The Political Whore

First, any prognostication made this far in advance has to be taken with a grain of salt. So, keep that in mind as you read what I am about to say: Kendrick Meek will lose his bid for the U.S. Senate.

Now, there will be quite a few people up in arms about this. I’m sorry. Maybe this will make them work harder to prove me wrong. One of those things where knowing the future could change the future… but I digress.

There are quite a few reasons why I think he will lose, and none are related to the color of his skin. Read the rest of this entry »

In an interesting turn of events, it seems State Rep. Seth McKeel likely won’t be running for Congress. McKeel was among those publicly considering running for Congressman Adam Putnam’s seat when (if?) Congressman Putnam announces his bid for Commissioner of Agriculture.

According to the Ledger:

At least one person looking at the race and a handful of business community members say the McKeels, who recently had their second child, have already decided that Seth will stay in the Legislature where he is posed to become a rising star.

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Former House Minority Leader and current Florida Sen. Dan Gelber, to no one’s surprise, is set to announce his Democratic candidacy for Mel Martinez’s seat. The Miami Herald:

Democratic state Sen. Dan Gelber of Miami Beach will announce tomorrow what everybody already knows — that he’s running for the U.S. Senate in 2010.

The race is a Miami-Dade family feud so far, with Democratic U.S. Rep. Kendrick Meek of Miami as the only other announced candidate. Former House Speaker Marco Rubio of Miami is also expected to run.

Researchers polled it with top Democrat Alex Sink in the race, even though she has announced she will not run, and still it wasn’t great news for Democrats. The Quinnipiac University poll released this week shows the difficulty Obama’s party will have in winning Mel Martinez’s Florida seat in 2010, as I outlined in my column this week.

Atty General Bill McCollum (courtesy myfloridalegal.com)

It was a toss-up with Sink in the race, at least against GOP Attorney General and anti-casino noodge Bill McCollum. McCollum led 36 percent-35 percent. Not exactly a great starting point for your strongest candidate — who is not even running.

The breakdown of the rest of the race:

Had Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink decided to run for the U.S. Senate, she would have had a small early lead in the Democratic field, and run almost even with the best-known GOP potential candidate, Attorney General Bill McCollum, with 35 percent for Sink and 36 percent for McCollum, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds.

Although McCollum holds a wide lead in name recognition among the GOP candidates, U.S. Rep. Connie Mack IV, son of the former senator with the same name, runs closely to him in a trial heat of GOP contenders and also is viewed very positively by the party-rank-in-file.

“No one has surfaced as a likely Democratic opponent for Gov. Charlie Crist and that’s not surprising given how well he is thought of by Floridians,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. “It’s impressive at this time of national Obamamania that Gov. Crist’s favorability rating is slightly higher than that of the new President. Of course, it’s still more than 21 months until the 2010 election, but Charlie Crist looks like a very strong candidate for re-election.”

Here is how they stand today (a fairly meaningless exercise, I admit, except for ammo in early fundraising) on the Democratic side:

Read the rest of this entry »

Baker w/out the stache

Peter Schorsch is a political consultant and writes St. Petersblog 2.0. He joins PoHo as a regular contributor with this post:

I’ve been thinking a lot lately about Rick Baker and what he will do after his term in office runs out in 2009. I have to admit he’s done an admirable job as the first real strong mayor, presiding over a prosperous, progressive period in St. Petersburg’s history. I don’t know if that translates into a statewide position but there is one way he could instantly improve his chances if he decides to run for Chief Financial Officer: SHAVE THE ‘STACHE!

Far be it for me to criticize someone else’s looks, but I strongly believe people hesitate voting for politicians with mustaches. I remember working with a client running for judge who had all the advantages in the world, save one: he had a porn mustache straight out of 1977. I begged him to shave that beaver off his face but he just wouldn’t part with it. I even went so far as to Photoshop a picture of him, demonstrating how youthful he looked without his beloved ’stache. It was no use. He went on to lose that race (and a few more after that).

That’s why if hizzoner is serious about running statewide, he’s gonna have pull out the Mach 3. In fact, by just doing some cursory research, I’m hard-pressed to find a politician with a mustache who has won statewide.

Read the rest of this entry »

It started a few weeks ago, rumors flying that perhaps Hillsborough County Commissioner Ken Hagan was eyeing a jump to another seat on that board in 2010 in order to overcome term limits, which he would face in 2012. The story went that he would jump to the departing Jim Norman’s seat and state Sen. Victor Crist, term limited in Tallahassee in 2010, would run for Hagan’s seat.

I mentioned the possibility that Hagan could jump seats (and it is possible, legally that is) and about a week later, Patrick Manteiga at La Gaceta reported that the two actually had arranged the switcheroo.

But Crist, no relation to the governor, tells me no deal.

“I have to leave [the Senate] because of term limits,” Crist said by telephone from his Tallahassee office, where he had just finished up the special session on budget cuts. “I love public policy. I have options. I have my own political base, accomplishments and track record that I don’t need to cut any deals.”

