Photo by Brian Z. Danin
Dale Cardwell, Rand Knight and Josh Lanier showed up last night for a debate at Emory Law School among Democrats fighting for the chance to take on Republican Saxby Chambliss.
The two guys who’ve actually won elected office before and who have got to be considered the favorites for the Democratic nomination, Vernon Jones and Jim Martin, weren’t there. The primary is slated for July 15.
Like a lot of underdogs this year, Cardwell and Knight evoked the experience-ain’t-such-a-big-deal insurgency of Barack Obama, while Lanier — a former congressional aide and lobbyist — talked a lot about restoring the Senate to its traditions of civility.
Although each was pretty good at articulating a populist message, I can’t help but wonder whether shooting for the Senate the first time you run for public office is a bit delusional. It’s like thinking you ought to do brain surgery while you’re still taking your first First Aid class.
I was on the panel, and I asked essentially that question (albeit more politely): Might it be better for people who want to see Chambliss defeated if you dropped out of the race, threw your support to a more experienced candidate, and proved yourself by running for lower office?
Lanier, who now lives in Statesboro, said my question in itself was an example of “what’s wrong with American politics.” I shouldn’t assume fund raising is the be-all-end-all, he said. He got a lot of applause for that — but unfortunately fund raising, experience and connections do matter. Nobody’s going to crank up a bandwagon for the nomination or against Chambliss without a couple of million dollars.
Cardwell, who quit his job as a WSB-TV reporter to run for the Senate, said he was irked that Martin came to his office in September and told him he wasn’t going to run for the Senate. (I’ve alerted Martin’s folks that I’m posting what Dale said and inviting Martin to comment below if he remembers the meeting differently.)
The most impressive one of the three on the issues was Knight. He’s an earnest 30-something with no political experience. But he’s well-versed in environmental issues and has made the environment central to his campaign. He’s spent a lot of time networking among Democratic organizations across the state, and he’s gotten some union backing.
Cardwell’s name recognition and publicity stunts (he’s the guy who spent part of January on a 320-foot chimney tower to draw attention to his campaign) may give him an edge among the second-tier candidates. The ex-TV guy also seems to have taken a page from Lou Dobbs, mixing economic populism talk with advocating harsh treatment of illegal immigrants. That last part could hold contrarian appeal among some, but anti-immigrant platforms usually don’t produce winners in Democratic primaries.
It’s important to remember that not all these guys are necessarily running. None will officially qualify for the contest until later this month. Qualifying ends May 2.
All three had announced their intention to jump into the race when it looked as if Jones — the controversial DeKalb County CEO might be the lone Democratic bigwig. But Martin’s March 19 announcement that he’s running foils the alternative-to-Jones strategy.
The former state rep from Atlanta and one-time state Human Resources commissioner ran a strong campaign for lieutenant governor in 2006 against Republican Casey Cagle, losing by a much smaller margin than did the Democrat for governor. Though Martin’s late entry into the Senate race will force him to convince people that he’s really committed to running hard against Chambliss, he was recruited by national Democrats, which should give him a nice jump in fund raising.
Chambliss could be vulnerable. Six years after getting swept into office on the 2002 post-9/11 tide, Georgia’s senior senator is most famous for: running a campaign ad that compared war hero Max Cleland to Osama bin Laden, being the most obsequious of Bush lackeys and nakedly flip-flopping on immigration reform. Plus, huge African-American turnout in the March 5 presidential primary has many local Democrats salivating at the thought that so many blacks could turn out in the General Election (especially if Obama’s nominated). Chambliss’ favorability ratings seems to hover around 50 percent — higher than sitting-duck territory but not great for an incumbent.
Still it’s a long shot. Chambliss has at least $4 million in the bank, and a Democrat caught in a tight nomination fight before the July 15 primary and an August runoff will be forced to spend time and money defending himself instead of redefining the Republican. Just ask Barack and Hillary how much fun that is.
Thanks to the Emory Law School Democrats for sponsoring the debate and for inviting me.
UPDATE Martin confirms Cardwell’s account, raises $346,000.
