his campaign ops to work in other places.

There’s a big difference in this GOP-friendly state, however, between winning among Democrats and beating a Republican in the November election. But lately folks have been questioning much more seriously whether Georgia could swing for Barack Obama.

Earlier this week, Time magazine ran a story headlined “Can Georgia Be Obama’s Ohio?” which reveals that the Obama camp has selected Georgia and Virgina as potential battleground states and is dedicating workers and resources in an effort to gain ground here:

Obama has 15 full-time paid staffers who have been in Georgia for over a month. They also have had staff in North Carolina and Virginia and have been “literally moving in dozens of people every week to all three states,” said Jon Carson, Obama’s national field director. They also expect to have staff in Mississippi, Arkansas and Louisiana before the end of the month. “It’s very hard to sit here right now to say what’s going to happen in November… Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia, Montana, North Dakota, Missouri — which of those is going to be most winnable? So our campaign is taking the approach of casting a wide net.”

It may be working. Yesterday, InsiderAdvantage released a new poll that shows Obama trailing John McCain by a single point – 43 percent to the Republican’s 44 percent – helped mightily by the Libertarian candidacy of hometown boy Bob Barr, with 6 percent.

As InsiderAdvantage CEO Matt Towery explains it:

Georgia is competitive for Obama for several reasons. First, it has a high African-American voting age population (VAP). Second, it has an unusually high percentage of younger voters (18-29). Both of these groups are more in the Obama camp, with black voters already at the 83 percent level and likely to climb.
Equally important, like its neighbor Florida, Georgia has a high percentage of voters who consider themselves independent. Obama is carrying that critical swing vote by about 10 percent in the poll.

If this trend continues it could make things very interesting come fall.

(Photo by Joeff Davis)

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A poll released yesterday adds to the evidence that Bob Barr’s presidential run may indeed have turned Georgia from a Republican stronghold into a swing state.

Insider Advantage/Poll Position shows McCain leading Obama 44-43. The poll has a +/-5 percent margin of error, which means the two candidates are essentially tied.

Libertarian candidate Bob Barr, formerly a Republican Congressman from Georgia, nabs 6 percent in the poll. The previous Insider Advantage/Poll Position survey had McCain leading Obama by 10.

Does this mean Obama is going to snatch Georgia’s 15 electoral college votes out of the Republican column come November? Not necessarily.

However, if Bob Barr continues to poll well in Georgia, McCain is going to have to spend time and money campaigning here — time and money he would prefer to spend in states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, Virginia, Nevada and New Mexico. If he can’t put Georgia in his column, McCain’s electoral college map looks grim.

For voters, Georgia’s swing state status means we can expect more public campaign appearances from the candidates than we got in 2004.

It will also mean television commercials — lots of them — touting change we can believe in, leadership we can believe in, hope we can hope for, change we can leadership in, hope we change in, etc.

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If you follow state politics in Georgia, you know InsiderAdvantage. The subscription-based news agency powered by Dick Pettys, the state’s leading Kremlinologist, sometimes gives away its stories for free. Other times, you’re confronted with a login screen.

On Sunday, they let slip one of the biggest untold stories of our time and posted a photo of Pettys from his days covering the Gold Dome in the 1970s. (Pettys is on the right.)

I’m just saying.

UPDATE: A closer look at “Pettys’” name tag raises more questions than it answers!

(Photo courtesy of InsiderAdvantage, Blatant photo illustration by Thomas Wheatley)

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Via Dick Pettys at InsiderAdvantage:

We’re hearing there was a pre-caucus meeting Thursday of House members from the 9th District in which the vote, after assuming all senators would vote for Mike Evans, was 12-11 for Evans. But that falls one vote short of the “magic number” of 13 needed to elect. As usual, these DOT rumors are difficult to confirm but this one comes from a pair of usually reliable sources.

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