Fresh Loaf

Due to technical difficulties, I wasn’t able to take part in last night’s live blog, so I’ll recap some of observations from the Democratic bacchanal at the downtown Hyatt. As I arrived, the Rev. Joe Lowery was onstage offering encouragement to an excited crowd in a downstairs ballroom. I was told Senate candidate Jim Martin had stopped by a little earlier and that I’d just missed Mayor Shirley Franklin. I was surprised Shirley had left before the election was called, but her son, Cabral, told me she was helping babysit his kids. I guess after a hard day as mayor, it’s nice to go home and just be grandma.

However, I did see state Attorney General Thurbert Baker; DeKalb CEO-elect Burrell Ellis; Atlanta Councilman Kwanza Hall; Fulton County Commission Chairman John Eaves; and state Senate Minority Leader Robert Brown, D-Macon. In an unexpected sighting, former Fulton Commissioner Michael Hightower — who spent some time behind bars a few years back for taking bribes from a developer — was making the rounds and shaking hands. A relieved-looking U.S. Rep David Scott, fresh from re-election, came in just after the presidential race had been called for Obama, as the DJ played “Ain’t No Stoppin’ Us Now.”

A little later, I found myself sipping scotch in the Obama suite while watching McCain’s concession speech next to former Congressman Buddy Darden. Also there were state Sen. David Adelman, D-Atlanta, who chaired Obama’s Georgia campaign, and fellow Sen. Doug Stoner, D-Smyrna. Both had cruised to election earlier in the day.

Back downstairs, a giant conga line had formed as ecstatic Democrats celebrated the historic victory. Hanging at the back of the ballroom, just watching the revelry, was Clayton County Commission Chairman Eldrin Bell, looking dapper as always. Leave it to Eldrin to find the happenin’ party.

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Could the actual votes cast in Georgia really be as close as AJC readers perceive? Could Obama and McCain be neck-and-neck? Or are all those big-city liberals skewing the numbers to make the state appear more blue?

Hmmm …

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When it comes to characterizing the way Georgia might swing in tomorrow’s presidential election, the state alternately has been depicted as sure-fire red, demure pink, ever-ambiguous gray, wishy-washy yellow and half-assed red-striped.

How close do you think it’s gonna be?

a) Toss Up

b) Leaning McCain

c) Strong McCain

d) Leaning Obama*

*Not pictured, ’cause I couldn’t find a map with Georgia painted baby blue

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WTF, AJC?

I’m not usually the one driving the anti-AJC bandwagon (that’s Sugg’s job), but over the weekend, the apparent cowardice of some unnamed editors over there had me steamed.

An AP story appearing in Saturday’s AJC describes how “Doonesbury” cartoonist Garry Trudeau – who must submit a week’s worth of comic strip at a time – is going out on a limb with cartoons “showing his characters reacting to an Obama victory.” If John McCain somehow ends up winning Tuesday’s election, Trudeau says, “I’ll be the one with the egg on my face.”

Still, the article says some newspaper editors are expressing discomfort with running the strip this week, quoting one who will wait until checking Election Day returns before deciding whether to run the Obama-related cartoons. But the article didn’t name any papers that had already pulled the plug on “Doonesbury.”

Well, we found one. Tacked on to the very end of the print version of the AP article is this sentence:

As for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, it is giving “Doonesbury” a sabbatical next Monday through Saturday and will resume carrying the strip the following week.

No explanation; no rationale. Just a statement that the strip won’t be running in the AJC, cravenly couched behind the euphemism “sabbatical.” The paper is so gutless that, rather than make an effort to defend its decision, it seems to be hoping no one will notice.

(more…)

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FiveThirtyEight, one of the most entertaining and informative online resources for this Presidential election, posts an excellent Georgia-centric rundown on the state’s demographics and political dynamics — and how the combination of the two may determine who runs the country come Jan. 20.

From the site:

Since native son Jimmy Carter was on the ballot, Democrats have found Georgia tough sledding. But with African-American turnout soaring to unprecedented levels, Georgia may be a state where the public polling models are off, and indeed Barack Obama has put last minute advertising resources into the state in an effort to both go over 400 electoral votes as well as help a rising tide lift Jim Martin’s boat against Max Cleland-smearing incumbent Saxby Chambliss.

