Fresh Loaf

Now that Ted Stevens has been sent packing back to Alaska, the two most closely watched U.S. Senate races in the country are Minnesota and Georgia. The race in the North Star State won’t be decided for a while thanks to a recount.

Down here, Rasmussen Reports’ latest polling shows that incumbent Republican Saxby Chambliss holds a four-point lead over Democratic nominee Jim Martin.

Chambliss leads 50% to 46%, with the vote scheduled for December 2. Four percent (4%) are undecided. However, runoff elections typically have lower voter turnout than general elections and can be impacted in either direction by organized get-out-the-vote efforts.

…

Eighty-eight percent (88%) of Georgia voters say they are certain to cast their ballots in the runoff. Of this group, 51% favor Chambliss, 46% are for Martin, and three percent (3%) remain undecided.

…

In Georgia, 52% of voters say they are less likely to vote for Martin if it means the Democrats will gain a 60-seat majority in the Senate. Thirty-eight percent (38%) say they are more likely to vote for Martin if that’s the outcome.

Interestingly, nine percent (9%) of those who plan to vote for Martin say the prospect of a 60-Democrat Senate makes them less likely to vote for him. Only 2% of Chambliss voters who say it makes them more likely to vote for Martin.

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Jim Galloway with the details:

The fourth former GOP presidential candidate will make his way to Atlanta on Monday — that’s three days before Thanksgiving — to help Republican incumbent Saxby Chambliss gather cash for the final week of his U.S. Senate runoff.

The price of the evening fund-raiser at the Linstrum + Matre Artworks is $500 per couple. They will take more if you insist.

The former mayor of New York, you’ll recall, took .7 percent of the vote in Georgia’s Republican presidential primary.

Giuliani’s last stop in Georgia — that I can remember at least — was a toe-touch in Marietta during his presidential run. That was a lot of fun.

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No worries, it’s still at Clark Atlanta University. But event organizers have moved it to:

Clark Atlanta University
The Quad
James P. Brawley Drive and Fair Street
Atlanta, GA

“The Quad” sounds like it’s outdoors to me. Be sure to wear your mittens.

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You’d think that by this point in the U.S. Senate Runoff race between incumbent Republican Saxby Chambliss and Democratic nominee Jim Martin all the issues would be hashed out. But that’s not the case.

On Sunday, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee released an ad that questions why Chambliss has refused to testify about whether executives from Imperial Sugar — they owned the Savannah refinery that exploded in February and killed 14 people — asked him to help the company avoid blame for the incident. Chambliss has received campaign contributions from Imperial Sugar and browbeat a company whistleblower during legislative testimony.

A Chambliss spokeswoman told the Associated Press that U.S. Senate legal counsel told the incumbent Republican the U.S. Constitution prevents him from testifying.

But government watchdog group Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington says the senator has it wrong. And in a post on the group’s website, executive director Melanie Sloan delivers the senator a zinger.

(more…)

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Signs! They make us think! They make us laugh! They’re great tools for pranks!

No outside signs are allowed at tomorrow’s Bill Clinton rally for U.S. Senate Democratic nominee Jim Martin. And this afternoon you’ve got a chance to make some authorized ones at one of the campaign’s satellite offices in Fulton County.

Here are the details from the Martin HQ:

ATLANTA – This afternoon Jim Martin for Senate supporters will gather at one of the Democratic Party’s Campaign For Change Offices located in Fulton County for a sign-making party in preparation for the Bill Clinton rally. Afterwards, supporters will phone bank to get out the vote for Jim Martin. Martin will work with President-elect Barack Obama to fix the economy and cut taxes for middle class families in Georgia.

WHO: Jim Martin for Senate supporters
WHAT: Host sign-making party and phone bank
WHERE: Fulton County
Morris Brown Office
643 Martin Luther King Drive Atlanta, GA 30309
WHEN: 4:30 PM, Tuesday, November 18, 2008

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Even though Wednesday’s Bill Clinton rally for U.S. Senate Democratic nominee Jim Martin at Clark Atlanta University is free, organizers urge those who are interested in attending to pick up a ticket at Metro Atlanta campaign offices. Here are details:

Tickets to Clinton rally available at Campaign for Change offices

ATLANTA – Tickets to Wednesday’s “America is Back” rally with Democratic Senate candidate Jim Martin and President Bill Clinton are now available at six Campaign for Change offices in metro Atlanta. The rally is to be held at Clark Atlanta University’s Vivian W. Henderson Gymnasium. Doors open at 4:00 pm and the program begins at 4:30 pm.

