Fresh Loaf

Rasmussen reports that John Oxendine still leads candidates battling to become the GOP’s gubernatorial nominee. According a telephone survey conducted by the pollster, 27 percent of likely Republican primary voters favor the state insurance commissioner.

The Ox’s© lead, however, has shrunk by four points — and the number of undecided voters has grown. Rasmussen says many likely voters still haven’t formed an opinion about the candidates — which isn’t surprising for a contest that’s still 10 months away.

Here’s how the other pachyderms stack up:

Twelve percent (12%) prefer Georgia Secretary of State Karen Handel, while nine percent (9%) like Congressman Nathan Deal. Handel and Deal were tied at 13% each in the previous survey.

Rounding out the list is State Senator Eric Johnson, State Representative Austin Scott and conservative businessman Ray McBerry, each with three percent (3%) support among primary voters.

Seven percent (7%) favor some other candidate, and 35% are not sure. The number of undecided voters climbed four points from two months ago, suggesting that the race is far from decided.

That “other candidate” favored by seven percent of poll respondents could easily be a Libertarian. Pray to God it’s not this guy. Rasmussen will release details on the Democratic gubernatorial candidates tomorrow.

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A scant 10 months out from next year’s GOP primary, state Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine is touting a new Rasmussen poll that shows him with a “commanding lead over all other Republican gubernatorial hopefuls.”

Here’s what Rasmussen says:

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Georgia shows Oxendine with 31% support among those likely to vote in the state’s open Republican Primary. That gives him a (sic) 18-point advantage over his closest competitors. Georgia Secretary of State Karen Handel and Congressman Nathan Deal each attract 13% of the vote.

And here’s what the Ox’s team makes of it:

“John is humbled by these results and he will continue to work very hard to earn the trust and support of Georgia,” said (campaign manager Tim) Echols.

Hmm, perhaps they didn’t read the next paragraph, in which Rasmussen concludes:

However, it’s clearly a very open field. Thirty-one percent (31%) of potential voters are not sure which candidate they prefer.

Well, so much for the Ox’s “commanding lead.”

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Democratic gubernatorial candidate David Poythress says a recent Rasmussen poll that both former Governor Roy Barnes and state Insurance Commissioner John “PAC Man” Oxendine enjoy strong leads in the 2010 governor’s race was kind of quirky.

In an email blast to supporters today, Poythress basically says the poll’s sample size wasn’t large enough and that chicks dig him. Oh, and that Georgia Attorney General Thurbert Baker, one of Poythress’ Democratic opponents, either lost a lot of support since the last poll was conducted or never had any to begin with.

1. The sample was only 247 respondents. Most legitimate statewide polls require no less than 400-600 respondents to get an accurate gauge on public opinion;

2. The crosstabs show that all of the respondents supporting me were all female. While I believe I have strong support across the state among women, the fact that not a single male supported me suggests a badly skewed sampling process;

3. Another poll released last week showed Thurbert Baker at 30%, in this poll he was at 8%. I seriously doubt that the Attorney General has dropped 22% in the span of a week. Clearly one of these polls is way off base!

We’re not pollsters, but maybe Poythress is right about the first gripe. And women do like a man in uniform. On the last point…well, maybe it’s only THE OX that’s immune to front-page stories about campaign contributions. (UPDATE: Yes, yes, we know the Rasmussen poll was conducted on June 17, prior to the AJC’s story about Baker’s allegedly questionable campaign contributions. Just some snark and a poke at the AJC-hates-Oxendine contingent, folks.)

(Photo by Joeff Davis)

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Polling organization Rasmussen Reports says:

The majority of voters in Georgia (53%) say Republican Governor Sonny Perdue is not doing enough to help them through the economic recession, though he still earns fairly positive reviews.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state found that one in four voters (25%) say the governor is doing enough for Georgians, while another 22% remain undecided.

…

Still, more than half of voters (57%) approve of the way Perdue is handling his job as governor, while 39% disapprove.

The menz like duh govnuh. The ladies say “meh.” Also:

The early frontrunners among Republicans for the 2010 governor race in Georgia are Casey Cagle and John Oxendine. Cagle is currently serving as lieutenant governor, and Oxendine is the state insurance commissioner. Both men are favored by 14% of Republicans.

Among Democrats, former Governor Roy Barnes leads the pack of 2010 contenders with 28% support. Twenty-two percent (22%) of Democrats would consider voting for Atlanta Mayor Shirley Franklin for governor.