It’s a long read, but it says Georgia’s may be one of the closest races we’ll see on Nov. 4. Definitely worth checking out.

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In the last of its Jawja polls of the day, Rasmussen says John McCain still leads Barack Obama by five points in Georgia.

Interesting tidbit:

In the latest poll, Obama now leads 53% to 44% among unaffiliated voters in the state. Last week, McCain led those voters by an identical margin. McCain leads 73% to 26% among white voters in Georgia while Obama earns overwhelming support from black voters. While men favor McCain 55% to 45%, women are split between the candidates at 49% each.

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— Want to check out one of the best polling analysis on the Net? That would be Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight.com, and he has Georgia on his mind. He explains why, if “that one” landslides Johnny Mac in the presidential election, the Georgia Senate race becomes the most interesting election left on the board.

— It’s also getting down to trench fighting. Amy at Georgia Women Vote reports that one of her readers has received robo calls from the Big SaxMachine campaign, and another from the Georgia Chamber of Commerce on behalf of the SaxMan. And the topic of all those robo calls? Here’s a multiple choice:

a) How do we get out of Iraq?

b) How do we fix the economy?

c) How will the big guy make our lives better if we re-elect him?

d) Abortion.

Sigh.

— It’s endorsement time for DriftGrift, and he captures the sense of history that’s blowin’ in the wind. He also makes a couple of decidedly non-mainstream choices. Of course. It’s the blogosphere, not a robo-call, so that’s allowed.

— How tight is the presidential race in Georgia? At one point, “that one” had all but conceded the state. Now, Andre at Georgia Politics Unfiltered reports, the campaign is buying commercial time on local television stations.

— DCup is so into blogging that she’s created a second blog, Unglued, that focuses on the personal rather than the political. In the latest edition, the soccer mom overhears her daughter give a rather succinct, and potentially painful, anatomy lesson to her son.

— And, finally, it’s Halloween, the second best day of the year to be a kid. In the spirit of All Hallow’s Eve, which harkens back to a celebration of the riches of the fall harvest, the fine ladies at Pecanne Log take a look at Atlanta’s pagan roots. Druid Hills, don’t you get it?

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The headline’s a bit misleading, sure, but this sounds like it’ll be just as interesting.

Grady High School’s award-winning Speech and Debate Team is hosting “The Final Showdown,” a U.S. presidential debate tonight at 7:30 p.m. in the school’s Main Theater. Seniors Mike Robinson and Demarius Wilson will portray John McCain and Barack Obama and debate healthcare, the economy, foreign policy and other issues. The fundraising event will be moderated by members of the press and Emory University’s Barkley Forum. Students and audience members will be able to pose questions to the “candidates.”

Can’t make it out to the event? No worries, you can watch the debate from home — the team will streamcast it live on its website here.

A chili dinner will be offered at 6 p.m. in the high school cafeteria. Tickets cost $12 and can be purchased at the door or online here.

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As of this morning, more than a million Georgians — a stunning 18 percent of the state’s nearly 5.6 million registered voters — had already cast ballots. Pundits figure that most of the state’s early votes in the presidential race went to Obama. Here’s why:

First off, African Americans have turned out in far greater numbers that most experts expected, casting nearly 35 percent of the ballots since early voting began Sept. 22, despite representing only 29 percent of the state’s registered voters. In the 2004 election, blacks accounted for only 25 percent of the ballots cast in Georgia.

Perhaps even more telling is a comparison of early voters to their participation in Super Tuesday. Here’s a breakdown of the million voters who’ve already gone to the polls:

Voted in 2008 Democratic Presidential Primary        33.85 %

Voted in 2008 Republican Presidential Primary         26.2   %

Did Not Vote in 2008 Presidential Primary                39.95 %

Can we agree that most of the nearly 40 percent of early voters who didn’t vote on Feb. 5 are likely newly registered voters? And can we further agree that most of the 400,000 people who’ve registered to vote in Georgia in 2008 will be casting ballots for Obama rather than McCain?