The event is free and open to the public, but obtaining tickets beforehand is strongly recommended. Tickets are available at the following locations:

DeKalb County
2752 E. Ponce De Leon
Suite G
Decatur, GA 30030

Clayton County
2745 Mount Zion Road
Jonesboro, GA 30206

Fulton County
Morris Brown Office
643 Martin Luther King Drive
Atlanta, GA 30309

Fulton County
1020 Woodstock Road
Suite 2108
Roswell, GA 30075

Cobb County
1200 Cobb Parkway N.
Suite 700
Marietta, GA 30062

Gwinnett County
3245 Lawrenceville-Suwanee Road
Suwanee, GA 30024

Those interested in attending may also RSVP here.

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From the Martin campaign:

EVENT DETAILS FOR BILL CLINTON RALLY FOR MARTIN AT CLARK ATLANTA UNIVERSITY
Former President will tout Martin’s ability to work with President-Elect Obama to Fix the Economy, Change the Direction of the Country

UPDATED EVENT DETAILS:

LOCATION:
Clark Atlanta University
Vivian W. Henderson Gymnasium
650 Fair Street SW
Atlanta, GA

DOORS OPEN TO PUBLIC:
4:00 PM

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Former President Bill Clinton will visit Atlanta on Wednesday to rally for U.S. Senate Democratic nominee Jim Martin.

From the Martin campaign:

Clinton and Martin will appear together to tout Martin’s ability to work with President-elect Barack Obama to fix the economy and change the direction of the economy for middle class Georgians. Clinton has been a strong supporter of Martin’s from the start, joining him in Georgia during the general election and now stumping for him in the runoff.

…

Additional details about the president’s visit to follow.

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Fresh off getting shellacked in last week’s presidential election, Arizona Sen. John McCain is coming to Atlanta to stump for Georgia’s embattled Sen. Saxby Chambliss.

Zell and the Colonel

Well, of course, he’s not actually coming to Atlanta itself. That’s not the real America. Instead, he’ll appear just inside Cobb County at the Cobb Energy Center at 4:30 p.m. on Thursday.

There’s talk that Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin may appear on behalf of Saxby as well, but it won’t be on this trip. Nor will McCain be accompanied by Joe the Plumber.

Oddly, the Georgia GOP’s website contains no mention of Thursday’s rally, but it does list a Saturday event you’ll no doubt want to attend. At 12:30 p.m., Saxby will appear at Poole’s BBQ in Ellijay. For many years now, the restaurant’s owner, Col. Poole — who resembles a taller, older Sonny Perdue — has appeared at Republican gatherings in his trademark canary-yellow suit and outsized red-white-and-blue top hat.

(more…)

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— It’s Veteran’s Day tomorrow, which is set aside to honor the men and women who have put their lives on the line on our country’s behalf. Call a vet  and thank them for their sacrifices. At the Daly Briefing, our intrepid correspondent is back in the U.S. from Iraq. But he’s stuck in Kansas because of military bureaucracy. And will be stuck there a day longer because … well, federal offices are closed because it’s Veteran’s Day. Patience, patience.

— Strong words from Erick at Peach Pundit, who is tired of hearing Johnny Mac’s folks whine about the shortcomings of Caribou Barbie. After all, they’re the ones who plucked her out of a moose hunt to be the next vice-president, right? Erick is so pissed off that he has a petition to make Republicans who bash Palin official political lepers.

— The Republican Party is obviously in trouble and Newt Gingrich has volunteered to be the savior. DownRight is down with that notion, but not the idea that the party has to become more moderate. They argue that Johnny Mac ran as a moderate and lost, which is evidence the party has to turn even harder right. But, listen, don’t forget Newt has this little issue with, you know, family values.

— Left On Lanier also delves into the Republican Party’s post-election tug-of-war and points out that for the far-right wing, even Fox News has become too liberal.

