Fresh Loaf

Due to technical difficulties, I wasn’t able to take part in last night’s live blog, so I’ll recap some of observations from the Democratic bacchanal at the downtown Hyatt. As I arrived, the Rev. Joe Lowery was onstage offering encouragement to an excited crowd in a downstairs ballroom. I was told Senate candidate Jim Martin had stopped by a little earlier and that I’d just missed Mayor Shirley Franklin. I was surprised Shirley had left before the election was called, but her son, Cabral, told me she was helping babysit his kids. I guess after a hard day as mayor, it’s nice to go home and just be grandma.

However, I did see state Attorney General Thurbert Baker; DeKalb CEO-elect Burrell Ellis; Atlanta Councilman Kwanza Hall; Fulton County Commission Chairman John Eaves; and state Senate Minority Leader Robert Brown, D-Macon. In an unexpected sighting, former Fulton Commissioner Michael Hightower — who spent some time behind bars a few years back for taking bribes from a developer — was making the rounds and shaking hands. A relieved-looking U.S. Rep David Scott, fresh from re-election, came in just after the presidential race had been called for Obama, as the DJ played “Ain’t No Stoppin’ Us Now.”

A little later, I found myself sipping scotch in the Obama suite while watching McCain’s concession speech next to former Congressman Buddy Darden. Also there were state Sen. David Adelman, D-Atlanta, who chaired Obama’s Georgia campaign, and fellow Sen. Doug Stoner, D-Smyrna. Both had cruised to election earlier in the day.

Back downstairs, a giant conga line had formed as ecstatic Democrats celebrated the historic victory. Hanging at the back of the ballroom, just watching the revelry, was Clayton County Commission Chairman Eldrin Bell, looking dapper as always. Leave it to Eldrin to find the happenin’ party.

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Could the actual votes cast in Georgia really be as close as AJC readers perceive? Could Obama and McCain be neck-and-neck? Or are all those big-city liberals skewing the numbers to make the state appear more blue?

Hmmm …

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When it comes to characterizing the way Georgia might swing in tomorrow’s presidential election, the state alternately has been depicted as sure-fire red, demure pink, ever-ambiguous gray, wishy-washy yellow and half-assed red-striped.

How close do you think it’s gonna be?

a) Toss Up

b) Leaning McCain

c) Strong McCain

d) Leaning Obama*

*Not pictured, ’cause I couldn’t find a map with Georgia painted baby blue

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WTF, AJC?

I’m not usually the one driving the anti-AJC bandwagon (that’s Sugg’s job), but over the weekend, the apparent cowardice of some unnamed editors over there had me steamed.

An AP story appearing in Saturday’s AJC describes how “Doonesbury” cartoonist Garry Trudeau – who must submit a week’s worth of comic strip at a time – is going out on a limb with cartoons “showing his characters reacting to an Obama victory.” If John McCain somehow ends up winning Tuesday’s election, Trudeau says, “I’ll be the one with the egg on my face.”

Still, the article says some newspaper editors are expressing discomfort with running the strip this week, quoting one who will wait until checking Election Day returns before deciding whether to run the Obama-related cartoons. But the article didn’t name any papers that had already pulled the plug on “Doonesbury.”

Well, we found one. Tacked on to the very end of the print version of the AP article is this sentence:

As for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, it is giving “Doonesbury” a sabbatical next Monday through Saturday and will resume carrying the strip the following week.

No explanation; no rationale. Just a statement that the strip won’t be running in the AJC, cravenly couched behind the euphemism “sabbatical.” The paper is so gutless that, rather than make an effort to defend its decision, it seems to be hoping no one will notice.

(more…)

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FiveThirtyEight, one of the most entertaining and informative online resources for this Presidential election, posts an excellent Georgia-centric rundown on the state’s demographics and political dynamics — and how the combination of the two may determine who runs the country come Jan. 20.

From the site:

Since native son Jimmy Carter was on the ballot, Democrats have found Georgia tough sledding. But with African-American turnout soaring to unprecedented levels, Georgia may be a state where the public polling models are off, and indeed Barack Obama has put last minute advertising resources into the state in an effort to both go over 400 electoral votes as well as help a rising tide lift Jim Martin’s boat against Max Cleland-smearing incumbent Saxby Chambliss.

It’s a long read, but it says Georgia’s may be one of the closest races we’ll see on Nov. 4. Definitely worth checking out.

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In the last of its Jawja polls of the day, Rasmussen says John McCain still leads Barack Obama by five points in Georgia.

Interesting tidbit:

In the latest poll, Obama now leads 53% to 44% among unaffiliated voters in the state. Last week, McCain led those voters by an identical margin. McCain leads 73% to 26% among white voters in Georgia while Obama earns overwhelming support from black voters. While men favor McCain 55% to 45%, women are split between the candidates at 49% each.

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— Want to check out one of the best polling analysis on the Net? That would be Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight.com, and he has Georgia on his mind. He explains why, if “that one” landslides Johnny Mac in the presidential election, the Georgia Senate race becomes the most interesting election left on the board.

— It’s also getting down to trench fighting. Amy at Georgia Women Vote reports that one of her readers has received robo calls from the Big SaxMachine campaign, and another from the Georgia Chamber of Commerce on behalf of the SaxMan. And the topic of all those robo calls? Here’s a multiple choice:

a) How do we get out of Iraq?

b) How do we fix the economy?

c) How will the big guy make our lives better if we re-elect him?

d) Abortion.

Sigh.

— It’s endorsement time for DriftGrift, and he captures the sense of history that’s blowin’ in the wind. He also makes a couple of decidedly non-mainstream choices. Of course. It’s the blogosphere, not a robo-call, so that’s allowed.

