Fresh Loaf

Machinists, take note.

That is, those who still believe in the existence and relevance of the “machine politics” of Atlanta’s past will find their theories bolstered by the fact that former Mayor Andy Young just cut a radio spot endorsing state Sen. Kasim Reed for his old job.

You can listen to the spot here. Here’s a transcript of the lead-in:

About 20 years ago I met a young man who impressed me a great deal. He was in the process of putting together a student run foundation that would help college students to help themselves and help those who were less fortunate stay in school.
I took the liberty then of saying I hope you finish your education and come on back to Atlanta where you grew up ’cause in about 20 years we’re going to need a mayor like you.

That young man, as you may have guessed, was Kasim Reed — who, at 39 40, is still a young man.

According to my former co-worker Kevin “Professor Griff” Griffis, the “machine” created by the late Maynard Jackson hasn’t existed for years. With Jackson’s passing, the fabled machine no longer even has its mainspring.

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In mid-July, the citizen coalition Campaign for Atlanta held a two-day series of forums with Atlanta mayoral candidates Lisa Borders, Mary Norwood, Kasim Reed and Jesse Spikes at the Carter Center.

Topics covered during the events included Department of Watershed Management issues, creating and maintaining a competent city bureaucracy, and police and fire issues. Candidates were grilled by civil engineer Bob Bunker, Georgia Tech Professor Jim Martin, former Fulton County Manager Sam Brownlee, former Atlanta Deputy Police Chief Lou Arcangeli and former Atlanta Fire Chief David Chamberlin.

All 32 videos of the event, grouped by candidate remarks and responses, were made available today on Campaign for Atlanta’s website. We’ve uploaded each candidate’s opening remarks after the jump.

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In unveiling his new “Blueprint for Restoring Public Safety in Atlanta,” state Sen. Kasim Reed brought out the big guns — in the form of Evander Holyfield’s right and left arms. While bringing a well-known heavyweight boxing champ to a campaign press conference might initially sound like a publicity stunt, there was actually a relevant connection: Holyfield was a friend and mentor to Vernon Forrest, the welterweight boxing champion who was murdered at a Castleberry Hill gas station this past Saturday night after he confronted a mugger.

Reed’s plan, which will now go toe-to-toe with the patented Mary Norwood 12-Point Public Safety Program, is titled “Securing Atlanta.” Here’s the campaign blurb:

Securing Atlanta is a comprehensive plan to tackle the growing problem of crime in the city. The plan includes increasing the existing size of our police force with 750 additional police officers, establishing a dedicated revenue stream for public safety, updating our technology such as adding more surveillance cameras, improving officer retention by restoring step increments and making salaries more competitive. Securing Atlanta also takes a holistic approach to reducing crime by addressing other contributing factors such as the importance of revitalizing our neighborhoods, giving our young people greater opportunities and addressing the escalation in gang activity.

Unlike Norwood’s plan, Reed’s proposal includes a funding method, the above-mentioned “dedicated revenue stream for public safety,” which he has said would be in the form of a special tax district whose residents (that’s us) would foot the additional cost.

Can we now expect Lisa Borders to roll out her own splashy public-safety initiative, perhaps called, “Kicking Butt and Taking Names: Fighting Crime in the ATL?” Apparently not, judging from her most recent campaign release, headlined: Borders Calls For End To Public Safety Rhetoric.

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Matt Towery — former GOP state legislator, political pollster and possessor of the most otherworldly tan this side of John Boehner — has put to work the most advanced polling tools available at his disposal and determined the Atlanta mayoral race is…a three-way tossup between Council President Lisa Borders, Councilwoman Mary Norwood and state Sen. Kasim Reed.

Oh, and furthermore, it’ll probably go to a runoff.

Well, frankly, I came to those same conclusions weeks ago and I don’t own a fancy polling firm.

But Towery goes on to share some of his insights into the dynamics of the race. Here’s Matt:

The candidate who buys substantial television post-Aug. 1 will, based on every pattern I have seen, be likely to make the runoff. There is a caveat here. That candidate must have a deep enough level of support to be able to build on the huge name identification boost he or she will receive by being daring and “going for it” early. The only way this strategy works is if the candidate is already viewed as credible and by becoming the “frontrunner,” he or she then basically scares the money on the sidelines into supplying another round of serious cash to keep the television and radio buys going until election day.