— Georgia’s U.S. Senate run-off will be under the national spotlight. At Georgia Women Vote, Amy takes note that unmarried women came out strong for J-Mart and Obama. Will they come back for the run-off?

— And, finally, there can’t be a worse feeling in journalism than to pursue a story, miss it, and then see a competitor nail it. Live Apartment Fire follows the tale of the two Atlanta garbage men who chill out in East Point while collecting OT, and how WSB trumped WGCL in the local television news wars. But that doesn’t erase the fact that WGCL still has its ace in the hole: Dagmar Midcap.

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— Tuesday is history and history was made. Obama wants to unite us, but can he? On the one hand, one Republican-leaning friend confided yesterday that he’s now glad Obama is the president-elect. He was won over by Obama’s speech Tuesday night. On the other hand, someone else I know was gleefully showing off an email on his cellphone that had a picture of the Obama family set to the soundtrack of The Jeffersons theme song. Tacky, tacky, tacky. At Politits, DCup notes that she feels a bit bad for Caribou Barbie, but her tongue is firmly in her cheek.

— ATLMalcontent has a few random observations of the vote Tuesday and its aftermath. He notes the right-wing attacks have already begun. Rush has already referred to the president-elect as a “Chicago thug.” And I’ll bet he has that Jeffersons theme song on his cellphone as well. Yes, unification is a noble ambition, but …

— Still, Obama made “hope” one of his themes. When he mentioned the 106-year-old Atlanta woman who cast a vote for him, it reminded Amani at My Urban Report of his own 101-year-old grandmother.

— DriftGrift is back with a new edition of his “Morning Wooten.” He says Tuesday’s election seems to have brought back the conflict between “reasonable Jim and wacko Jim.” Uh-oh.

— Of course, on the local front is the stunning rise of J-Mart in the U.S. Senate race to push the Big SaxMachine into a run-off. Predictions are the Democrats are going to come in full throttle after Big Saxy. And he’s going to bring his own heavy ammo. Reports are Johnny Mac and Caribou Barbi may come to the Peach State to campaign for him … if she can figure out which continent Georgia is on. And Andre at Georgia Politics Unfiltered notes that the Savannah Morning News has already endorsed the Sax Man in the Dec. 2 run-off.

— And finally, one reason the Republicans got clobbered is they are selling fear rather than hope. And at the Wren’s Nest, they remind us that people once feared electricity. Even Joel Chandler Harris was worried that if he wore a wristwatch on the streetcar, the combination of the two might make him explode. So he came up with a very unique solution that involves a secret desk compartment. Don’t worry, Joel, your secret is safe with me.

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Oh, Jesus. This just in from the Martin campaign:

We’re 25 days away from the December 2 runoff, and we at Jim Martin for Senate will be serving up a helpful heaping of failed Saxby Economics every day until then. Enjoy! Georgia sure hasn’t.

After the jump, view today’s delicious dish!

(more…)

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No one really expected Georgia’s U.S. Senate race to be this tough, cost this much or last this long. Incumbent Republican Saxby Chambliss started off with more money than God, favorable approval ratings, and a late-in-the-game Democratic challenger whose heart, critics said, seemed to be elsewhere. And the Libertarian nominee Allen Buckley? Puh-lease.

But then Wall Street had its meltdown and Congress threw it a gold-plated life preserver. Chambliss was among the 74 senators who voted for the bailout package in a move that angered a great number of conservatives — and royally pissed off Libertarians.

And according to results of Tuesday’s General Election, Buckley gobbled up more than 100,000 votes that arguably would’ve gone to Chambliss. Why do I think that? Buckley’s take for the night was 127,050 votes, or 3.4 percent of people who voted in the race. Libertarian Presidential nominee Bob Barr only snatched 28,583, or 0.7 percent. And everyone — including me — was wondering what impact the presidential race would have on contests farther down the ticket.

After the jump is a transcript of a chat I had nearly two months ago when I interviewed Tom Perdue, the political veteran who managed Chambliss’ campaign, for a story I wrote about the U.S. Senate race.

(more…)

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U.S. Senate Democratic nominee Jim Martin isn’t waiting for election workers to finish counting the ballots in Fulton County before he starts blanketing the airwaves.

