The Political Whore

A study released today (.pdf here) finds that while African American voters in California did support the anti-gay marriage Proposition 8 in higher percentages than other ethnic groups, they did not do so in “overwhelming numbers.”

The study by two professors found:

That after taking into account the effect of religious service attendance, support for Proposition 8 among African Americans and Latinos was not significantly different than other groups. Through a precinct-by-precinct analysis and review of multiple other sources of data, the study also puts African-American support for Proposition 8 at no more than 59 percent, nowhere close to the 70 percent reported the night of the election. Finally, the study shows how support for marriage equality has grown substantially across almost all California demographic groups — except Republicans.

What drove the vote? Party ID, religious attendance rates and ideology, not race or ethnicity:

• The two most important characteristics determining the vote were party identification and ideology.
  Those self describing as Democrats or Liberals, overwhelmingly opposed Prop 8. Those self describing as Republicans or Conservatives, overwhelmingly supported California Proposition 8.

• The third most important characteristic determining the vote was religiosity.
  Those attending religious services every week, supported Prop 8 by 70% while those attending once a month opposed it by 52% and those hardly ever attending opposed it by 70%.

• The fourth most important characteristic determining the vote was age.
  All the ages groups opposed Prop 8, except for those 65+ who supported it by 67%.
  As importantly, when compared to another marriage initiative in California in 2000 (the Knight initiative), all age groups increased their support of same sex marriage equality in 2008—except for those 65 years of age or older.

• African Americans and Latinos supported Prop 8 by 58 and 59% respectively—not 70% plus as reported in an exit poll on November 4, 2008.
  Furthermore, their vote correlates more with religiosity than race.

• Contrary to popular belief, knowing an LGBT person was not a significant factor in opposing California Proposition 8.

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