Fresh Loaf

Rasmussen reports that John Oxendine still leads candidates battling to become the GOP’s gubernatorial nominee. According a telephone survey conducted by the pollster, 27 percent of likely Republican primary voters favor the state insurance commissioner.

The Ox’s© lead, however, has shrunk by four points — and the number of undecided voters has grown. Rasmussen says many likely voters still haven’t formed an opinion about the candidates — which isn’t surprising for a contest that’s still 10 months away.

Here’s how the other pachyderms stack up:

Twelve percent (12%) prefer Georgia Secretary of State Karen Handel, while nine percent (9%) like Congressman Nathan Deal. Handel and Deal were tied at 13% each in the previous survey.

Rounding out the list is State Senator Eric Johnson, State Representative Austin Scott and conservative businessman Ray McBerry, each with three percent (3%) support among primary voters.

Seven percent (7%) favor some other candidate, and 35% are not sure. The number of undecided voters climbed four points from two months ago, suggesting that the race is far from decided.

That “other candidate” favored by seven percent of poll respondents could easily be a Libertarian. Pray to God it’s not this guy. Rasmussen will release details on the Democratic gubernatorial candidates tomorrow.

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We’ve got crime! We’ve got infrastructure! We’re not loved!

From the Atlanta Business Chronicle:

TripAdvisor conducted an American city survey of more than 3,400 U.S. travelers to get opinions on the best and worst of major U.S. cities.

Atlanta was the least-favorite city, behind only Detroit and Los Angeles. The most favorite cities were New York, San Francisco, Chicago and Boston.

But according to the highly unscientific poll, they like our accents. Yippee. Accents alone won’t bring the tourists’ $$$, folks. Get cracking!

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Second for crime, first for infrastructure! Go, Atlanta, go!

From the Atlanta Business Chronicle:

According to the fourth annual “In the Driver’s Seat Road Rage Survey,” commissioned by AutoVantage, Atlanta is the fourth-worst American city for road rage. New York unseated Miami as the least courteous city. In second is Dallas/Fort Worth and third is Detroit. Fifth is Minneapolis/St. Paul.

The main culprits cited by those surveyed included bad/careless driving, such as cutting others off, speeding, tailgating, talking on cell phones, making obscene gestures and not using proper signals.

(Photo by Joeff Davis)

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Polling organization Rasmussen Reports says:

The majority of voters in Georgia (53%) say Republican Governor Sonny Perdue is not doing enough to help them through the economic recession, though he still earns fairly positive reviews.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state found that one in four voters (25%) say the governor is doing enough for Georgians, while another 22% remain undecided.

…

Still, more than half of voters (57%) approve of the way Perdue is handling his job as governor, while 39% disapprove.

The menz like duh govnuh. The ladies say “meh.” Also:

The early frontrunners among Republicans for the 2010 governor race in Georgia are Casey Cagle and John Oxendine. Cagle is currently serving as lieutenant governor, and Oxendine is the state insurance commissioner. Both men are favored by 14% of Republicans.

Among Democrats, former Governor Roy Barnes leads the pack of 2010 contenders with 28% support. Twenty-two percent (22%) of Democrats would consider voting for Atlanta Mayor Shirley Franklin for governor.

Check out the full rundown of responses. Among them: Barack Obama will do a better job as president than George W. Bush and native son Jimmy Carter.

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Did I mention that already? In Decatur, where I voted an hour ago, there were no lines; poll workers said people had been filing in all morning long.

The obvious big contests are Georgia’s U.S. Senate seat, Georgia Public Service Commission District 4 and the state Court of Appeals. There are several county elections still undecided, as well.

To find out where you need to go to vote, visit Georgia Secretary of State Karen Handel’s poll locator. Don’t forget to bring photo ID. If you have any questions, contact your county’s election office. Polls close at 7 p.m.

After today — unless we have a recount — all this will be over. We’ll come out holding hands and happy.

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This has been a grueling election cycle. Not only have we been burdened with the impossible task of writing about abstract things like “hope,” “change” and “drilling for oil,” we’ve had to slog through an extra four weeks of attack ads and endorsements long after the rest of the country (except for Minnesota!) had declared their winners.

But the candidates ask you to please — please — return to the polls tomorrow, Dec. 2.