If so, then it’s easy to understand why recent polls are calling the presidential race in Georgia a toss-up.

(For a more complete examination of early voting stats, check out this post.)

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Almost everyone is surprised at how well Democrats Barack Obama and Jim Martin are faring in Georgia against their Republican counterparts John McCain and Saxby Chambliss.

One political commentator who isn’t: Matt Towery.

On June 19, the former state rep. and principal of Southern Political Report wrote the following about the 2008 election in Georgia:

“My view is that Georgia, the 9^th largest state in the nation with 15 electoral votes, will remain a major new battleground state through November. This changes the landscape of electoral politics as Georgia, North Carolina, Virginia, and perhaps another surprise southern state, join Florida as potential “swing states,” that cannot be presumed to vote Republican in 2008.”

Towery’s comments accompanied a June Insider Advantage poll showing McCain and Obama almost tied in Georgia.

(Hat-tip to Fresh Loaf commenter Poverty Wench, whose recent comment prompted me to dig through Towery’s archives.)

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This is going to be an interesting week. And a busy one.

Pollster, a website that somehow eats every single political poll IN THE WORLD and then burps them out in color-coded maps, says Georgia is now a “toss up” between John McCain and Barack Obama. Yep, Georgia.

Wonkette says no way, but we’ll see.

Pollster’s also calling “toss up” about Georgia’s U.S. Senate seat. Nearly everyone thought incumbent Republican Saxby Chambliss would easily win a second term in his race against Democratic nominee Jim Martin and Libertarian challenger Allen Buckley. Turns out all of ‘em — me included — were wrong. Signs point to a run off in that race.

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One of CL’s veteran ad reps, Andrew Cylar, got a call at home from a pollster at Rasmussen, a Republican-leaning polling firm, who asked what could be construed as a rather leading question. Several questions in, Andrew was asked how he felt about “spreading the wealth around.” As with the other questions, he was asked to assign a numerical value indicating his level of support for the subject.

The McCain campaign, of course, is making a last-ditch effort to turn voters against Obama by repeating the Democratic nominee’s poorly worded remark to Joe the Plumber: “When you spread the wealth around, it’s good for everybody.”

It just seems odd that a respected polling firm would ask voters what they thought of “spreading the wealth around,” without at least providing additional context. Pollsters, for instance, could have asked, “At a recent Ohio campaign stop, Sen. Obama said his tax plan was designed to spread the wealth around. Do you support that goal?”

Instead, the pollster simply repeated the phrase, much as the McCain camp is doing. Is it wacky for us to wonder in the back of our minds if Rasmussen didn’t ask this question partly out of a desire to help the GOP nominee?

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The latest poll from Rasmussen is the fourth straight snapshot that shows John McCain with more than 50 percent of the vote.

From the polling organization:

The race for Georgia’s Electoral College votes is getting closer.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state shows that John McCain’s lead over Barack Obama is down to five percentage points, 51% to 46%. In September, McCain led by 11. Earlier in October, that lead had slipped to nine points.

However, while Obama continues to gain ground, this is the fourth straight poll of Georgia voters to find McCain at the 50% level of support or above. In August, McCain led Obama 50% to 43%.

Sixty-eight percent (68%) of voters in the state expect McCain to win Georgia on Election Day.

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Jim Wooten: "Let the Democrat infidels bask in their illusion"

The front page of Sen. John McCain’s Georgia campaign web site features a September 14 column from AJC conservative columnist Jim Wooten predicting defeat for Sen. Barack Obama.

The column’s complete and utter wrongness is almost impossible to overstate.

Some high/lowlights:

“Barack Obama knows it. The election he had in the bag is slipping away. The selection of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as John McCain’s running mate has so thrown him off stride, as it has most other Democrats”

“For a “change” candidate, Obama appears to be a man locked in time, unable to move past criticism, unable to move from the grip of the Democratic left, unable to adapt to the changed reality that the campaign is not the referendum on the war in Iraq or on the administration of George W. Bush that he’d envisioned.”

“Obama has the habit, too, of reminding voters of their doubts about him,”

“Obama will lose because with less than two months remaining voters won’t be able to get comfortable with him. He can’t stay on message and he can’t avoid sending signals that interfere with the message when he does.”

