The Political Whore

From the there’s-no-such-thing-as-bad-publicity-(or-polling) files comes this pitch to Scott Wagman supporters to pony up some bucks despite a pretty rotten showing in a recent St. Petersburg Times poll that placed Wagman tied for fourth, behind Kathleen Ford, Bill Foster and Deveron Gibbons and tied with Larry Williams.

For those not studied in the art of politics, this is called spin.

But before the Wagman haters chime in, let’s give some context to the poll. More than 60 percent of the voters surveyed said they didn’t have a preference yet, meaning that this is a wide open race and the poll was only an indication of a lack of voter engagement and existing name recognition, not a legit look at who will finish in what order. I don’t say this to defend Wagman’s poor showing; but the truth is not all of the campaigns have spent little or nothing in tems of direct voter contact (direct mail, television ads, radio ads, robo-phone calls, etc.) that is what gets voters ready to make decisions. At best, some of the campaigns have been walking door to door and using some new media advertising on Facebook and the like. That’s not enough to drive serious interest to an off-election year municipal election.

But Wagman felt his placement in the poll could be spun to his advantage with supporters and sent them this e-mail today: Read the rest of this entry »

By Jim Johnson
PoHo Contributor

Jim Johnson is the creator of The State of Sunshine blog.

What would you do if the Tampa Tribune or St. Petersburg Times (or both) folded?
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The Republican Party’s anti-Obama stimulus gambit appears not to be paying off. A poll by AP/GfK shows the public widely is siding with Obama and Democrats in Congress on the economic recovery plan — and panning the GOP.

Obama’s approval rating on the economy is 68 percent. The Democrats in Congress get a 49 percent approval, while Congressional Republicans score only 33 percent approval.

TPM reports:

Read the rest of this entry »

With everybody awaiting Gov. Charlie Crist’s decision on whether he will get in the race or not, early polling in the 2010 U.S. Senate elections in Florida is highly speculative.

But it does have value. On the Democratic side, it helps shape decisions to run or not to run. And it helps the early money figure out on whom to bet, errr, give a campaign contribution.

Given those two benefits, you have to think that today’s Strategic Visions poll on the 2010 race emboldens Tampa Mayor Pam Iorio.

Read the rest of this entry »

Researchers polled it with top Democrat Alex Sink in the race, even though she has announced she will not run, and still it wasn’t great news for Democrats. The Quinnipiac University poll released this week shows the difficulty Obama’s party will have in winning Mel Martinez’s Florida seat in 2010, as I outlined in my column this week.

Atty General Bill McCollum (courtesy myfloridalegal.com)

It was a toss-up with Sink in the race, at least against GOP Attorney General and anti-casino noodge Bill McCollum. McCollum led 36 percent-35 percent. Not exactly a great starting point for your strongest candidate — who is not even running.

The breakdown of the rest of the race:

Had Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink decided to run for the U.S. Senate, she would have had a small early lead in the Democratic field, and run almost even with the best-known GOP potential candidate, Attorney General Bill McCollum, with 35 percent for Sink and 36 percent for McCollum, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds.

Although McCollum holds a wide lead in name recognition among the GOP candidates, U.S. Rep. Connie Mack IV, son of the former senator with the same name, runs closely to him in a trial heat of GOP contenders and also is viewed very positively by the party-rank-in-file.

“No one has surfaced as a likely Democratic opponent for Gov. Charlie Crist and that’s not surprising given how well he is thought of by Floridians,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. “It’s impressive at this time of national Obamamania that Gov. Crist’s favorability rating is slightly higher than that of the new President. Of course, it’s still more than 21 months until the 2010 election, but Charlie Crist looks like a very strong candidate for re-election.”

Here is how they stand today (a fairly meaningless exercise, I admit, except for ammo in early fundraising) on the Democratic side:

Read the rest of this entry »

That would the only explanation for today’s Qunnipiac Poll about the economy in our state:

Florida voters are surprisingly upbeat about their personal financial condition, as 56 percent say family finances are “excellent” or “good,” and 43 percent say they are “not so good” or “poor,” according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. But only 31 percent expect things to get better in the next year, while 21 percent say they will get worse and 44 percent say they will stay the same.

Lying about your personal financial condition makes sense. After all, who wants to admit, even to a pollster in anonymity, that their household budget is shot to hell, that they have more personal debt than some small Latin American nations, and that the Holiday Season is going to be slim pickins.

credit: thetruthabout/flickr.com

The poll even hints at this disconnect between our view of how we are doing and the way we tell others about it:

Voters say 59 – 20 percent that they are worse off then they were a year ago, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds.

“The housing meltdown hit Florida worse than most of the rest of the country and unemployment has risen there, yet voters aren’t nearly as pessimistic about their situation or their prospects as in some other states,” said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

(So we’re either more optimistic than the nation at large or too stupid to know we’re in real trouble in the Sunshine State. I vote for the latter.)