— How tight is the presidential race in Georgia? At one point, “that one” had all but conceded the state. Now, Andre at Georgia Politics Unfiltered reports, the campaign is buying commercial time on local television stations.

— DCup is so into blogging that she’s created a second blog, Unglued, that focuses on the personal rather than the political. In the latest edition, the soccer mom overhears her daughter give a rather succinct, and potentially painful, anatomy lesson to her son.

— And, finally, it’s Halloween, the second best day of the year to be a kid. In the spirit of All Hallow’s Eve, which harkens back to a celebration of the riches of the fall harvest, the fine ladies at Pecanne Log take a look at Atlanta’s pagan roots. Druid Hills, don’t you get it?

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The headline’s a bit misleading, sure, but this sounds like it’ll be just as interesting.

Grady High School’s award-winning Speech and Debate Team is hosting “The Final Showdown,” a U.S. presidential debate tonight at 7:30 p.m. in the school’s Main Theater. Seniors Mike Robinson and Demarius Wilson will portray John McCain and Barack Obama and debate healthcare, the economy, foreign policy and other issues. The fundraising event will be moderated by members of the press and Emory University’s Barkley Forum. Students and audience members will be able to pose questions to the “candidates.”

Can’t make it out to the event? No worries, you can watch the debate from home — the team will streamcast it live on its website here.

A chili dinner will be offered at 6 p.m. in the high school cafeteria. Tickets cost $12 and can be purchased at the door or online here.

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As of this morning, more than a million Georgians — a stunning 18 percent of the state’s nearly 5.6 million registered voters — had already cast ballots. Pundits figure that most of the state’s early votes in the presidential race went to Obama. Here’s why:

First off, African Americans have turned out in far greater numbers that most experts expected, casting nearly 35 percent of the ballots since early voting began Sept. 22, despite representing only 29 percent of the state’s registered voters. In the 2004 election, blacks accounted for only 25 percent of the ballots cast in Georgia.

Perhaps even more telling is a comparison of early voters to their participation in Super Tuesday. Here’s a breakdown of the million voters who’ve already gone to the polls:

Voted in 2008 Democratic Presidential Primary        33.85 %

Voted in 2008 Republican Presidential Primary         26.2   %

Did Not Vote in 2008 Presidential Primary                39.95 %

Can we agree that most of the nearly 40 percent of early voters who didn’t vote on Feb. 5 are likely newly registered voters? And can we further agree that most of the 400,000 people who’ve registered to vote in Georgia in 2008 will be casting ballots for Obama rather than McCain?

If so, then it’s easy to understand why recent polls are calling the presidential race in Georgia a toss-up.

(For a more complete examination of early voting stats, check out this post.)

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Almost everyone is surprised at how well Democrats Barack Obama and Jim Martin are faring in Georgia against their Republican counterparts John McCain and Saxby Chambliss.

One political commentator who isn’t: Matt Towery.

On June 19, the former state rep. and principal of Southern Political Report wrote the following about the 2008 election in Georgia:

“My view is that Georgia, the 9^th largest state in the nation with 15 electoral votes, will remain a major new battleground state through November. This changes the landscape of electoral politics as Georgia, North Carolina, Virginia, and perhaps another surprise southern state, join Florida as potential “swing states,” that cannot be presumed to vote Republican in 2008.”

Towery’s comments accompanied a June Insider Advantage poll showing McCain and Obama almost tied in Georgia.

(Hat-tip to Fresh Loaf commenter Poverty Wench, whose recent comment prompted me to dig through Towery’s archives.)

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This is going to be an interesting week. And a busy one.

Pollster, a website that somehow eats every single political poll IN THE WORLD and then burps them out in color-coded maps, says Georgia is now a “toss up” between John McCain and Barack Obama. Yep, Georgia.

Wonkette says no way, but we’ll see.

Pollster’s also calling “toss up” about Georgia’s U.S. Senate seat. Nearly everyone thought incumbent Republican Saxby Chambliss would easily win a second term in his race against Democratic nominee Jim Martin and Libertarian challenger Allen Buckley. Turns out all of ‘em — me included — were wrong. Signs point to a run off in that race.

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One of CL’s veteran ad reps, Andrew Cylar, got a call at home from a pollster at Rasmussen, a Republican-leaning polling firm, who asked what could be construed as a rather leading question. Several questions in, Andrew was asked how he felt about “spreading the wealth around.” As with the other questions, he was asked to assign a numerical value indicating his level of support for the subject.

The McCain campaign, of course, is making a last-ditch effort to turn voters against Obama by repeating the Democratic nominee’s poorly worded remark to Joe the Plumber: “When you spread the wealth around, it’s good for everybody.”

It just seems odd that a respected polling firm would ask voters what they thought of “spreading the wealth around,” without at least providing additional context. Pollsters, for instance, could have asked, “At a recent Ohio campaign stop, Sen. Obama said his tax plan was designed to spread the wealth around. Do you support that goal?”

Instead, the pollster simply repeated the phrase, much as the McCain camp is doing. Is it wacky for us to wonder in the back of our minds if Rasmussen didn’t ask this question partly out of a desire to help the GOP nominee?

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The latest poll from Rasmussen is the fourth straight snapshot that shows John McCain with more than 50 percent of the vote.

From the polling organization:

The race for Georgia’s Electoral College votes is getting closer.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state shows that John McCain’s lead over Barack Obama is down to five percentage points, 51% to 46%. In September, McCain led by 11. Earlier in October, that lead had slipped to nine points.

However, while Obama continues to gain ground, this is the fourth straight poll of Georgia voters to find McCain at the 50% level of support or above. In August, McCain led Obama 50% to 43%.

Sixty-eight percent (68%) of voters in the state expect McCain to win Georgia on Election Day.

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