And maybe this is just me, but I think he mentions Pres.-elect Barack Obama once or twice in there.

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Behold, Buckhead! On Election Night, U.S. Sen. Saxby Chambliss hosted his campaign party at the Intercontinental Hotel in the posh enclave in North Atlanta. When not shaking hands or buying more drink tickets for the cash bar, party guests monitored election results on screens placed around the ballroom. Notables included U.S. Reps. Lynn “Uppity” Westmoreland and Phil Gingrey, state lawmakers, and even DeKalb County CEO Vernon Jones.

To view more photos of the night — and see how the state’s most well-connected Republicans looked when John McCain conceded to Barack Obama — check out the Sideshow.

(Photo by Thomas Wheatley)

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U.S. Sen. Saxby Chambliss says he’s not waiting for “several thousand” votes to be counted before he begins another political campaign — a potentially vigorous Dec. 2 runoff against Democratic nominee Jim Martin.

What may decide whether the incumbent Republican and Martin — a former state lawmaker who fought an uphill battle to get this far — do continue their campaigns are an undetermined number of votes that include provisional, absentee and military ballots. The results of those ballots, Chambliss said in a conference call today, may not be known until this weekend. The most recent General Election results show his support literally a fraction under the 50 percent he needed to win another six-year term in the U.S. Senate.

Chambliss said 4,000 votes would put him over the top and avoid a runoff. He adds that absentee ballots — of which he estimates 12,000 in the U.S. Senate race have yet to be counted — have traditionally played into the Republicans’ favor. Even with the surge in Democratic voters this election cycle, however, he remains optimistic.

Georgia’s U.S. Senate seat is among several that Democrats are eying to add to the party’s power in Congress. Chambliss said he expects well-publicized and support-generating visits to the state by Pres.-elect Barack Obama and other Democratic luminaries, as well as an influx of money from the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.

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Even with all votes for Georgia’s U.S. Senate seat yet to be counted, Democratic nominee Jim Martin  told reporters Wednesday afternoon he and incumbent Republican Saxby Chambliss are in a runoff.

“The runoff race begins right now,” Martin said, adding that he would not request a recount and instead let the numbers speak for themselves.

Earlier in the day, Chambliss told the AJC he’s not ready to concede to a runoff but that he’s in “full campaign mode.” As of this writing, Georgia Secretary of State Karen Handel’s website shows 96 percent of precincts report the race 49.9-46.7 in Chambliss’ favor. Libertarian nominee Allen Buckley garnered 3.4 percent of the vote.

Martin said he’s been in touch with Barack Obama’s campaign and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. If Chambliss’ lead remains below 50 percent, look for heavy campaigning from the President-elect and other familiar Democratic faces.

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Still with only 96 percent of ballots counted, U.S. Sen. Saxby Chambliss has slipped below 50 percent. In all likely, this means he’ll be forced into a runoff against Democrat Jim Martin.

Chambliss 49.8; Martin 46.8.

Big caveat: This is so tight that Chambliss still could jump above 50 percent.

But if he stays below 50 percent, it’s huge. A runoff would make Georgia the national political battleground for the next four weeks — until the Dec. 2 runoff.

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FiveThirtyEight, one of the most entertaining and informative online resources for this Presidential election, posts an excellent Georgia-centric rundown on the state’s demographics and political dynamics — and how the combination of the two may determine who runs the country come Jan. 20.

From the site:

Since native son Jimmy Carter was on the ballot, Democrats have found Georgia tough sledding. But with African-American turnout soaring to unprecedented levels, Georgia may be a state where the public polling models are off, and indeed Barack Obama has put last minute advertising resources into the state in an effort to both go over 400 electoral votes as well as help a rising tide lift Jim Martin’s boat against Max Cleland-smearing incumbent Saxby Chambliss.

It’s a long read, but it says Georgia’s may be one of the closest races we’ll see on Nov. 4. Definitely worth checking out.

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U.S. Sen. Saxby Chambliss has created an online uproar because of comments he made to a North Georgia crowd.

As quoted by Politico.com:

The Republican is outwardly confident, but there’s urgency in his voice as he tours North Georgia, trying to boost turnout in his predominately white base: “The other folks are voting,” he bluntly tells supporters.