Crist said he has not committed to any race or campaign and is keeping all his options open. But he did say he wants to stay in public office and continue working on issues he cares about, including improvements in the Suitcase City neighborhood near USF and criminal justice.

(Hey, I forgot when I posted this to add my disclaimer, that I represented Crist in one of his Senate races when I was a political consultant. Sorry about the omission.)

In the endless cycle that has become the modern campaign seasons, we’re already hot and heavy into the next go-round for the 2010 elections (skipping entirely the marquee St. Pete mayor’s race for now). Here are some early observations on local, state and national races of importance:

• Hillsborough County Commissioner Jim Norman is trying to move up to the Florida Senate, and he will face state Rep. Kevin Ambler in a Republican primary. This is the Hillsborough-Pasco seat now held by Sen. Victor Crist of Tampa, a Republican.
  Norman has already raised more than $215,000, according to state records; Ambler has raised just $750, as most of his 2008 contributions went to his House re-election campaign.
• Speaking of Crist, it is expected that he will seek a seat on the County Commission. Most think that it will be Norman’s vacant seat (Crist lives in the district), but it’s possible Crist could run for the seat now held by Commissioner Ken Hagan and Hagan could run for Norman’s seat, gaining additional years on the commission (Hagan would be term-limited in 2012 without such a switch).
• Former Hillsborough County Commissioner Brian Blair surprised local politicos when he all-but-announced late last year that he would seek Ambler’s House 47 seat. Lining up for that race was Rich Reidy, a Republican aide to Commissioner Hagan who was not expecting Blair to get into the race. Neither possible candidate has opened a campaign account yet, but word is that Blair is trying to line up Doug McAlarney, a Republican political consultant who helped get state Rep. Ed Homan, R-Temple Terrace, elected.
• Ronda Storms? The rumor mill is rife with the idea that, having given birth to a second child in 2008, she would opt out of the 2010 elections and stay home. But she has opened a campaign account for re-election and was “incensed” when the Times asked if her future plans included leaving the Senate.
  Read the rest of this entry »

Tampa Mayor Pam Iorio’s future political ambitions have been the subject of speculation for years now, but this is the most graphic example of where some think she may be headed, from FLA Politics’ “ideal candidate slate” for 2010::

Governor

Pam Iorio

Pam Iorio (born April 27, 1959 in Waterville , Maine ) is the 57th and current (as of 2008) mayor of Tampa , Florida . She moved with her family to Temple Terrace as an infant and also attended school in Temple Terrace . She is the second female mayor of Tampa.Her first term dealt largely with renovating the downtown area, as well as creating economic confidence for poorer citizens of the city. Iorio is also a big supporter of the arts, and she wishes to make Tampa a major arts center in the South. Iorio has also been credited with a sharp drop in drug trafficking in the city limits. In her second term, Iorio will continue to be a supporter for a light rail mass transit system for the city.

In 1985, at the age of 26, she became the youngest person ever elected to the Hillsborough County Commission. For a decade before her successful run for mayor, she served as Supervisor of Elections for Hillsborough County . During the 2000 presidential election recount, she was the president of the State Association of County Elections Supervisors.

How realistic is that scenario? Consider that the South Florida-centric FLA Politics blog lists Congressman Kendrick Meek as the Dems’ best choice to run for the US Senate seat being vacated by Mel Martinez.

Here’s a wrap-up on what we know about who is in and who is out in the race for the U.S. Senate in 2010:

DEMOCRATS

CFO Alex Sink — definitely rethinking the race now that Mel is out. The Trib said she “is her party’s 800-pound gorilla – if she wants the nomination, it’s hers.”

State Sen. Dan Gelber — well liked in the party but not known outside of South Florida, despite his turn heading up the 2008 election cycle for the Democrats. A race against Martinez that would have raised his profile and set the table for a future statewide run would have been a better fit for him than a battle possibly against Alex Sink.

Allen Boyd — A congressman from the Panhandle whose name recognition statewide is too low.

Congresswoman Debbie Wasserman-Schulz of Weston — Her spokesman said she’s happy in the House, where she is a rising star in the capo regime of Nancy Pelosi.

Former Tampa Congressman Jim Davis — The Trib reports he is not interested. His name continues to be bandied about for Tampa mayor in 2011, although some believe he won’t run and is happy making money as a Washington and Tampa lawyer.

Tampa Mayor Pam Iorio — Uncertain, gave a noncomittal answer to queries.

Other names out there: Others: U.S. Rep. Kendrick Meek, Frank Sanchez of Tampa, fundraiser Chris Korge of Miami, Boca Raton Congressman Ron Klein.

Analysis: Sink has a strong advantage if she chooses to run, and she likely will, but expect other Democrats to get in as well, hoping for her to stumble or taking the opportunity to build their statewide name recognition.

REPUBLICANS

Former Gov. Jeb Bush — Martinez’s dropout changes everything for the former guv and presidential brother. Bush would have been positioned to run for president in 2012 if his brother hadn’t so sullied the Bush name. Bush is allowing friends to leak out his interest in the seat, and he would wipe not only any GOP candidate off the map but any Democrat as well. The seat is his for the taking.