“Only 53 percent say they are somewhat or very dissatisfied with the way things are going in Florida today, while 47 percent are very or somewhat satisfied. That’s pretty optimistic given the economy, stock market crash and predictions that the recession could be deep and long,” said Brown. “There are higher levels of pessimism in other parts of the country.”

“A November 13 Quinnipiac University national poll showed a record high 82 percent level of dissatisfaction.”

And anyone wondering just how much red remains in this purple state of ours need look no further than the poll’s top answer for our economic woes:

Floridians say 58 – 30 percent that more cuts in local property taxes are needed, in part because local officials have failed reduce assessments to reflect the decline in property values. They think 73 – 22 percent the voting public, not the Legislature, should make the tax cuts. When it comes to the state budget, they want spending cut rather than taxes raised….

That’s right, giving homeowners a few measly hundred bucks back on their annual property tax bill makes a helluva lot more sense than improving our economy, growing better-paying jobs and upping our education system so we are competitive in the global market.

No shit.

Lots of interesting things in the latest Florida Chamber of Commerce poll; and aside from a usual disclaimer that this group has a vested interest in certain public issues (hence the push for property tax reform), the big finding in today’s poll is that a majority of Floridians think the state is heading to hell in a handbag.

The actual number is 51 percent think we are heading in the wrong direction, with just 32 percent happy with the state’s direction. That is nearly a 180 from the chamber’s February poll that found 57 percent of the state happy.

The Orlando Sentinel has provided a .pdf of the summary memo of the poll.

(As somebody who has lived in the nation’s wang since 1967, I heartily concur with the majority.)

The latest polling from CBS News brings some interesting tidbits about party satisfaction and the movement to independent or third-party candidates. (h/t to Campaign Insider magazine.)

When Democratic voters were asked if they were satisfied with their options in the presidential primary, 61 percent said they were satisfied. For Republicans, it is a 180 turnaround, with 61 percent saying they want more choices, or more to the point, that they aren’t happy with the field they have right now. As Campaign Insider points out, this is consistent with previous polls and reflects the fact that GOP conservatives haven’t found a horse in this race yet.

On the issue of a desire for a third party choice, 53 percent of all voters said yes, they’d love to see a third-party candidate. Broken down by party, neither Republicans nor Democrats have a majority of members who feel that way (although both show support in the low 40’s for an independent option). Seventy-one percent of registered independents, however, want a third party choice. Should that number be higher? Isn’t that why people register as independents, because they aren’t comfortable with either party or their candidates>

There’s an interesting post over at pollster.com about the polling trends in the first five primary states (Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, Florida and South Carolina). This is important because to really be in the running on the Feb. 5 Super-Duper-Tuesday, you probably have to win one of these five as an appetizer.

On the Republican side, Rudy Giuliani and John McCain are falling off the table in four of the five states (including Florida). For McCain, that is just another sign of the end of his candidacy, especially in light of fundraising problems and staff layoffs. Mitt Romney has to like his trending upward, but his rise is eclipsed by still-unofficial candidate Fred Thompson.

On the Democratic side, national polling frontrunner Hillary Clinton looks strong and heading up in Florida and New Hampshire; she’s slipped a bit in Iowa and South Carolina. Despite that slippage in the Iowa caucuses, she still is ahead in the latest polls by 1 point over John Edwards, with Barack Obama gaining. No wonder that Bill has joined her on the campaign trail to hold off that Obama rush.

A reminder: As always, polling at this early point in the race is a reflection of name recognition and final results can change. But dragging in the polls and having positions on the issues that run counter to your party (I’m looking at you, Sen. McCain) can kill your fundraising.

Two leading Republican candidates in a struggle over which one is more conservative on the issue of stem-cell research.

In one corner is John McCain, the former maverick turned uninteresting grouch whose campaign is distributing video clips of one of his rivals appearing to accept some levels of embryonic stem cell funding and research. McCain’s campaign is understandably nervous, because the war hero senator is dropping like a rock in polling and can’t survive the imminent arrival of the Rear Admiral (Fred Thompson).

In the other corner is serial position-changer Mitt Romney, who has won many social conservative hearts and minds despite previous stances that were less-than-conservative. In this case, according to the NYT, McCain doesn’t appear to have the goods on Romney; the video has enough wiggle room in it for Romney’s campaign to make the argument that he hasn’t changed in his opposition to destroying fetuses to enable stem cell research.

Of course, it is not even part of the battle that both men’s positions are out of the mainstream for the nation as a whole.  But then again, this isn’t about the nation as a whole; it’s about winning the Republican primary. Plenty of time to “nuance” a position in the General Election.