Marco Rubio’s longshot bid is now even longer
July 8, 2009 at 11:23 pm by Jim Johnson
Campaign finance reports are coming in for federal, state, and local offices. Reports are filed quarterly, covering the period three months prior – money raised from April 1 through June 30 of this year. With the election still more than a year away, campaign finance numbers show the relative strength of the candidates. In the race for the United States Senate, Republican Marco Rubio could be in trouble.
Rubio, the former Speaker of the Florida House of Representatives and darling of the conservative movement, reported raising a paltry $340,000 in his first quarter as a candidate for the United States Senate. Meanwhile, Congressman Kendrick Meek (D-Miami) raised $1.2 million in the same period, raising his total to around $3 million. Republican Governor Charlie Crist, Rubio’s opponent in the primary, has not released numbers yet; media reports say the governor’s campaign is “still counting” their money, with analysts expecting Crist to report raising $3 million.
Rubio does have some interesting facets to his numbers. His campaign indicates he raised $144,000 through online donations, and contributors come from all 50 states. These numbers show a donor base that has clearly not reached its potential to give. Federal law limits campaign donations to $2,400 per person or political action committee for the primary and general elections. So most of Rubio’s supporters could give “again and again and again.”
Of course, if Crist reports $3 million this quarter, Rubio has to spend time asking “again and again and again,” while Crist can work to expand his donor base and reach out to more people.
The real problem
A recent poll indicated that Rubio can compete very well with Crist, polling in a virtual tie with the governor among Republicans who know both of them. But only about 2/5ths of Republicans in Florida have even heard of Rubio. And it will take a lot of money to raise that number substantially.
Florida has ten media markets where Rubio will have to buy advertising, including three of the top 20 in the nation. We are among the most expensive states in the country, and Crist will have enough money at his disposal to swamp Rubio on television.
To further add to Rubio’s problem, the National Republican Senatorial Committee has endorsed Crist, adding most of the national political action committees to Crist’s side of the ledger. Crist, as sitting governor, can also soften Rubio’s very strong base of groups on Tallahassee.
Rubio’s campaign is doing its best to make this sow’s ear look like a silk purse. He needed a strong first quarter and didn’t get it. I don’t think he will quit the race anytime soon, but if he doesn’t reach the $1 million this next quarter, he could be in for a very long, very brutal campaign that may not be good for the Republican Party.
In closing, I want to add that I like Marco Rubio. I personally wish Governor Crist had decided to run for re-election. If Rubio’s fundraising doesn’t improve, I hope he considers switching to run for Attorney General — a race without a strong GOP candidate.
