Fresh Loaf

We continue with Fresh Loaf’s preview of Thursday’s NBA draft, with the Atlanta Hawks holding two of the first 11 selections. If the Hawks take Al Horford of Florida with the third pick, then they’ll likely take point guard Acie Law with the 11th overall pick. Scouts say Law has a tremendous upside. Here’s a report:

By the way, Bill Simmons of ESPN.com has his own take on Thursday’s NBA draft and what the Hawks should do, with a not-so-subtle dig at Hawks GM Billy Knight’s draft acumen:

Al Horford is the third-best prospect, the most NBA-ready rookie outside of Oden and Durant, a potential All-Star and someone who will demand double-teams by the All-Star break of his second season. Since the Hawks don’t have a similar player on their roster, you’d think they would make room for him. You would think. Of course, from a comedy standpoint, nothing would be funnier than the Hawks finally picking a point guard (in this case, Mike Conley) during the one draft when they clearly should have taken the best player on the board (Horford). If this happens, we need to schedule a three-on-three game every All-Star Weekend — Conley, Marvin Williams and Shelden Williams against Chris Paul, Brandon Roy and Horford — with drunken, bitter Hawks fans announcing the contest with Billy Knight. That could even surpass the Bavetta-Barkley footrace.

The VP’s verdict: Take Horford. Please. Just do it.

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The NBA Draft is June 28, and today we begin a series of previews of the players who are on the radar of the Atlanta Hawks, who have picks No. 3 and No. 11.

First up, Mike Conley Jr. The Hawks’ point guard of the future?

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More than a week later and we’re still scratching our heads over AJC Hawks beat writer Sekou K. Smith’s loving, warm-fuzzy profile of Hawks GM Billy Knight, who, with the luck of the bounce, went from the doghouse to the penthouse in the June 28 NBA Draft by getting the third pick. It was the best-case scenario, as Knight is now able to keep both first-rounders (from Phoenix and Indiana) and will draft third and 11th.

Maybe Smith was just trying to put out some positive mojo for Knight, who, by most objective observers, is one of the league’s worst GMs. Here’s but another observation from the blog site Can Danny, which placed Knight in the “Bottom of the Barrell [sic]” category with the following observation:

That Marvin Williams pick is looking worse and worse. And while Knight lucked out in getting a #3 pick, that could turn out to be a one year reprieve as the Suns get the Hawks pick next year regardless of where it is and right now, it’s looking like it’ll be in the lottery. Billy’s got the pieces to make some moves this offseason but what he doesn’t have are the pieces to make a playoff team. If Knight doesn’t clean up the mess of a roster he’d made, the Suns will be sitting pretty in ’08.

Amen, blogger!

While I would like to be included in that cynical group that believes this year’s draft crop is vastly overrated, with Brandan Wright, Al Horford and Yi Jianlian, it’s got just the type of “project” and “glass ceiling”-type big men Knight seems to lust over. (See Williamses Marvin and Shelden.)

Billy, we may not love ya, but we still have hope you’ll do the right thing, suck it up and draft Ohio State point guard Mike Conley Jr. at No. 3 (or trade to move down a few slots and get him later). While Boston GM Danny Ainge is creating a South Georgia-sized smoke screen by putting it out there that he covets Jianlian, he’d be a fool not to take Conley, who may only need one year of NBA seasoning before he breaks out.

Currently, NBADraft.net and Draft Express have Atlanta taking Brandan Wright at No. 3 (ugh!).

But if Knight grabs another mediocre big man or small forward (though Corey Brewer, Jeff Green and Julian Wright are intriguing) to add to his not-so-bumper crop, it’ll be a wasted draft.

At least Smith, blogging from Orlando’s draft camp, says the prevailing winds suggest Conley’s the best choice.

Pull the trigger, Billy. Get straight to the point, and out of the barrel.

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Even though I missed with my prediction that Ohio State’s Greg Oden would stay in school another year, the news that he and teammate Mike Conley will both enter the NBA draft brings interesting possibilities for the Atlanta Hawks.

With his incredible performance in the NCAA tournament, Conley has turned himself into the top point guard in this year’s draft. No NBA team needs a point guard more than the Hawks, someone who can lead a team on the court and distribute the ball and take over a game when he has to.

Mike Conley, meet the Atlanta Hawks.

The Hawks have the 12th pick of the draft and ESPN’s Chad Ford is already projecting that Atlanta will select Conley.

I watched Conley play high school ball with Oden at Lawrence North in Indiana, and the NCAAs were no illusion. He was the same player in high school. He’s the real deal. And if the Hawks draft him, the city should jump for joy because Conley will become the team’s missing link.

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Obviously, some understanding was reached that Ohio State’s Greg Oden would fall under the “Jordan Rules” when it came to fouls in last night’s championship game. Which, realistically, makes sense. If you’re the NCAA, do you really want your star player sitting on the bench for pretty much the entire first half?

No, you want him on television being the star that he is. Which Oden did last night. His numbers were monster: 25 points, 12 rebounds, four blocked shots. It’s just that his teammates didn’t show up. Ohio State was only 4-of-23 on 3-point shots, and that made the difference.