“McCain, on the other hand, has been superb going back at least to Obama’s European tour. Mainstream America is comfortable with him and, with Palin’s selection, conservatives who had their doubts are onboard.”

“It’s not over. But it’s getting there —- and Obama knows it.”

In a state as chock-full-o-Republicans as Georgia, is Jim “Comical Ali” Wooten really the best conservative columnist the AJC can come up with?

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A couple weeks back, the AJC’s esteemed Jim Galloway ran a blog item that had Georgia politicos buzzing. In it, he quoted Senate Majority Leader Eric Johnson, R-Savannah, attacking the state’s new early voting program as a vehicle for voter fraud. Johnson called early voting “a mistake” and explained that it gave cheaters extra time “to go out there and pick up homeless people, and carry them to the polls, and register cats.”

Sen. Eric Johnson

Putting aside for a moment the fact that homeless people have as much legal right to vote as anyone else, Johnson’s statements were jaw-droppingly ironic because early voting in Georgia was a Republican initiative that party strategists believed would give the GOP an advantage at the polls. Statistics have shown that absentee voting is more popular among Republicans than Democrats. Therefore, the reasoning went, if absentee voting were extended to a month and folks no longer had to give an excuse to get an absentee ballot, then early voting could serve as an effective, state-subsidized get-out-the-vote effort for the GOP.

But it doesn’t seem to be working out that way. (more…)

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A recent Democracy Corps poll focused on Georgia shows a slight 46-44 margin for John McCain over Barack Obama and a 48-44 margin for U.S. Sen. Saxby Chambliss over Democratic challenger Jim Martin.

But it was a question about the 2010 Governor’s race that caught my eye:

(more…)

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— Caribou Barbie’s appearance on SNL proves that she would have won the talent portion of the Miss Alaska beauty pageant if only she hadn’t brought out that danged flute. She even charmed Alec Baldwin. But as I wanted to tell the woman I saw wearing the over-sized “Palin Power” button yesterday, charm does not make a President. Or a VP. And in that train of thought, ATLmalcontent receives the “line of the day” award.

— DCup has a brief moment of pity for Johnny Mac at Politits in light of Colin Powell’s endorsement of “that one.” She says Bush not only screwed him over in 2000, he’s doing it again in 2008. But the polls are tightening and it’s too early to take things for granted. And considering what happened in 2000 and 2004, it’s not wise to make a foregone conclusion out of the presidential race. J-Mac’s not the only one who’s been screwed by the Bush regime.

— With the race tightening up and the gap between Democrats and Republicans growing smaller, even in Georgia, B King at Terminal Station writes that Georgia’s Democratic Party should be kicking itself for not fielding more candidates in the General Assembly races. Only 23 Republicans in the House even face opposition this year. What the Democrats need in Georgia is a strong leader to rally around, he argues. Problem is, there’s an acute shortage in that area.

— At Inside The Sprawl, Raleigh questions the logic of building a MARTA spur to the old Ford plant in Hapeville. Or at least building it before people actually turn up at what’s supposed to be Atlantic Station-South. Shouldn’t we be trying to put rail where people actually are? No, that makes too much sense.

— Atlanta television did an admirable job covering the suicide bomber who turned up at a lawyer’s office in Dalton, says Doug at Live Apartment Fire. Well, with one exception: WXIA apparently couldn’t afford the gas it took to send a crew to Dalton. It was the only local station that didn’t provide first-hand coverage of the tragedy.

— And, finally, either DriftGrift is transforming into a neocon in front of our eyes, or else the AJC’s Jim Wooten is transforming into a reasonable human being. It’s difficult to decide but, for the second week in a row, “My Morning Wooten” has turned into a love fest. With no vinegar.

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After Thursday night’s roller-coaster ride on the YouBetchaExpress, this evening’s presidential debate was relatively staid. I thought Barack Obama clearly led the night, but McCain’s final two answers were stronger.

Your thoughts?

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MELTDOWN: Bailout talks crumbled Thursday night when House Republicans announced they won’t back the plan because it offends free-market absolutism. McCain, who made a fuss this week about injecting himself into the negotiations, was largely silent as the Republican revolt ripped apart consensus. Talks resume today, and Bush promised this morning that a bailout package will be passed.