Now, read in this context — “predominately white base” followed by “other folks” — I can see how people might see the connection. But I seriously doubt this is what Chambliss implied. Then again, the Republican incumbent — who is in danger of facing a runoff or even losing his seat to Democratic nominee Jim Martin — is considered to be running one of the most fouled-up races of 2008.

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The polling organization says incumbent Republican Saxby Chambliss leads Democratic nominee Jim Martin 48-43. It also says if Libertarian nominee Allen Buckley’s support remains consistent, a runoff is likely.

Says Rasmussen:

Senator Saxby Chambliss leads Democratic challenger Jim Martin by five percentage points in his bid for re-election in Georgia. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of the race finds the Republican incumbent with 48% of the vote and Martin with 43%. Libertarian Party candidate Allen Buckley picks ups seven percent (7%) of the vote while two percent (2%) remain undecided.

But, under Georgia law, a candidate must win at least 50% of the vote or face a run-off election in December.

If Buckley’s support stays at current levels, it would be difficult for either Chambliss or Martin to win the majority needed to avoid a run-off. It is also possible, however, that some Buckley supporters may choose instead to vote for one of the major party candidates.

A week ago Chambliss was ahead by just two points, the closest the race has been all year and the highest level of support for Martin, whose campaign has spent roughly half-a-million dollars on attack ads against Chambliss over the past month. Just three weeks ago, Chambliss held a six-point lead.

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So what if Libertarian Allen Buckley got enough votes to keep both Saxby Chambliss and Jim Martin from topping 50 percent in the Nov. 4 election? They’d face each other in a Dec. 2 runoff. But which candidate would have the advantage?

It depends on the conventional-wisdom theory you go with.

CW theory #1: Incumbents often lose when they’re forced into runoffs, because people who supported the other candidates are more likely to swing their support to another challenger than to support the status quo.

CW theory #2: Republicans generally win runoffs in Georgia because whites go back to the polls in higher proportions than blacks. (more…)

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Which soft-spoken U.S. Senate candidate — who also served in the Georgia General Assembly — was spotted waiting in queue in Fulton County at 11:20 a.m. to cast his early ballot? We’re not naming any names, but trusted sources say this modern-day Atticus Finch doesn’t just want to kick the incumbent out of office — he also plans to honor his citizen’s duty so he can continue his hard-fought campaign.

Which leads us to wonder: What better time for the incumbent Republican — who we’ll just call Sugar Daddy — to launch a sneak attack against this challenger than when he’s standing two hours in the cold, like a noble soldier, slogging on the slow march toward freedom and a brighter life for all Americans? See him stand there, like a beacon of justice, like a — wait, what the hell am I writing? Jim Martin was seen standing in line to vote early with Joan, his wife, just now in Fulton County.

My inimitable colleague Scott Henry just returned from Fulton County’s early voting location and spotted Martin there. He says the line was two hours long.

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It’s not just the Democratic and Republican Senate campaign committees  shoveling money and resources into Georgia’s U.S. Senate race.

The Virginia-based Susan B. Anthony List, a pro-life women’s organization with a well-connected advisory committee, has jumped into the tight race and sent a heartwarming mailer  that accuses Democratic challenger Jim Martin of campaigning against a ban on partial-birth abortions while he served in the General Assembly. Joy Yearout, the group’s policy director, says the mailer was sent to “identified social conservative voters statewide.” Yearout says the group has also contributed to and endorsed Deborah Honeycutt’s campaign in her race against incumbent Congressman David Scott for District 12.

There aren’t any graphic images on the mailer, but because of the issue’s sensitivity, I’ve posted photos of it after the jump.

(more…)

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This is going to be an interesting week. And a busy one.

Pollster, a website that somehow eats every single political poll IN THE WORLD and then burps them out in color-coded maps, says Georgia is now a “toss up” between John McCain and Barack Obama. Yep, Georgia.

Wonkette says no way, but we’ll see.

Pollster’s also calling “toss up” about Georgia’s U.S. Senate seat. Nearly everyone thought incumbent Republican Saxby Chambliss would easily win a second term in his race against Democratic nominee Jim Martin and Libertarian challenger Allen Buckley. Turns out all of ‘em — me included — were wrong. Signs point to a run off in that race.

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