Q Poll: Voters would approve gay marriage ban
June 3, 2008 at 10:53 am by Wayne GarciaThe latest Quinnipiac University poll out today (and downloadable as a Word doc) is not great news for opponents of the Florida Constitutional ban on gay marriage, aka Amendment 2 — 58 percent of Floridians would vote to approve the prohibition against same-sex nuptials, despite the fact that such a ban is already state law:
Florida voters support 58 - 37 percent a constitutional amendment that specifically defines marriage as a legal union between a man and a woman, making same-sex marriage illegal in Florida. Republicans back the measure 77 - 19 percent, as independent voters support it 52 - 44 percent, while Democrats oppose it 52 - 44 percent. Voters with no college degree back the amendment 64 - 32 percent, while college-educated voters oppose it 50 - 46 percent.
Note the split between college-educated and non-college-educated respondents. Ever wonder why the Republican-led Legislature is so hell-bent on crippling the state’s university system? Pound the university system into submission and maybe you can lower that opposition to stupid right-wing amendments, they gotta figure.
In related news, Gov. Charlie Crist’s approval rating continues to be strong at 61-23, although below his initial months after inauguration in 2007. Here is what the Q poll found:
“Any politician would die to have Gov. Charlie Crist’s approval rating. The economy is down; state programs are being cut and 60 percent of voters say they are somewhat or very dissatisfied with the way things are going in Florida today, yet his numbers remain very, very good,” said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
Crist’s support remains solid across the board with 67 percent of Republicans, 60 percent of Democrats and 55 percent of independents giving him a thumbs up. In addition, 55 per cent of voters say Crist has kept his campaign promises.
Kept his campaign promises? I don’t recall him promising on the campaign trail to sit by impotently while the Legislature ignored his proposed budget and failed to tap reserves rather than make disastrous cuts to schools, or his promise to fail to bring about real property tax reform.
Finally, here are the approval ratings for other cabinet officials:
- U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson, 51 - 26 percent;
- U.S. Sen. Mel Martinez, 40 - 35 percent;
- State Attorney General Bill McCollum, 52 - 20 percent;
- Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink, 33 - 25 percent.
Melquiades’ numbers suck, while McCollum’s seem off the charts, given that he lost the 2004 race to Martinez but has been rumored to be prepping another shot at it because of Melquiades’ poor showing in Congress. The high McCollum numbers (I just can’t imagine anyone really liking him) make me suspicious that this was a very Republican sample for this poll.
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June 3rd, 2008 at 1:43 pm
Wayne,
Remember the marraige amendment needs 60% to pass. However, I am not one to know much about margins of error and cross tabs…Is 58 close enough to say its a winner?
June 3rd, 2008 at 2:57 pm
No, in fact you would have to say that normally, in order to win a referendum you have to start at least 10 points above what you need to win as you will lose ground as the opponents whack away at you. But this kind of divisive social issue can cut just the opposite, depending on the campaign, and opponents could conceivably push it above the threshold if the right nasty campaign results. Now, the opponents have a solid plan to win over hetero votes who will be worried that the gay rights amendment could kill some benefits they enjoy in non-married common law type situations.
short answer, then, it is hard to say, more difficult than a normal referendum. But Reality is right; at the current level, this thing is not a sure bet to pass.
June 3rd, 2008 at 2:59 pm
Oh, forgot to add this above: part of my concern at the number, 58 percent against gay marriage, is less a comment on the referendum passage and more a comment that the longtime number of those against it continues to hover around 60 percent without any significant change toward more tolerance
June 3rd, 2008 at 5:58 pm
If you are that concerned about tolerance, perhaps you should reconsider your membership in an organization that discriminates against gays:
http://www.skeptictank.org/bsagayh3.htm
June 4th, 2008 at 10:11 am
Rockabilly — I have continually re-examined that and totally disagree with the organization’s stance on gays, although I support their right to have that stance. For me, the decision comes down to the good that I can do vs the harm that the national position does