Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight pulls some factoids from Mark Blumenthal’s Exit Poll FAQ and tells you why exit polls — the go-to resource for pundits and journalists in post-election maelstroms where viewers and readers want a lot of information and fast — should not be trusted. Each reason is worth a read; you can do so here.
When it comes to characterizing the way Georgia might swing in tomorrow’s presidential election, the state alternately has been depicted as sure-fire red, demure pink, ever-ambiguous gray, wishy-washy yellow and half-assed red-striped.
How close do you think it’s gonna be?
a) Toss Up
b) Leaning McCain
c) Strong McCain
d) Leaning Obama*
*Not pictured, ’cause I couldn’t find a map with Georgia painted baby blue
As of this morning, more than a million Georgians — a stunning 18 percent of the state’s nearly 5.6 million registered voters — had already cast ballots. Pundits figure that most of the state’s early votes in the presidential race went to Obama. Here’s why:
First off, African Americans have turned out in far greater numbers that most experts expected, casting nearly 35 percent of the ballots since early voting began Sept. 22, despite representing only 29 percent of the state’s registered voters. In the 2004 election, blacks accounted for only 25 percent of the ballots cast in Georgia.
Perhaps even more telling is a comparison of early voters to their participation in Super Tuesday. Here’s a breakdown of the million voters who’ve already gone to the polls:
Voted in 2008 Democratic Presidential Primary 33.85 %
Voted in 2008 Republican Presidential Primary 26.2 %
Did Not Vote in 2008 Presidential Primary 39.95 %
Can we agree that most of the nearly 40 percent of early voters who didn’t vote on Feb. 5 are likely newly registered voters? And can we further agree that most of the 400,000 people who’ve registered to vote in Georgia in 2008 will be casting ballots for Obama rather than McCain?
If so, then it’s easy to understand why recent polls are calling the presidential race in Georgia a toss-up.
(For a more complete examination of early voting stats, check out this post.)
This is going to be an interesting week. And a busy one.
Pollster, a website that somehow eats every single political poll IN THE WORLD and then burps them out in color-coded maps, says Georgia is now a “toss up” between John McCain and Barack Obama. Yep, Georgia.
Wonkette says no way, but we’ll see.
Pollster’s also calling “toss up” about Georgia’s U.S. Senate seat. Nearly everyone thought incumbent Republican Saxby Chambliss would easily win a second term in his race against Democratic nominee Jim Martin and Libertarian challenger Allen Buckley. Turns out all of ‘em — me included — were wrong. Signs point to a run off in that race.
Pollster.com today switched Georgia’s U.S. Senate contest to yellow, signifying that it could go either way in the Nov. 4 election. Looks like Saxby Chambliss vote for the Wall Street bailout isn’t doing him much good.
Just last night, I reported that pollster.com — which derives its rankings from a running average of surveys from legitimate polling companies — had switched the seat now held by Republican Chambliss from red to pink, meaning it still leaned Republican.
But today the average is 46.3 for Chambliss versus 42.5 for Martin, which pollster.com considers a tossup. Four of the last five polls placed Martin within 3 percent of Chambliss.
Although the incumbent Republican still has to be considered the favorite — particularly with all the money he can use to inundate the airwaves with late negative ads — but 46.3 percent
is a very dangerous number for Chambliss. Any time the incumbent falls that far below 50 percent he’s in the danger zone.