If you didn’t vote on Nov. 4 — or during early voting — you can still vote in the runoff. To find out where to cast your ballot, visit the Georgia Secretary of State Karen Handel’s poll locator. Polls open at 7 a.m. and close to 7 p.m. And be sure to bring one of the six following forms of identification:

• Any valid state or federal government issued photo ID, including a FREE Voter ID Card issued by your county registrar’s office or the Georgia Department of Driver Services (DDS)

• A Georgia Driver’s License, even if expired

• Valid employee photo ID from any branch, department, agency, or entity of the U.S. Government, Georgia, or any county, municipality, board, authority or other entity of this state

• Valid U.S. passport ID

• Valid U.S. military photo ID

• Valid tribal photo ID

Enjoy! Let us know if there are any shenanigans.

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A new InsiderAdvantage/Politico poll shows U.S. Sen. Saxby Chambliss with a three-point lead over Democratic candidate Jim Martin.

From Politico:

The poll shows Chambliss leading Martin by 3 percentage points, 50 percent to 47 percent, with 3 percent of respondents undecided. The first-term GOP senator’s lead is within the poll’s four-point margin of error. The Politico/InsiderAdvantage poll surveyed 523 likely voters on Nov. 23.

The poll numbers are almost identical to the general election results, when Chambliss fell just short of the 50 percent necessary to win the seat outright on Election Night. He led Martin 49.8 to 46.8 percent, with a Libertarian candidate taking three percent of the vote.

“This thing’s going to be a nail-biter. We don’t know who’s going to turn out and we don’t know how it’s going to turn out, but it’s going to be a close race,” said InsiderAdvantage CEO Matt Towery.

Towery says a visit from Barack Obama could change the race. Chances of such an event happening before the Dec. 2 runoff, however, seem increasingly unlikely.

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Now that Ted Stevens has been sent packing back to Alaska, the two most closely watched U.S. Senate races in the country are Minnesota and Georgia. The race in the North Star State won’t be decided for a while thanks to a recount.

Down here, Rasmussen Reports’ latest polling shows that incumbent Republican Saxby Chambliss holds a four-point lead over Democratic nominee Jim Martin.

Chambliss leads 50% to 46%, with the vote scheduled for December 2. Four percent (4%) are undecided. However, runoff elections typically have lower voter turnout than general elections and can be impacted in either direction by organized get-out-the-vote efforts.

…

Eighty-eight percent (88%) of Georgia voters say they are certain to cast their ballots in the runoff. Of this group, 51% favor Chambliss, 46% are for Martin, and three percent (3%) remain undecided.

…

In Georgia, 52% of voters say they are less likely to vote for Martin if it means the Democrats will gain a 60-seat majority in the Senate. Thirty-eight percent (38%) say they are more likely to vote for Martin if that’s the outcome.

Interestingly, nine percent (9%) of those who plan to vote for Martin say the prospect of a 60-Democrat Senate makes them less likely to vote for him. Only 2% of Chambliss voters who say it makes them more likely to vote for Martin.

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Josh Putnam at Frontloading HQ crunches Monday’s early voting results. After he listed the raw numbers, here’s what he found:

* Turnout is down, but that’s not a surprise. Barely 13,000 votes cast is a fraction of what we were seeing early on in the general election early voting. [I'm still trying to get a hold of the day-by-day data on this in order to draw a proper comparison.]
* The percentage of African American participation is down. This isn’t a fair comparison, but over the entire early voting period for the general election, blacks made up nearly 35% of early voters (via Michael McDonald). For that proportion to sink to 22% is not good news for Jim Martin.
* The female percentage of the early vote is also down; another possible omen for Martin. Again, according to McDonald, women made up over 56% of early voters prior to the November 4 election. That proportion is now down to just under 48%.

Granted, Putnam says, some counties with large African-American populations — like Fulton County — don’t start early voting until today. Top five counties in terms of turnout were DeKalb, Gwinnett, Cobb, Hall and Forsyth.

He also says that the length of early voting periods could play into Chambliss’ favor. Look again at the counties where you saw the greatest turnout — three of those are pretty scarlet.

And some more tidbits:

The complicating factor is that a county like Fulton will only have the final three business days of this week and the first three business days of next week — truncated due to the Thanksgiving holiday — for early voting. And those advance voting-only counties will only have the three days next week. Again, if those are predominantly Martin counties, then the challenger may be getting the short end of the stick. And to think, there was all this fuss over the Republicans having lengthened the time between the general election and the runoff when they reinstituted the 50% rule for the runoff. The talk over the last week or so here in Georgia was that the extra week would give enthusiastic Democrats even more time to vote. Well, not if they can’t. So, the 50% rule hurt Chambliss, but the time between the general and the runoff may not.