And here he offers the perspective of a jaded ex-politico:

If you think turnout will be light in November, try December. That’s where a little thing called “street money” will become critical. In the South, money paid to “consultants,” tithed to churches, donated to charities and just plain handed out has played a huge role in turnout in the black community. That tradition dried up with the 2002 race for governor between Roy Barnes and Sonny Perdue. The Barnes crowd put their money into television — in part because so many top African-American leaders had significant races of their own (or involving family members) that there seemed no need to put cash in the community.

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Mayoral front-runners: Borders (left), Norwood (middle) and Reed (right)

As reported by the AJC, Atlanta’s mayoral candidates have taken to social networking sites such as Twitter, utilizing the art of mass-updating to keep in constant touch with supporters and potential voters. And where there’s a seemingly innovative new political outreach tool, there’s almost always a predictable new catchphrase for it:

“This will be the Facebook election,” said Emory University associate professor Michael Leo Owens.

Four candidates — [Council President Lisa] Borders, Councilwoman Mary Norwood, state Sen. Kasim Reed (D-Atlanta) and [Glenn] Thomas, a former city employee — each have pages and videos on Facebook, Twitter and YouTube.

Candidate Rod Mack, who works in logistics, has a MySpace page that plays the Sam Cooke classic “A Change Is Gonna Come.”

The campaigns do concede that, most often, it’s their staffs who are updating these accounts for them. Borders, for example, has three individuals from the firm Relate Media Group on staff to manage her social networking accounts.

Like everything else in politics, this is a competition — one that Reed and Borders would seem to have a head start on. Reed boasts more than 4,000 Facebook friends, while Borders has approximately 1,700. Each have more than 1,100 official supporters listed on their Facebook pages. On Twitter, Borders has more followers than any candidate: 749 as of last Sunday.

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Erick Erickson

1. Ga. governor candidate hates abortion, loved animals – Thomas Wheatley reminds us of Neal Horsley and his, uhm, passion for all of the dear Lord’s creations.

2. Atlanta mayor race is leading up to fall runoff – Scott Henry drops science on the race for Atlanta mayor, which will presumably be decided amongst three candidates: Council President Lisa Borders, Councilwoman Mary Norwood or state Sen. Kasim Reed.

3. Standard murder: One suspect in custody, three more to go – The top brass at the APD held a news conference last week to announce an arrest in conjunction with John Henderson’s murder case. Scott Henry breaks it all down for you.

4. Erick Erickson calls Souter ‘goat f**cking child molester’ – Andisheh retracts himself from calling Erick Erickson (of Peach Pundit and RedState.com fame) a “bright light in the local blogosphere” after the blogger posted some choice words about retiring Supreme Court Justice David Souter.

5. UGA professor George Zinkhan’s body found, investigators say – Update on the UGA professor-murder case.

(Photo by Joeff Davis)

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It’s been known around City Hall for a week or so that Councilman Ceasar Mitchell would switch from the mayor’s race to that for Council president. Yesterday, he made it official by filing the necessary paperwork.

The move seemed likely as far back as the beginning of the year, if only because Mitchell hadn’t raised nearly as much money as the two mayoral front-runners, Councilwoman Mary Norwood and state Sen. Kasim Reed, or even Jesse Spikes, a well-connected attorney with little name recognition. When City Council President Lisa Borders jumped back into the race last week, Mitchell’s change-up probably became inevitable.

As of now, the president’s race is a two-way contest between Mitchell and Councilwoman Clair Muller, but it likely won’t remain that way. State Sen. Vincent Fort is an oft-rumored possibility, and there may be others as well. (more…)

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Four weeks ago, Borders told us she was “reconsidering” a run for mayor. Well, sometime between then and now, she quit reconsidering and decided to jump back in. Maria Saporta reports on Borders’ turnabout in today’s Atlanta Business Chronicle and our own sources confirm that the Council president is indeed back in. A formal announcement is expected sometime next week.