Ohio State SHOULD have won this game. It choked. It had the open shots and missed. Then again, it was a team of largely freshman who had never been on a stage like this before.

In the end, I never expected Ohio State to take this one. Experience counts. Florida went through all the hoopla last year. It knew what this is all about, and how to deal with it. Ohio State didn’t have that. Thad Matta had never been to an NCAA championship game. Neither had Greg Oden or Mike Conley. Or anyone else from Ohio State. The nerves got them. They missed easy buckets. They screwed up dribbles. Conley got taken out of the game psychologically in the first half after he picked up his second foul and went to the bench. Up until that point, he’d dominated the game; afterward, he was never again a force.

I predict Greg Oden and Mike Conley will be back next year. I think they hunger for the national championship. Then, that challenge met, they’ll both turn pro.

These are two kids who met in the sixth grade and have played basketball together ever since. They are remarkably in sync. The sad thing is they won’t be together in the pros — Conley just revealed himself as a lottery pick when he decides to turn pro.

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That’s the question on ESPN.com’s Gene Wojciechowski’s mind today with the Final Four teams in Atlanta to play for the NCAA championship. Yesterday, I passed the UCLA team bus (with police escort) rolling down Northside Drive to the Georgia Dome.

Wojciechowski talks about how Tim Duncan changed his mind at the last minute, decided to return to Wake Forest for his senior year and feels richer for the experience. He also notes that Greg Oden himself says he’s not ready for the NBA. Of course, that’s a lot of money to turn down. And what if he injures a knee or tears an Achilles?

I worked with one of Oden’s high school coaches on a book that chronicled his career with the Wildcats of Lawrence North, Ind. And coach J.R. Shelt told me that no one was more relieved than Oden when the NBA instituted its rule that players had to have at least one year of college before they could be drafted.

He says Oden, who maintained a high-B GPA in high school, genuinely wants the college experience. He also says Oden doesn’t want to go to the NBA until he’s ready; he wants to be able to earn his keep. And he can learn more playing on the court in college than he can warming the bench in the NBA.

My gut feeling is that Oden is going to stick around at Ohio State for another year, maybe even two. I think he’s mature enough to be able to take the long view. I think that’s especially true if Ohio State falls short of winning the Final Four; he’ll want to come back and get that championship.

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As the traveling circus that is the NCAA Final Four comes to town this weekend, I will be watching the games with particular interest – last year, I co-wrote a book on the high school careers of Greg Oden and Michael Conley, who have led Ohio State to the Final Four as freshmen.

Uncaged: The Rise Greg Oden, Mike Conley and the National Champion Lawrence North Wildcats follows the Lawrence North, Indiana, high school basketball team, which Oden and Conley led to three consecutive state championships.

I spent last winter in Indiana following Oden, Conley and the Lawrence North Wildcats, getting the inside story of the season from assistant coach J.R. Shelt.

The first thing I observed is that they do indeed take basketball very seriously in Indiana. The state tournament was very much like stepping onto the set of Hoosiers. The regional finals were even held in the massive Butler Fieldhouse, where Gene Hackman famously had his team measure the height of the goal and the foul lines and declared, “I think you’ll find the dimensions are the same as our gym back in Hickory.”

Lawrence North was seldom challenged in its quest for the championship last year – Oden was usually double-teamed by players who didn�t come up to his chin.

Is he as good as advertised? Yes. He’s athletic, he’s smart and he has a hunger to be the best player he possibly can.

The sleeper is point guard Mike Conley.

He’s played in the shadow of Oden his entire career. But the kid has serious game. When Ohio State went into overtime against Xavier 10 days ago, Oden fouled out at the end of regulation. Ohio State was down by three with less than 20 seconds left. But no worries. Conley made the assist and then set the pick that allowed Ohio State to hit a three-point shot at the buzzer to tie the game. He then took over the game. He not only scored the first seven points of the overtime, he also made two critical defensive plays that forced turnovers.

The thing is, I knew it was coming because I’d seen him do it in high school — take over a game and carry a team on his shoulders. He walks in the shadow of Oden, but the kid is a winner and tough as nails.

Against Memphis in the Sweet 16 last weekend, Oden spent much of the game on the bench in foul trouble. Once again, Conley took over. He played every second of the game, and finished with 19 points – most of them coming when Oden was on the bench and Ohio State needed offensive punch. No surprise that Conley was named the Most Valuable Player for the regions.

My favorite Conley story from the book comes from a three-on-three after practice one day. They were playing to 21 and Conley’s team was up 20-19. Tyler Morris, Conley’s backup at Lawrence North (and now playing Division 1 ball at Boston University) dribbled down and nailed a jump shot over Conley. Conley brought the ball down and suddenly stopped at the three-point line at the top of the key. He lofted a high, arching shot over Morris, then turned and sprinted off the court. Conley stopped when he hit the sideline and yelled back at Morris, “Game over!” And right about then, you heard a SWOOSH!

The national media are swooning over Oden and Conley. The book was even recently featured in USA Today.

I never imagined myself pulling for Ohio State, under any circumstance. But Oden and Conley are class acts. And I’ll be cheering loudly for them to win their fourth consecutive championship.

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