Great work by Putnam. Give his site a visit — he’s got more info there for you about the results.

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During my late-night search through FiveThirtyEight’s comments, I came across a link to Frontloading HQ, a blog edited by a doctoral candidate in political science at the University of Georgia named Josh Putnam.

If you’re looking for a Georgia blog that likes to crunch the numbers and data, it’s the place.

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Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight pulls some factoids from Mark Blumenthal’s Exit Poll FAQ and tells you why exit polls — the go-to resource for pundits and journalists in post-election maelstroms where viewers and readers want a lot of information and fast — should not be trusted. Each reason is worth a read; you can do so here.

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In the last of its Jawja polls of the day, Rasmussen says John McCain still leads Barack Obama by five points in Georgia.

Interesting tidbit:

In the latest poll, Obama now leads 53% to 44% among unaffiliated voters in the state. Last week, McCain led those voters by an identical margin. McCain leads 73% to 26% among white voters in Georgia while Obama earns overwhelming support from black voters. While men favor McCain 55% to 45%, women are split between the candidates at 49% each.

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The latest poll from Rasmussen is the fourth straight snapshot that shows John McCain with more than 50 percent of the vote.

From the polling organization:

The race for Georgia’s Electoral College votes is getting closer.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state shows that John McCain’s lead over Barack Obama is down to five percentage points, 51% to 46%. In September, McCain led by 11. Earlier in October, that lead had slipped to nine points.

However, while Obama continues to gain ground, this is the fourth straight poll of Georgia voters to find McCain at the 50% level of support or above. In August, McCain led Obama 50% to 43%.

Sixty-eight percent (68%) of voters in the state expect McCain to win Georgia on Election Day.

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Rasmussen reports U.S. Sen. Saxby Chambliss’ leads Democratic nominee Jim Martin by just two points.

From the polling organization:

The U.S. Senate race in Georgia has grown a whole lot closer over the past two weeks. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state finds GOP incumbent Saxby Chambliss leading Democratic challenger Jim Martin by just 47% to 45%.

This is the closest the race has been all year and the highest level of support for Martin, whose campaign has spent roughly half-a-million dollars on attack ads against Chambliss over the past month. Just two weeks ago, Chambliss held a six-point lead.

Libertarian Party candidate Allen Buckley earns one percent (1%) of the vote in the latest poll.

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A recent Democracy Corps poll focused on Georgia shows a slight 46-44 margin for John McCain over Barack Obama and a 48-44 margin for U.S. Sen. Saxby Chambliss over Democratic challenger Jim Martin.

But it was a question about the 2010 Governor’s race that caught my eye:

(more…)

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Polls continue to show U.S. Sen. Saxby Chambliss with a tight race against Democratic nominee Jim Martin:

From SurveyUSA:

Four weeks ago, when SurveyUSA began tracking the Senate race in Georgia, Chambliss, who is running for his second term, led Martin by 17 points. Two weeks ago, before the candidates debated, Chambliss led by 2. Today, in polling conducted entirely after the 10/09/08 debate which included all three candidates, little has changed.

18% of Georgia voters say they have already voted; among them, Martin leads by 4 points; among those likely voters who have not yet voted, Chambliss leads by 4. Votes are counted in 22 days; any outcome is possible.

(Hat tip to Andre Walker at Georgia Politics Unfiltered)

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The telephone poll of 531 likely voters shows the U.S. Senate race as dead even. Results are here. (Warning: Word document)

Chambliss 45%
Martin        45%
Other          2%
Undecided  8%

This makes three polls in the last two weeks that call it extremely close. A recent Rasmussen poll shows Democrat nominee Martin trailing incumbent Republican Chambliss by six points.

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Andre Walker at Georgia Politics Unfiltered points us to the latest Rasmussen poll that shows the race for Georgia’s U.S. Senate seat remains in incumbent Saxby Chambliss’ favor. The polling organization shows the senator with a six-point lead over Democratic nominee Jim Martin.

The race among unaffiliated voters remains close, with Chambliss ahead 48% to 44%. While Chambliss has a 57% to 42% advantage among men, Martin leads 46% to 44% among women (Premium Members can view full demographic crosstabs.)

