Fresh Loaf

A new InsiderAdvantage/Politico poll shows U.S. Sen. Saxby Chambliss with a three-point lead over Democratic candidate Jim Martin.

From Politico:

The poll shows Chambliss leading Martin by 3 percentage points, 50 percent to 47 percent, with 3 percent of respondents undecided. The first-term GOP senator’s lead is within the poll’s four-point margin of error. The Politico/InsiderAdvantage poll surveyed 523 likely voters on Nov. 23.

The poll numbers are almost identical to the general election results, when Chambliss fell just short of the 50 percent necessary to win the seat outright on Election Night. He led Martin 49.8 to 46.8 percent, with a Libertarian candidate taking three percent of the vote.

“This thing’s going to be a nail-biter. We don’t know who’s going to turn out and we don’t know how it’s going to turn out, but it’s going to be a close race,” said InsiderAdvantage CEO Matt Towery.

Towery says a visit from Barack Obama could change the race. Chances of such an event happening before the Dec. 2 runoff, however, seem increasingly unlikely.

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So what if Libertarian Allen Buckley got enough votes to keep both Saxby Chambliss and Jim Martin from topping 50 percent in the Nov. 4 election? They’d face each other in a Dec. 2 runoff. But which candidate would have the advantage?

It depends on the conventional-wisdom theory you go with.

CW theory #1: Incumbents often lose when they’re forced into runoffs, because people who supported the other candidates are more likely to swing their support to another challenger than to support the status quo.

CW theory #2: Republicans generally win runoffs in Georgia because whites go back to the polls in higher proportions than blacks. (more…)

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Are we dreaming? The political newsletter/polling firm InsiderAdvantage has posted an editorial that suggests … well, I’ll let you guess that from the headline: “Is Karen Handel Georgia’s Version of Katherine Harris?”

The post begins by hinting that the GOP secretary of state – and presumed 2010 gubernatorial candidate – is damaging her reputation with decisions that seem based on partisan politics. But then it takes a detour, arguing that Handel’s recent decision not to expand early voting hours will hurt Republicans:

Note to Karen: GOP voters vote before work – impossible given the current lines - or after work - sorry, parking lot full; skip the vote. As it stands, her unwillingness to extend voting hours will guarantee big problems for McCain and Chambliss.

The message seems a bit muddled, but this much is clear: We’re not the only ones who seem concerned that Handel has improperly politicized her office, an issue I wrote about last week.

I called over to see who wrote the editorial – it was unsigned – but haven’t found out yet.

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Almost everyone is surprised at how well Democrats Barack Obama and Jim Martin are faring in Georgia against their Republican counterparts John McCain and Saxby Chambliss.

One political commentator who isn’t: Matt Towery.

On June 19, the former state rep. and principal of Southern Political Report wrote the following about the 2008 election in Georgia:

“My view is that Georgia, the 9^th largest state in the nation with 15 electoral votes, will remain a major new battleground state through November. This changes the landscape of electoral politics as Georgia, North Carolina, Virginia, and perhaps another surprise southern state, join Florida as potential “swing states,” that cannot be presumed to vote Republican in 2008.”

Towery’s comments accompanied a June Insider Advantage poll showing McCain and Obama almost tied in Georgia.

(Hat-tip to Fresh Loaf commenter Poverty Wench, whose recent comment prompted me to dig through Towery’s archives.)

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InsiderAdvantage, the polling firm/political newsletter run by former GOP legislator Matt Towery, says both the presidential race and the U.S. Senate race have narrowed to become virtual toss-ups in Georgia. Here’s the results of a poll his firm took Thursday of 615 likely voters:

Presidential
Obama, 48 percent
McCain, 47 percent
Other, 2 percent
Undecided, 3 percent

U.S. Senate
Chambliss, 44 percent
Martin, 42 percent
Buckley, 2 percent
Undecided, 12 percent

The margin of error is 3.8 percent, meaning both races are coin flips. Towery, however, seems to give both Obama and Martin the edge:

The senate race appears in my judgment either headed for a runoff or a Martin win, and here’s why I say that: over 15 percent of blacks say they still are undecided.

Saxby needs to find a Bubba the Plumber real quick!

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The telephone poll of 531 likely voters shows the U.S. Senate race as dead even. Results are here. (Warning: Word document)

Chambliss 45%
Martin        45%
Other          2%
Undecided  8%

This makes three polls in the last two weeks that call it extremely close. A recent Rasmussen poll shows Democrat nominee Martin trailing incumbent Republican Chambliss by six points.

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Barack Obama’s chances in Georgia aren’t as strong as once thought, according to a new survey from InsiderAdvantage.

When asked who they would vote for if the election were held today, more than 56 percent of 506 registered likely voters said John McCain. Obama trailed with 38 percent. (Bob Barr, the Libertarian Party candidate who’s been considered a possible vote-stealer from McCain, was not included as a choice in the survey.)

Says InsiderAdvantage’s Matt Towery:

“This is a huge slide from what had been, in our prior surveys, a relatively close race. The reason is simple—Obama lost serious ground in virtually every demographic.

“At first glance it would seem that Obama is headed for no better than the low 40 percentile level achieved by John Kerry in 2004. But let me warn observers that in both our national tracking and surveys in other states, the biggest change has been a near parity between the two candidates among the youngest of voters.

