The Political Whore

Silence is golden.

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He hasn’t made his mind up yet, according to Politico’s sources, but:

he’s getting green lights from would-be contributors and blessings from Republican Party leaders.

Strategists and political observers take it as a sign that Bush will run.

“Everything indicates that he’s in,” said David Johnson, a Republican Strategist and the CEO of Strategic Vision. “You’re not making calls and laying the ground work for fundraising unless you’re clearing the field for your candidacy.”

Also explains why you haven’t heard anyone else jump in yet, as they wait to see if the 800-pound gorilla will show up to the party.

Here’s a wrap-up on what we know about who is in and who is out in the race for the U.S. Senate in 2010:

DEMOCRATS

CFO Alex Sink — definitely rethinking the race now that Mel is out. The Trib said she “is her party’s 800-pound gorilla – if she wants the nomination, it’s hers.”

State Sen. Dan Gelber — well liked in the party but not known outside of South Florida, despite his turn heading up the 2008 election cycle for the Democrats. A race against Martinez that would have raised his profile and set the table for a future statewide run would have been a better fit for him than a battle possibly against Alex Sink.

Allen Boyd — A congressman from the Panhandle whose name recognition statewide is too low.

Congresswoman Debbie Wasserman-Schulz of Weston — Her spokesman said she’s happy in the House, where she is a rising star in the capo regime of Nancy Pelosi.

Former Tampa Congressman Jim Davis — The Trib reports he is not interested. His name continues to be bandied about for Tampa mayor in 2011, although some believe he won’t run and is happy making money as a Washington and Tampa lawyer.

Tampa Mayor Pam Iorio — Uncertain, gave a noncomittal answer to queries.

Other names out there: Others: U.S. Rep. Kendrick Meek, Frank Sanchez of Tampa, fundraiser Chris Korge of Miami, Boca Raton Congressman Ron Klein.

Analysis: Sink has a strong advantage if she chooses to run, and she likely will, but expect other Democrats to get in as well, hoping for her to stumble or taking the opportunity to build their statewide name recognition.

REPUBLICANS

Former Gov. Jeb Bush — Martinez’s dropout changes everything for the former guv and presidential brother. Bush would have been positioned to run for president in 2012 if his brother hadn’t so sullied the Bush name. Bush is allowing friends to leak out his interest in the seat, and he would wipe not only any GOP candidate off the map but any Democrat as well. The seat is his for the taking.

Attorney General Bill McCollum — Propped up by the social conservative wing of the party, McCollum has been trying to get back to Washington since his days in the House trying to impeach Bill Clinton. He’ll run for sure unless Jeb! gets in.

Former House Speaker Marco Rubio of Miami — definitely interested.

Former House Speaker Alan Bense of Panama City — definitely interested.

Congressman Connie Mack IV — definitely interested.

Charlie Crist — Forget about it; Charlie is better positioned to run for higher office (read: president) as the centrist governor of Florida than having to play the Capitol games in the US Senate.

Congressman Adam Putnam of Bartow — Howdy Doody stays put in the US House for now and is eyeing a run for the Ag Commissioner slot in 2010.

Others mentioned: State Sen. Dan Webster, Fla. House Majority Leader Adam Hasner of Delray Beach, Orange County Mayor Rich Crotty, Congressman John Mica of Winter Park, Congresswoman Ginnie Brown-Waite.

Analysis: Jeb! is unbeatable, and if he gets in, there will be no substantive GOP primary. Running against him is a suicide mission that will be viewed as disloyal by the Republican faithful. Everybody else (but McCollum) is just throwing their name out there for free publicity.

Other coverage:Orlando Sentinel here and here; AP; Palm Beach Post.

It won’t be incumbent Republican Mel Martinez, who shocked the establishment today with his announcement that he will be a one-term wonder:

The Senate is the only federal office carrying a six-year term, so a decision about whether to run for re-election is one that my family and I have carefully considered over the past year. It was a question that came to mind as I wrote my book – causing me to reflect on the path I’ve chosen, and to think about, with love and gratitude, those who’ve traveled with me.

The inescapable truth, for me, is that the call to public service is strong, but the call to home, family and lifelong friends is even stronger.

So today, with deep love for this country and with sincere gratitude to the people who placed their trust in me, I announce that I will not run for reelection to the United States Senate.

(full text after the jump)

The Orlando Sentinel reported that Martinez’s fundraising had lagged, hurt by a probe into his 2004 campaign.

And until Martinez made his surprising announcement, it wasn’t going to be Florida CFO Alex Sink, either. Sink had signaled to numerous reporters that she was taking a pass on the 2010 Senate race in favor of sitting tight as the highest-ranking elected Democrat in the state. But in the aftermath of Martinez’s surprise, Sink is rethinking the race, according to March on Politics:

Suddenly, after Sen. Mel Martinez’s announcement that he won’t run for re-election, Alex Sink’s staff is retracting her leaked plans to forgo the Senate race. “I spoke too soon—there’s not going to be an announcement today,” a Sink spokeswoman said.

Unnamed sources close to Sink had spread the word among reporters this morning that she would run for re-election to her chief financial officer seat in 2010 rather than seek the Martinez Senate seat. A formal announcement would be coming before lunchtime, they said.

Best guess: The Martinez pull-out puts Sink back into it, since she has been looking for either an open Senate seat or Governor’s race for her next jump up. But she won’t be alone in the primary. Expect lots of other Democrats to take a look, including former state House Minority Leader Dan Gelber and South Florida state Sen. Dave Aronberg.

On the GOP side, it will be a free-for-all, with Attorney General Bill McCollum clearly coveting the return trip to Washington that he tried to win in 2004. The deep GOP bench could also find players such as former House Speaker Marco Rubio and Sen. Dan Webster. More to come on this speculation, and that’s all it is for now.

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Senator Mel is in some trouble, if the Quinnipiac Poll released today is any indication. The Miami Herald puts it into context:

Sen. Mel Martinez could face a tough re-election, as a Quinnipiac University poll released today shows him receiving approval from only 42 percent of the voters. According to the survey, 33 percent disapprove of Martinez.

In contrast, Gov. Charlie Crist looks hard to beat with a 68 approval rating. Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink would be his strongest Democratic challenger, according to the poll, though her approval rating is only 35 percent.

“Florida votes Democrat for president, unseats a couple of Republican congressmen and the state GOP is worrying about the state turning blue, but nothing seems to hurt Gov. Crist,” said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. “Even in bad economic times and with his Republican Party seemingly on the ropes, he remains incredibly popular.”

Martinez underwhelmed his party with his relatively short stint as chairman of the RNC, angered conservatives with his stance on immigration reform, and upset his constituents by looking like he was paying more attention to partisan matters than the Congress to which he was elected to represent the state. And aside from his dramatic back story (Martinez came to this nation as a teen as part of the “Peter Pan” airlift out of communist Cuba) and his propensity to govern as a moderate and run as a conservative, Martinez has pretty much been a big zero in the Senate.

The Q Poll’s Brown says Martinez’s re-election, however, is not out of the question. “Martinez’ numbers aren’t awful,” Brown said in a press release accompanying the poll results. “The key to his winning re-election will be winning back the allegiance of independent voters, who currently are not in his corner. But with a third of independents saying they re undecided, he certainly has an opportunity to accomplish that end.”