Chambliss is viewed favorably by 57% of Georgia voters and unfavorably by 37%. Martin’s ratings are 45% favorable, 38% unfavorable.

The past few weeks have seen several polls that showed Martin quickly gaining on Chambliss — one commissioned by Daily Kos showed the former state lawmaker as little as one point behind. For Martin, a soft-spoken nominee that’s raised pennies compared to Chambliss’ giant bag of loot, that’s commendable.

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Since the U.S. Senate Democratic nominee Jim Martin bested his fellow donkeys in the primaries and runoff, he’s shown increasing gains in polls that pit him against his opponent, incumbent Republican Saxby Chambliss. Just last week, polls showed Martin trailing 2-3 points behind in what undoubtedly has become a tight race.

Today, a new poll conducted by Research2000 — and paid for by left-wing site Daily Kos — shows the soft-spoken lawmaker trailing Chambliss by just one itty bitty point and within its margin of error. The poll was conducted Sept. 29-Oct. 1 before the Wall Street bailout package plan passed the Senate. (Chambliss voted for the $850-zillion package, to the ire of pretty much everyone in the world. The incumbent Republican doesn’t want to talk about the economy anymore and would prefer we focus on the gas shortage issue. Old news, senator!)

You can deride the source of the poll if you want. But the larger issue remains: Georgia is showing telltale signs of a large Democratic electorate this year. And what’s even a little good for Barack may be GREAT for Martin.

(Photo from some site found after Googling “democrats kick ass”)

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Andre Walker at Georgia Politics Unfiltered points us to a WMAZ (Macon) poll conducted by SurveyUSA that says U.S. Sen. Saxby Chambliss now leads Democratic nominee Jim Martin by just two points.

This latest poll seems to confirm the numbers released by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) yesterday that showed Chambliss leading Martin by just three points [Source: Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, "New Georgia Poll Shows Martin Within Three Points Of Chambliss", September 29, 2008].

U.S. Senate – Georgia

Saxby Chambliss (R) – 46%
Jim Martin (D) – 44%
Allen Buckley (L) – 5%
Undecided – 5%

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U.S. Sen. Saxby Chambliss now holds only a three point lead over Democratic nominee Jim Martin, a new poll commissioned by the Mellman Group finds. The poll of 600 likely voters conducted Sept. 24-28 shows Chambliss with a 37-34 lead over the former state lawmaker. Libertarian nominee Allen Buckley received three percent.

From the Martin campaign:

The new numbers show that Chambliss is more vulnerable than ever, despite a month’s worth of television ads from his campaign. Only 27% of Georgia voters now think that Chambliss is doing a “good” or “excellent” job in the Senate, down from 37% in a previous Mellman Group poll in August.

“Saxby Chambliss has been on TV since late August, but it’s clear now that the voters aren’t buying what he’s selling,” Martin campaign manager Ellery Gould said. “Maybe that’s because he’s been telling Georgians that ‘the American Dream is more possible today than ever before.’ Meanwhile, the middle class is struggling and we’re getting stuck with one last bill for the failures of Bush/Saxby Economics: a $700 billion bailout because of the deregulation of Wall Street that Chambliss supported in Washington.”

It should be noted that this poll was commissioned by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. But anytime an incumbent is under 40 percent in the polls, that’s cause for concern. A mid-September Rasmussen poll found Chambliss maintained a seven-point lead over Martin for two consecutive months.

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There’s an interesting conversation taking place on Peach Pundit about what exactly the Democrats want in an energy plan now that 70 percent of Americans are in favor of drilling off the coast and in protected lands in Alaska.

Wait, wha?!? Seven out of 10 voters want increased drilling? Even if it won’t lower gas prices in the short-term? Even if those people take into account that oil is a global commodity and whatever is found isn’t necessarily ours to keep? Even with all the risks associated with these projects at a time when hurricanes are predicted to become more frequent and powerful?

(more…)

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The ballots are in, but the polls haven’t closed! We know you are anxiously anticipating the results to drop on Sept. 24, so until then, take our Best of Atlanta poll to tide you over. Keep checking back to CLFreshLoaf.com, where you can take a new poll every few days. After picking your fave, leave a comment with your e-mail address to win a free CL Best of Atlanta T-shirt — while supplies last!

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