Check out the full rundown of responses. Among them: Barack Obama will do a better job as president than George W. Bush and native son Jimmy Carter.

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Now that Ted Stevens has been sent packing back to Alaska, the two most closely watched U.S. Senate races in the country are Minnesota and Georgia. The race in the North Star State won’t be decided for a while thanks to a recount.

Down here, Rasmussen Reports’ latest polling shows that incumbent Republican Saxby Chambliss holds a four-point lead over Democratic nominee Jim Martin.

Chambliss leads 50% to 46%, with the vote scheduled for December 2. Four percent (4%) are undecided. However, runoff elections typically have lower voter turnout than general elections and can be impacted in either direction by organized get-out-the-vote efforts.

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Eighty-eight percent (88%) of Georgia voters say they are certain to cast their ballots in the runoff. Of this group, 51% favor Chambliss, 46% are for Martin, and three percent (3%) remain undecided.

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In Georgia, 52% of voters say they are less likely to vote for Martin if it means the Democrats will gain a 60-seat majority in the Senate. Thirty-eight percent (38%) say they are more likely to vote for Martin if that’s the outcome.

Interestingly, nine percent (9%) of those who plan to vote for Martin say the prospect of a 60-Democrat Senate makes them less likely to vote for him. Only 2% of Chambliss voters who say it makes them more likely to vote for Martin.

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In the last of its Jawja polls of the day, Rasmussen says John McCain still leads Barack Obama by five points in Georgia.

Interesting tidbit:

In the latest poll, Obama now leads 53% to 44% among unaffiliated voters in the state. Last week, McCain led those voters by an identical margin. McCain leads 73% to 26% among white voters in Georgia while Obama earns overwhelming support from black voters. While men favor McCain 55% to 45%, women are split between the candidates at 49% each.

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The polling organization says incumbent Republican Saxby Chambliss leads Democratic nominee Jim Martin 48-43. It also says if Libertarian nominee Allen Buckley’s support remains consistent, a runoff is likely.

Says Rasmussen:

Senator Saxby Chambliss leads Democratic challenger Jim Martin by five percentage points in his bid for re-election in Georgia. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of the race finds the Republican incumbent with 48% of the vote and Martin with 43%. Libertarian Party candidate Allen Buckley picks ups seven percent (7%) of the vote while two percent (2%) remain undecided.

But, under Georgia law, a candidate must win at least 50% of the vote or face a run-off election in December.

If Buckley’s support stays at current levels, it would be difficult for either Chambliss or Martin to win the majority needed to avoid a run-off. It is also possible, however, that some Buckley supporters may choose instead to vote for one of the major party candidates.

A week ago Chambliss was ahead by just two points, the closest the race has been all year and the highest level of support for Martin, whose campaign has spent roughly half-a-million dollars on attack ads against Chambliss over the past month. Just three weeks ago, Chambliss held a six-point lead.

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One of CL’s veteran ad reps, Andrew Cylar, got a call at home from a pollster at Rasmussen, a Republican-leaning polling firm, who asked what could be construed as a rather leading question. Several questions in, Andrew was asked how he felt about “spreading the wealth around.” As with the other questions, he was asked to assign a numerical value indicating his level of support for the subject.

The McCain campaign, of course, is making a last-ditch effort to turn voters against Obama by repeating the Democratic nominee’s poorly worded remark to Joe the Plumber: “When you spread the wealth around, it’s good for everybody.”

It just seems odd that a respected polling firm would ask voters what they thought of “spreading the wealth around,” without at least providing additional context. Pollsters, for instance, could have asked, “At a recent Ohio campaign stop, Sen. Obama said his tax plan was designed to spread the wealth around. Do you support that goal?”

Instead, the pollster simply repeated the phrase, much as the McCain camp is doing. Is it wacky for us to wonder in the back of our minds if Rasmussen didn’t ask this question partly out of a desire to help the GOP nominee?

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The latest poll from Rasmussen is the fourth straight snapshot that shows John McCain with more than 50 percent of the vote.

From the polling organization:

The race for Georgia’s Electoral College votes is getting closer.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state shows that John McCain’s lead over Barack Obama is down to five percentage points, 51% to 46%. In September, McCain led by 11. Earlier in October, that lead had slipped to nine points.

However, while Obama continues to gain ground, this is the fourth straight poll of Georgia voters to find McCain at the 50% level of support or above. In August, McCain led Obama 50% to 43%.

Sixty-eight percent (68%) of voters in the state expect McCain to win Georgia on Election Day.