Borders’ re-entry could up-end the mayor’s race – or maybe not. Before she pulled out last August for family reasons, Borders was routinely described as a front-runner, yet she’d raised a mere $300,000 during more than a year as a declared candidate. She’s now a good six months behind the current front-runners, Councilwoman Mary Norwood and state Sen. Kasim Reed, in terms of fund-raising and campaign events. Still, I’m told that a certain former top executive (of a company whose initials are GP) canceled a Norwood fund-raiser last week when he heard Borders was getting back in.

But the news will certainly affect the down-ticket city races. I’m waiting to hear back, but I understand Councilman Ceasar Mitchell has already dropped his bid for mayor and is shooting instead for the president’s seat. (He’s taken down his campaign website for retooling.) [UPDATE – Mitchell called back to say he isn't ready to reveal his plans just yet, but will make an announcement soon.] Councilwoman Clair Muller, who was aiming to retire from her Buckhead post after 20 years, has also expressed interest in the job. And we’ve heard that state Sen. Vincent Fort, D-Atlanta, is likewise eyeing the position.

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The state Senate passed legislation today that would allow Atlanta residents to decide if they want to pay extra for more police officers and firefighters.

State Sen. Kasim Reed, a Democrat from Atlanta who’s also a front-runner in the mayor’s race, sponsored the bill.

Dave Williams of the Atlanta Business Chronicle reports:

Legislation asking Atlanta voters to tax themselves to pay for additional police and fire protection cleared an important hurdle in the General Assembly Thursday.

The Senate voted 30-23 to hold a referendum in the city in November on a plan to raise property taxes to hire more police officers and firefighters.

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Reed said the legislation is modeled after a bill the General Assembly adopted allowing a sales tax referendum in Atlanta to pay for water and sewer improvements, which won approval from 71 percent of city voters. He said the property tax increase would expire after four years unless reauthorized in a subsequent referendum.

The bill now moves to the House. If approved, Reed says the owner of a $250,000 home would pay an additional $6 a month on their property taxes. The senator received some guff from his colleagues, who said Mayor Shirley Franklin and the City Council could resolve the dispute over raising taxes vs. cutting public safety themselves. But Reed says the problem can’t wait for a new administration in City Hall.

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Late last week, the Georgia General Assembly finally caught up with CL’s informed prediction that lawmakers would announce a new schedule that sets the end of the session for April 3, rather than sometime in June.

Kasim Reed

The news that Georgia will not be forced to suffer through a prolonged sausage-making season was welcome to all sentient beings, but none more so than state Sen. Kasim Reed, D-Atlanta,

Reed, you may have heard, is running for mayor and, like all state lawmakers, he’s barred from any kind of campaign fund-raising while the General Assembly is in session. He entered the session in January with his campaign finances in good shape, with more cash on hand than his closest opponent, Councilwoman Mary Norwood. But not being able to resume fund-raising until mid-June would’ve been a campaign-killer for Reed.

If the session schedule hadn’t been changed, Reed confirms, he would’ve resigned his Senate seat. Now, folks leave office all the time to run for other posts – Reed will need to do that in August when he qualifies for the mayor’s race – but I’ve never heard of a state legislator abandoning his seat mid-General Assembly, unless it’s been for health reasons or imminent criminal charges (see Ron Sailor). Heck, even Sen. Charles Walker, D-Savannah, showed up for work while under federal indictment a few years back.

Reed has dodged a big bullet.

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The rule of thumb when looking at a political poll is to consider who paid for it. That’s because every successful pollster knows that, besides providing useful information, a poll is a campaign marketing tool – and the folks writing the check expect to get their money’s worth. In short, you never see a candidate release a poll that shows he’s getting his butt kicked.

With that in mind, we turn to a recent poll released by Atlanta Councilwoman Mary Norwood which indicates that – surprise! – Mary Norwood is leading the 2009 mayor’s race.

Last month, Norwood’s campaign disclosure showed she had raised more cash in 2008 than her opponents – just over $500,000, compared to $423,000 in contributions to state Sen. Kasim Reed (although Reed had more cash on hand as of Dec. 31).

Now, the poll by Washington, D.C.-based Lake Research Partners shows that, as of early February, Norwood has far better name recognition than Reed or the other two major candidates, Councilman Ceasar Mitchell and attorney Jesse Spikes. All three men are lawyers.