THE REELING IS MUTUAL: Washington Mutual becomes the largest bank to fail in U.S. history as it’s seized by the federal government and sold to J.P. Morgan Chase.

DEBATE AND SWITCH: Obama’s in Oxford, Miss., the site of tonight’s first presidential debate of the general election; McCain is still sending mixed messages about whether he’ll attend, although surrogate Lindsey Graham hinted this morning that McCain may be there after all. And despite McCain’s announced suspension of his campaign, ongoing TV commercials, a speech in New York and media interviews make it seem rather unsuspended. UPDATE: McCain now says he will show up for the debate.

NO. 1 STUNNER: Top-ranked USC falls to Oregon State, making No. 3 UGA’s matchup Saturday with No. 8 Alabama that much more momentous.

OIL FOR FEUD: Tex Pitfield, an oilman whose name wouldn’t allow him any other line of work, has asked Gov. Perdue to cancel the Georgia-Alabama game because of the gas shortage. Perdue’s office calls the suggestion “ridiculous,” and urges people to take common-sense measures, presumably such as stealing gas from Alabama fans. UGA officials have asked fans who can’t make it to Athens and back on one tank, however, not to come.

LONG SHORTAGE: The Washington Post breaks down the regionwide fuel crisis that’s hamstrung the Southeast.

ATLANTA’S AIR FORCE: Delta and Northwest shareholders have endorsed the airlines’ merger, leaving the ball in the Justice Department’s court.

WILD BLUE HITHER: GeorgiaSkies, a new airline launched by Pacific Wings, will offer intrastate flights among Atlanta, Athens and Macon starting Monday.

(SUNK) LIKE A ROCK: The abrupt closure of all Bill Heard Chevrolet dealerships on Wednesday, which the company blames on the economy and gas prices, has left many customers in limbo.

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BAILOUT: President Bush, looking concerned, nervous but still slightly amused, tells the nation that the “entire economy is in danger.”

PALIN: CNN’s Campbell Brown issued a rant to the McCain campaign Tuesday, calling for it to stop sheltering its VP candidate and treating her “like she is a delicate flower that will wilt at any moment,” in response to the campaign barring reporters from asking her questions at a U.N. appearance. Palin was then turned loose to Katie Couric Wednesday, and it did not go well.

MCCAIN: Suspends his campaign to focus on the economy, and asks Obama to postpone Friday’s debate if a bailout deal isn’t reached by then. Obama declines, saying “It is going to be part of the president’s job to deal with more than one thing at once.”

GAS PANIC: Still going on, and people are still fighting at gas stations.

MERGE PROTECTOR: Northwest Airlines’ shareholders this morning approved merging with Delta, whose shareholders will also vote today. Antitrust approval still awaits.

EURO TRIP: Gov. Perdue’s upcoming trip to Spain is expected to cost taxpayers $100,000 at a time when Georgia faces a nearly $1.6 billion budget shortfall and has asked state agencies, including the governor’s office, to cut back.

SHOOTING THE BREEZE: The Gainesville Times reports that relocated city slickers often are shocked this time of year by their neighbors outside, guns a-blazin’, because much of unincorporated Georgia allows residents to shoot guns on their own property.

UGA VS. ‘BAMA: Officials warn that Athens may be flooded with counterfeit tickets Saturday, as average real-ticket prices are more than $300.

TERROR LEVEL RED HOT: The New Englandish region (touché, Jimbo) isn’t establishing a good track record with bomb recognition. First there was the 2007 Aqua Teen Hunger Force scare in Boston; now the Philadelphia Phillies blew up some hot dogs before losing to the Braves Wednesday night.

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Last week, former Georgia Congressman Bob Barr won a legal battle to get on the Nov. 4 ballot in Pennsylvania as the Libertarian presidential nominee. A local Republican Party official had filed a lawsuit last month to have Barr’s name stricken from the ballot, despite an earlier pledge by John McCain that he would not tolerate party underlings trying to restrict ballot access for third-party candidates.