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Rasmussen reports U.S. Sen. Saxby Chambliss’ leads Democratic nominee Jim Martin by just two points.

From the polling organization:

The U.S. Senate race in Georgia has grown a whole lot closer over the past two weeks. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state finds GOP incumbent Saxby Chambliss leading Democratic challenger Jim Martin by just 47% to 45%.

This is the closest the race has been all year and the highest level of support for Martin, whose campaign has spent roughly half-a-million dollars on attack ads against Chambliss over the past month. Just two weeks ago, Chambliss held a six-point lead.

Libertarian Party candidate Allen Buckley earns one percent (1%) of the vote in the latest poll.

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Andre Walker at Georgia Politics Unfiltered points us to the latest Rasmussen poll that shows the race for Georgia’s U.S. Senate seat remains in incumbent Saxby Chambliss’ favor. The polling organization shows the senator with a six-point lead over Democratic nominee Jim Martin.

The race among unaffiliated voters remains close, with Chambliss ahead 48% to 44%. While Chambliss has a 57% to 42% advantage among men, Martin leads 46% to 44% among women (Premium Members can view full demographic crosstabs.)

Chambliss is viewed favorably by 57% of Georgia voters and unfavorably by 37%. Martin’s ratings are 45% favorable, 38% unfavorable.

The past few weeks have seen several polls that showed Martin quickly gaining on Chambliss — one commissioned by Daily Kos showed the former state lawmaker as little as one point behind. For Martin, a soft-spoken nominee that’s raised pennies compared to Chambliss’ giant bag of loot, that’s commendable.

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U.S. Sen. Saxby Chambliss now holds only a three point lead over Democratic nominee Jim Martin, a new poll commissioned by the Mellman Group finds. The poll of 600 likely voters conducted Sept. 24-28 shows Chambliss with a 37-34 lead over the former state lawmaker. Libertarian nominee Allen Buckley received three percent.

From the Martin campaign:

The new numbers show that Chambliss is more vulnerable than ever, despite a month’s worth of television ads from his campaign. Only 27% of Georgia voters now think that Chambliss is doing a “good” or “excellent” job in the Senate, down from 37% in a previous Mellman Group poll in August.

“Saxby Chambliss has been on TV since late August, but it’s clear now that the voters aren’t buying what he’s selling,” Martin campaign manager Ellery Gould said. “Maybe that’s because he’s been telling Georgians that ‘the American Dream is more possible today than ever before.’ Meanwhile, the middle class is struggling and we’re getting stuck with one last bill for the failures of Bush/Saxby Economics: a $700 billion bailout because of the deregulation of Wall Street that Chambliss supported in Washington.”

It should be noted that this poll was commissioned by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. But anytime an incumbent is under 40 percent in the polls, that’s cause for concern. A mid-September Rasmussen poll found Chambliss maintained a seven-point lead over Martin for two consecutive months.

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The polling agency says its findings echo those of last month’s poll.

From Rasmussen:

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the Peach State finds the incumbent ahead of his challenger 50% to 43% (see crosstabs). That’s similar to results from a month ago.

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Typically, incumbents who poll below the 50% level of support are considered potentially vulnerable and support for Chambliss is not as solid as he might like. However, he is far from being the most vulnerable GOP senator in this year’s round of elections. Many Republican Senate seats are potentially in play for Democrats including seats in Alaska, New Hampshire, Oregon, New Mexico, Colorado, Mississippi, Minnesota, and Virginia.

Chambliss picks up votes from 91% of Republicans and Martin is backed by 91% of Democrats. Among unaffiliated voters, Chambliss has a modest advantage once again this month.

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Rasmussen Markets data suggests that Chambliss has a 90.3 % chance of winning re-election in November.

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Polling giant Rasmussen notes in its latest poll the Georgia U.S. Senate race between incumbent Saxby Chambliss and his opponent Jim Martin is starting to look a bit more competitive.

The former state lawmaker is now trailing Chambliss by just six percentage points — that’s a much closer margin than the 11 percentage point lead the incumbent boasted in last month’s poll.

From the polling group:

Though the latest numbers could represent a temporary primary “glow” for Martin, the poll marks the lowest level of support for the incumbent since tracking of this year’s election began. Last month, Chambliss had a 51% to 40% lead over the Democrat.

Chambliss has come under fire from his fellow Republicans in recent days for pushing compromise energy legislation as a member of the so-called “Gang of 10.” His critics insist he is weakening the GOP push for offshore oil drilling even as it continues to resonate with voters nationwide.

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