Not a surprising outcome, given that Norwood has been informally campaigning across the city for the past couple of years. More significant, perhaps, are the candidates’ favorable ratings. Among the 400 Atlantans who took part in the telephone poll – and who had opinions – Norwood’s score was 61 favorable to 9 unfavorable. Reed scored 21 to 5; Mitchell was 21 to 8; and Spikes was 8 to 4 – although many more people either had never heard of the trio or had no opinion.

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State Sen. Kasim Reed

State Sen. Kasim Reed, D-Atlanta, just announced he will introduce a bill to allow Atlanta residents to decide for themselves whether to raise property taxes to help fund police and firefighter salaries.

We’d heard that Reed, a leading candidate for Atlanta mayor, had been thinking of a way to get out front on the contentious issue of police cutbacks during an apparent upsurge in violent crime around the city. Reed is a close associate of Shirley Franklin who ran her two successful campaigns, so it’s no big surprise that Reed’s proposed solution to the city’s cop-funding problem is a tax increase; that’s what Franklin wanted to do last summer, but was shot down by the council.

I haven’t seen Reed’s bill yet, so I don’t know the details, but I’m already puzzled by a couple of figures. His press release says:

Sen. Kasim Reed will introduce legislation giving the citizens of Atlanta a choice to levy a 1 mill property tax that will generate more than $21 million dollars solely for police officer and fire fighter’s salaries

But last summer, when the city was facing a $40 million shortfall, Franklin proposed only a .43 mill increase. In other words – and keep in mind I’m no tax expert – it seems that a 1-mill tax hike would generate far more than $21 million. (That is, unless property values have fallen more dramatically than I’d thought, but that’s another story…)

But then again, Reed doesn’t say that the tax would bring in only $21 million; rather, he says that $21 million of the proceeds would be used for police and firefighter salaries. It could be that he expects additional proceeds to flow into the city’s general fund.

He’s holding a press conference at 2 p.m. I should learn the details then.

UPDATE: The Senate Press Office says Senators Nan Orrock, Vincent Fort, and Horacena Tate, all Democrats who represent Atlanta, have signed on as co-sponsors of Reed’s legislation.

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Add one Jesse Spikes to the long list of folks planning to run for Atlanta mayor next year.

No, we weren’t familiar with Mr. Spikes, either, so we gave him a call. Spikes, 57, is a former Rhodes Scholar and a senior partner with McKenna Long & Aldridge, one of the city’s largest law firms. Although he served for a time as Evander Holyfield’s business attorney, he is not a well-known figure in Atlanta – but he does have an interesting back story.

Born on a farm in Henry County, the youngest of 13 children, to parents who never went to high school, Spikes’ future seemed understandably limited. But he was sent to school in New England by A Better Chance, a private educational foundation. Spikes went on to attend Dartmouth College, Harvard Law School and, courtesy of a Rhodes Scholarship, Oxford University.

Spikes, who specializes in business law, says he’d always expected to go to work in the public sector to give back to society, but hadn’t found the right opportunity. He now believes he’s found that chance.

“I think I’m the manager the city needs,” he says. “I’m someone who intends to focus on the nuts and bolts, day-in-day-out job of running the city.”

As someone who’s never run for public office, Spikes has his work cut out for him. So far, the field of mayoral candidates looks to include a number of seasoned political veterans: Council President Lisa Borders; State Sen. Kasim Reed; Council members Caesar Mitchell and Mary Norwood; and Fulton County Commissioner Robb Pitts.

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Buckhead City Councilwoman Mary Norwood — she of the first-lady-style suits and helmet hair — today kicked off her long-expected run for Atlanta mayor with an apparent makeover. Judge for yourself:


Before and………….After

OK, so her new look isn’t the big news here, but it will certainly be noted by anyone who’s grown accustomed over the years to Norwood’s dependable Talbots-and-Aqua Net aesthetic.

Anyway, the energetic councilwoman announced the rollout of a 120-member “exploratory committee” to survey the prospects of a Norwood mayoral campaign. Since she’s spent the past year holding town-hall meetings in virtually every neighborhood in town, we assume the committee is a formality and she’s already made up her mind to run in next year’s race.

Her likely opponents include Council President Lisa Borders, Councilman Ceasar Mitchell and state Sen. Kasim Reed. Possibles include Fulton County Commissioner Robb Pitts and talk-radio host Clark Howard.

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