The impact of a Charlie Crist for Senate campaign
May 11, 2009 at 6:22 am by Jim Johnson
Many people expect an announcement that Florida Gov. Charlie Crist will say he’s running for the U.S. Senate on Tuesday, when the governor is set to announce his political future. To be sure, an open Senate seat does not come along very often … but this could be a major problem for Republicans.
Oh, to be sure, a match-up between the more moderate Crist and the conservative Marco Rubio would be an interesting race. It will be a strong indication of the future direction of the party, and it will suck the wind out of the sails for other Republicans.
The Palm Beach Post political blog wrote last week about the musical chairs to be faced if (when) Crist announces for the Senate race:
- Florida Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink, the lone Democratic member of the Florida Cabinet, will surely run for Governor. This opens the door for Florida Senate President Jeff Atwater to take the post back for Republicans. No prominent Democrat has been mentioned as a possible candidate here.
- Florida Attorney General Bill McCollum will likely follow Sink into the gubernatorial race. Democratic state Senator Dave Aronberg will most likely run for the open AG seat. The only Republican mentioned for this race, Representative Adam Hasner has indicated he will not be running for the office in 2010.
To be sure, there could be other dominoes to fall. Less prominent state legislators could seek the CFO and AG positions; a few might even try for the Governor’s mansion. That could set off a scramble in communities as more legislative seats open.
That level of uncertainty opens the door wide for Democrats. The potential exists for a strong Democratic push in 2010, with a popular President and as significant edge in national party financing. My Republican colleagues will likely disagree, but possibility exists for a very bad election cycle for the GOP.
None of this happens if Crist runs for re-election. Status-quo would hold true. Oh, to be sure there will be competitive races here and there, but nothing like the Pandora’s Box about to be opened.
