Fresh Loaf

Huffington Post reported this afternoon that former Veep Al Gore will campaign here Sunday for Democratic Senate candidate Jim Martin. I’m sure Young Thomas will be getting us more details later.

Meanwhile, here are details on former President Bill Clinton’s visit tomorrow (or today by the time you read this) at Clark Atlanta University on behalf of Martin. For those keeping score, John McCain and Mike Huckabee have campaigned for Republican Sen. Saxby Chambliss, while this gun-totin’ man joins him Wednesday and investment banker Mitt Romney stumps for him Friday.

The AJC’s reporting that both candidates aren’t planning to participate in a debate the Atlanta Press Club was to tape on Sunday — Martin because he’ll be campaigning with Gore, Chambliss apparently just because he’s a big ol’ scared-y-pants.

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So what if Libertarian Allen Buckley got enough votes to keep both Saxby Chambliss and Jim Martin from topping 50 percent in the Nov. 4 election? They’d face each other in a Dec. 2 runoff. But which candidate would have the advantage?

It depends on the conventional-wisdom theory you go with.

CW theory #1: Incumbents often lose when they’re forced into runoffs, because people who supported the other candidates are more likely to swing their support to another challenger than to support the status quo.

CW theory #2: Republicans generally win runoffs in Georgia because whites go back to the polls in higher proportions than blacks. (more…)

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Pollster.com today switched Georgia’s U.S. Senate contest to yellow, signifying that it could go either way in the Nov. 4 election. Looks like Saxby Chambliss vote for the Wall Street bailout isn’t doing him much good.

Just last night, I reported that pollster.com — which derives its rankings from a running average of surveys from legitimate polling companies — had switched the seat now held by Republican Chambliss from red to pink, meaning it still leaned Republican.

But today the average is 46.3 for Chambliss versus 42.5  for  Martin, which pollster.com considers a tossup. Four of the last five polls placed Martin within 3 percent of Chambliss.

Although the incumbent Republican still has to be considered the favorite — particularly with all the money he can use to inundate the airwaves with late negative ads — but 46.3 percent
is a very dangerous number for Chambliss. Any time the incumbent falls that far below 50 percent he’s in the danger zone.

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After appearing as a safe Republican seat for most of the campaign season, Georgia’s U.S. Senate race has joined a list of three other contests that lean Republican but could be vulnerable to a Democratic upset, according to pollster.com.

The switch comes on the heals of today’s Rasmussen poll, which found Democrat Jim Martin trailing incumbent Republican Saxby Chambliss by just 6 percentage points. A running average on pollster.com now places Chambliss at 48.3 percent and Martin at 41.7 percent, well within striking difference if Democratic turnout is a lot stronger than the GOP’s.

Pollster.com now projects Democrats to hold at least 54 seats in the next Congress, while also caucusing with two independents. Races in Alaska, Minnesota and Oregon are considered tossups. If those seats went Democratic, the party would need an upset in any of the four Republican leaning (or “pink”) contests to gain a filibuster-proof, 60-member majority. Those contests are in Kentucky, Mississippi, Texas and Georgia.

You can view the Senate projections by using the “Map Chooser” dropdown menu on the pollster.com page.

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Here’s a quick rundown on the July 15 Georgia primary results. The big news was generated by high-stakes runoffs:

* U.S. senator: The two experienced Democrats — Vernon Jones and Joe Martin — vanquished three first-time candidates and will face each other in an Aug. 5 runoff. With 91 percent of precincts counted, DeKalb CEO Jones won 40 percent of the vote, while Martin got 35 percent. Martin — who entered the race late and has been criticized for a lackluster campaign — may have a slight edge in the runoff: He has more money in the bank, he seems more likely to pick up support from supporters of other candidates, and his largely white base historically shows up for runoffs better than does Jones’ base of black voters. What does Jones have going for him? A runoff in the contest for who will replace him as DeKalb CEO could spur turnout in his home county. The winner takes on Republican incumbent Saxby Chambliss in November.

* DeKalb County CEO: The contest for the most powerful local government post in the state heads for a runoff as well, although DeKalb Commissioner Burrell Ellis turned out an impressive showing with 46 percent of the vote. No surprise that he’ll face well-liked state Rep. Stan Watson in the runoff. But a 20 point head start has gotta give Ellis the edge. (more…)

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How did Dale Cardwell endure camping atop downtown’s Corey Tower on the coldest night of the winter thus far?

“I was pretty comfortable,” he told me this morning, “I have an electric blanket. Honestly, I was too hot. I kept having to open up my sleeping bag to let some cold air in.”

He says at 11 this morning, he’ll get on his webcam to interact with viewers and supporters, as well as share his panoramic view of the city.

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EXCLUSIVE: In response to Dale Cardwell’s grab for media attention atop the Corey Tower downtown, fellow Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate Josh Lanier tells CL he plans to row a small boat to the middle of Lake Lanier tomorrow.”I will not leave until Georgians hear my message of change, or until Lake Lanier is empty, whichever happens first,” Lanier said.

We will keep you updated.

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EXCLUSIVE: Impressed by the news media’s response to Democratic Senate candidate Dale Cardwell’s promise to camp atop Corey Tower until Georgians hear his political message, DeKalb CEO Vernon Jones announced a similar initiative.

Jones tells CL he will go to Twist Restaurant and Lounge at Phipps Plaza in Buckhead tonight and not leave until every Georgian, especially the attractive females, understands how dedicated he is to serving their needs.

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CL INTERVIEWS SENATE CANDIDATE DALE CARDWELL ATOP THE COREY TOWER: Meet the David Blaine of Georgia politics.

(photo by Joeff Davis)

“I didn’t expect it to be this cold.”

So said Dale Cardwell, speaking to me via phone from his perch atop Corey tower, a disused 300-feet tall smokestack near the state Capitol.

The Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate and former TV reporter says he won’t come down until Georgia voters understand the extent to which their government is being controlled by special interests and big corporations, and understand how dedicated he is to fixing government if he’s elected.

“I feel as though I have to do something significant to show my resolve,” he said.

As Cardwell explains it, camping out atop the tower isn’t so much a stunt as it is a political necessity. He can’t afford to buy attention for his campaign by buying ads, so he’s doing something dramatic to attract the attention of a fickle news media obsessed with providing what he calls “30-second Britney updates.”

The plan may be working. As of noon, Cardwell says he’s done 12 newspaper interviews and three radio interviews. He expects TV reporters to show up tomorrow when the weather’s better.

Despite icy temperatures and wind that kept him awake for all but two hours last night, Cardwell sounded relaxed and cheerful when we spoke. He was also impressively on-message, politely replying to each of my stupid questions with thoughtful answers echoing his campaign platform.

The only hint that the cold might be getting to him came when the conversation turned to global warming.

“I believe we have a serious problem with global warming,” he said, “but I’d like to delay any solution for at least a week.”

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