Well, Barr has returned the favor by filing suit in Texas to have both McCain and Barrack Obama tossed from that state’s ballot. According to the Dallas Morning News, Barr is arguing that both major parties missed a state deadline to certify the names of their candidates.

The Libertarians are contending that the Democratic and Republican nominees are disqualified from appearing on the ballot because they missed the state’s Aug. 26 deadline to certify candidates. During the national conventions, Mr. Obama was not voted as the nominee until Aug. 27 and Mr. McCain claimed the GOP nomination on Sept. 3.

Rather than dismissing the suit, the Texas Supreme Court has asked both parties to file responses by Monday. Stay tuned.

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Neil Peirce of the Washington Post Writers Group weighs in:

My short analysis: With Obama, we’re likely to get an activist federal government in areas from transit and infrastructure to housing. But it won’t be the Democrats’ historic center-city “urban policy.” Instead, Obama’s looking for ways to shift and coordinate federal programs to help boost the fortunes of entire metro regions.

McCain? One has to be a super-detective to discern any city-metro policy at all. We know what he’s against, starting with pork-barrel spending, particularly earmarks for politicians’ pet local projects. We know he’s for less government regulation and lower taxes for individuals, small businesses, corporations.

But do we have even a hint of a federal partnership with urban/metro America under a McCain administration? So far no. The silence could be intentional. The Sarah Palin vice presidential selection, the Republican National Convention’s celebration of small towns and invective against “cosmopolitanism” and community organizing, smacks of a calculated anti-urban message.

Read the rest here.

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AIG: U.S. taxpayers save the insurance giant from its own bad investments via the Fed’s historic $85 billion bailout, which, despite its unfairness, was needed to prevent the worldwide financial bedlam that would follow an AIG collapse.

STREET CRED: Wall Street’s free fall has given Obama an opening, but while he does poll better than McCain on the economy, he doesn’t poll as well as a generic Democrat against a generic Republican.

PALIN: Not ready to be Hewlett-Packard CEO, according to former HP chief and McCain economic adviser Carly Fiorina, who then dug herself an even deeper hole by adding that McCain couldn’t lead the company either.

ALDERMAN: The convicted murderer was executed Tuesday for the 1974 killing of his wife.

ERR LIKE A SAILOR: Disgraced former Georgia lawmaker Ron Sailor Jr. is sentenced to 63 months for fraud and money laundering.

FUEL AND FAR BETWEEN: Ike has left the city of Atlanta with just 15 days worth of fuel, prompting the closure of two fueling stations and a plea to city employees to conserve.

STANDOFFISH: A fugitive wanted in a 2006 Atlanta murder is arrested in Chicago after a standoff.

THE YOST IS CLEAR: After being unexpectedly fired by the Brewers, there’s some speculation that former Braves third base coach Ned Yost could end up back in Atlanta.

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BACKS AGAINST THE WALL STREET: The Dow is suffering its worst loss since 2001 following the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers and the buyout of Merrill Lynch, with AIG possibly next, despite recently borrowing $20 billion from its subsidiaries. The Fed today infused $50 billion into financial markets to stem the freefall.

MCCAIN: Reconfigures his recent statement that “the fundamentals of our economy are strong.”

PALIN: Won’t cooperate with the ongoing ethics probe because she says Obama’s campaign has infiltrated it. Actually, she didn’t say that. Despite the probe being into her conduct as governor, the announcement that Palin won’t be cooperating was made by the McCain campagin.

JUST THE TICKET: Atlanta scofflaws will have two months, starting Oct. 1, to pay old parking tickets and have all late fees waived, a measure approved by City Council in hopes of collecting at least some money they otherwise might never have seen.

GASOLINE: Prices in Georgia are the second-highest in the country, although analysts say they should settle somewhere around $4 soon.

NATURAL GAS: Prices in Georgia may rise 25 percent this winter.

BARR VS. BLOOMBERG: The Libertarian presidential candidate will appear in federal appeals court in Atlanta today to defend his defamation suit against the New York City mayor, which alleges Bloomberg libeled Barr’s client, Adventure Outdoors Sporting Goods, by calling the Smyrna store a rogue gun dealer in his famous 2006 lawsuit.

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