Attorney General Bill McCollum — Propped up by the social conservative wing of the party, McCollum has been trying to get back to Washington since his days in the House trying to impeach Bill Clinton. He’ll run for sure unless Jeb! gets in.

Former House Speaker Marco Rubio of Miami — definitely interested.

Former House Speaker Alan Bense of Panama City — definitely interested.

Congressman Connie Mack IV — definitely interested.

Charlie Crist — Forget about it; Charlie is better positioned to run for higher office (read: president) as the centrist governor of Florida than having to play the Capitol games in the US Senate.

Congressman Adam Putnam of Bartow — Howdy Doody stays put in the US House for now and is eyeing a run for the Ag Commissioner slot in 2010.

Others mentioned: State Sen. Dan Webster, Fla. House Majority Leader Adam Hasner of Delray Beach, Orange County Mayor Rich Crotty, Congressman John Mica of Winter Park, Congresswoman Ginnie Brown-Waite.

Analysis: Jeb! is unbeatable, and if he gets in, there will be no substantive GOP primary. Running against him is a suicide mission that will be viewed as disloyal by the Republican faithful. Everybody else (but McCollum) is just throwing their name out there for free publicity.

Other coverage:Orlando Sentinel here and here; AP; Palm Beach Post.

It won’t be incumbent Republican Mel Martinez, who shocked the establishment today with his announcement that he will be a one-term wonder:

The Senate is the only federal office carrying a six-year term, so a decision about whether to run for re-election is one that my family and I have carefully considered over the past year. It was a question that came to mind as I wrote my book – causing me to reflect on the path I’ve chosen, and to think about, with love and gratitude, those who’ve traveled with me.

The inescapable truth, for me, is that the call to public service is strong, but the call to home, family and lifelong friends is even stronger.

So today, with deep love for this country and with sincere gratitude to the people who placed their trust in me, I announce that I will not run for reelection to the United States Senate.

(full text after the jump)

The Orlando Sentinel reported that Martinez’s fundraising had lagged, hurt by a probe into his 2004 campaign.

And until Martinez made his surprising announcement, it wasn’t going to be Florida CFO Alex Sink, either. Sink had signaled to numerous reporters that she was taking a pass on the 2010 Senate race in favor of sitting tight as the highest-ranking elected Democrat in the state. But in the aftermath of Martinez’s surprise, Sink is rethinking the race, according to March on Politics:

Suddenly, after Sen. Mel Martinez’s announcement that he won’t run for re-election, Alex Sink’s staff is retracting her leaked plans to forgo the Senate race. “I spoke too soon—there’s not going to be an announcement today,” a Sink spokeswoman said.

Unnamed sources close to Sink had spread the word among reporters this morning that she would run for re-election to her chief financial officer seat in 2010 rather than seek the Martinez Senate seat. A formal announcement would be coming before lunchtime, they said.

Best guess: The Martinez pull-out puts Sink back into it, since she has been looking for either an open Senate seat or Governor’s race for her next jump up. But she won’t be alone in the primary. Expect lots of other Democrats to take a look, including former state House Minority Leader Dan Gelber and South Florida state Sen. Dave Aronberg.

On the GOP side, it will be a free-for-all, with Attorney General Bill McCollum clearly coveting the return trip to Washington that he tried to win in 2004. The deep GOP bench could also find players such as former House Speaker Marco Rubio and Sen. Dan Webster. More to come on this speculation, and that’s all it is for now.

Read the rest of this entry »

Senator Mel is in some trouble, if the Quinnipiac Poll released today is any indication. The Miami Herald puts it into context:

Sen. Mel Martinez could face a tough re-election, as a Quinnipiac University poll released today shows him receiving approval from only 42 percent of the voters. According to the survey, 33 percent disapprove of Martinez.

In contrast, Gov. Charlie Crist looks hard to beat with a 68 approval rating. Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink would be his strongest Democratic challenger, according to the poll, though her approval rating is only 35 percent.

“Florida votes Democrat for president, unseats a couple of Republican congressmen and the state GOP is worrying about the state turning blue, but nothing seems to hurt Gov. Crist,” said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. “Even in bad economic times and with his Republican Party seemingly on the ropes, he remains incredibly popular.”

Martinez underwhelmed his party with his relatively short stint as chairman of the RNC, angered conservatives with his stance on immigration reform, and upset his constituents by looking like he was paying more attention to partisan matters than the Congress to which he was elected to represent the state. And aside from his dramatic back story (Martinez came to this nation as a teen as part of the “Peter Pan” airlift out of communist Cuba) and his propensity to govern as a moderate and run as a conservative, Martinez has pretty much been a big zero in the Senate.

The Q Poll’s Brown says Martinez’s re-election, however, is not out of the question. “Martinez’ numbers aren’t awful,” Brown said in a press release accompanying the poll results. “The key to his winning re-election will be winning back the allegiance of independent voters, who currently are not in his corner. But with a third of independents saying they re undecided, he certainly has an opportunity to accomplish that end.”