“Should that group return to Obama and the African-American vote end up where we expect it to be, the race could be closer in November. But as of now Georgia is no longer a “leans McCain” state. As of this survey, Georgia is in the McCain column.”

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Some early-morning speculation on my part, fueled by caffeine and a post from InsiderAdvantage’s Dick Pettys. The George Harrison doppelganger tapped his sources who attended a business community fundraiser yesterday for House Speaker Glenn Richardson:

Richardson told the group he intends to focus on transportation, water and the state’s budget problems if re-elected as presiding officer.

Maybe the state’s current economic woes convinced Richardson he shouldn’t tackle his greatest nemesis, property taxes, as he promised he would during an April press conference he held with Gov. Sonny Perdue and Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle?

Speculate! It’s just like daydreamin’, only it leeches off reality and you’re doing it out loud!

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Matt Towery of InsiderAdvantage is convinced that operatives with the Obama presidential campaign helped scuttle Vernon Jones’ Senate bid by sending out mailers that focused on Jones’ boasts that he voted twice for George W. Bush. The rumor has been picked up by Political Insider, Peach Pundit and other local blogs.

A certain Kenneth Walker, a Jones strategist, claims that he knows “for a fact…that there was a meeting in Sen. Harry Reid’s office with David Axelrod from Obama’s campaign, and there was an agreement Obama’s campaign would help Jim Martin with the direct mail linking Vernon and George Bush.”

That’s strange. We thought Vernon and Barrack were supposed to be tight.

(more…)

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Georgia had Obamamania so bad before Super Tuesday that the O-man put the Peach State in his “win” column weeks ahead of the primary and sent his campaign ops to work in other places.

There’s a big difference in this GOP-friendly state, however, between winning among Democrats and beating a Republican in the November election. But lately folks have been questioning much more seriously whether Georgia could swing for Barack Obama.

Earlier this week, Time magazine ran a story headlined “Can Georgia Be Obama’s Ohio?” which reveals that the Obama camp has selected Georgia and Virgina as potential battleground states and is dedicating workers and resources in an effort to gain ground here:

Obama has 15 full-time paid staffers who have been in Georgia for over a month. They also have had staff in North Carolina and Virginia and have been “literally moving in dozens of people every week to all three states,” said Jon Carson, Obama’s national field director. They also expect to have staff in Mississippi, Arkansas and Louisiana before the end of the month. “It’s very hard to sit here right now to say what’s going to happen in November… Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia, Montana, North Dakota, Missouri — which of those is going to be most winnable? So our campaign is taking the approach of casting a wide net.”

It may be working. Yesterday, InsiderAdvantage released a new poll that shows Obama trailing John McCain by a single point – 43 percent to the Republican’s 44 percent – helped mightily by the Libertarian candidacy of hometown boy Bob Barr, with 6 percent.

As InsiderAdvantage CEO Matt Towery explains it:

Georgia is competitive for Obama for several reasons. First, it has a high African-American voting age population (VAP). Second, it has an unusually high percentage of younger voters (18-29). Both of these groups are more in the Obama camp, with black voters already at the 83 percent level and likely to climb.
Equally important, like its neighbor Florida, Georgia has a high percentage of voters who consider themselves independent. Obama is carrying that critical swing vote by about 10 percent in the poll.

If this trend continues it could make things very interesting come fall.

(Photo by Joeff Davis)

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A poll released yesterday adds to the evidence that Bob Barr’s presidential run may indeed have turned Georgia from a Republican stronghold into a swing state.

Insider Advantage/Poll Position shows McCain leading Obama 44-43. The poll has a +/-5 percent margin of error, which means the two candidates are essentially tied.

Libertarian candidate Bob Barr, formerly a Republican Congressman from Georgia, nabs 6 percent in the poll. The previous Insider Advantage/Poll Position survey had McCain leading Obama by 10.

Does this mean Obama is going to snatch Georgia’s 15 electoral college votes out of the Republican column come November? Not necessarily.

However, if Bob Barr continues to poll well in Georgia, McCain is going to have to spend time and money campaigning here — time and money he would prefer to spend in states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, Virginia, Nevada and New Mexico. If he can’t put Georgia in his column, McCain’s electoral college map looks grim.

For voters, Georgia’s swing state status means we can expect more public campaign appearances from the candidates than we got in 2004.

It will also mean television commercials — lots of them — touting change we can believe in, leadership we can believe in, hope we can hope for, change we can leadership in, hope we change in, etc.

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If you follow state politics in Georgia, you know InsiderAdvantage. The subscription-based news agency powered by Dick Pettys, the state’s leading Kremlinologist, sometimes gives away its stories for free. Other times, you’re confronted with a login screen.

On Sunday, they let slip one of the biggest untold stories of our time and posted a photo of Pettys from his days covering the Gold Dome in the 1970s. (Pettys is on the right.)

I’m just saying.

UPDATE: A closer look at “Pettys’” name tag raises more questions than it answers!

(Photo courtesy of InsiderAdvantage, Blatant photo illustration by Thomas Wheatley)

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Via Dick Pettys at InsiderAdvantage:

We’re hearing there was a pre-caucus meeting Thursday of House members from the 9th District in which the vote, after assuming all senators would vote for Mike Evans, was 12-11 for Evans. But that falls one vote short of the “magic number” of 13 needed to elect. As usual, these DOT rumors are difficult to confirm but this one comes from a pair of usually reliable sources.

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