the Electoral College.
September 17th, 2008 by kerem.ozkan in News, Politics
There’s a lot of hype surrounding McCain’s recent bounce in the national polls. A quick reminder: the popular vote means absolutely nothing. George W. Bush eked out a 271-266 victory in the electoral college while losing the popular vote to Al Gore by about 540,000 votes. We all know this election, like the last few, is going to come down to a small number of swing states.
So how is the electoral map shaping up?
FiveThirtyEight.com, the most sophisticated polling analysis website out there, broke down the numbers and found the election is essentially a dead heat. They suggest McCain will win 274-264, but practically any shift in the map towards Obama would put him over the top.
And new polls have Obama looking good in Virginia, Florida, Ohio and North Carolina; McCain appears to be gaining ground in Wisconsin, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Michigan and New Jersey. Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada have been polling all over the place and are complete toss-ups. In other words, this is anyone’s game.
Personally, my money is still on Obama. I reckon polls are underestimating his ability to get the vote out, and an ailing economy will hurt McCain. Both candidates will be playing hardball in the upcoming debates, and my guess is Obama will look and sound better to undecided voters.
Any takers?
edit: I spoke too soon – Obama’s already back on top in the polls.
October 3rd, 2008 at 11:16 am
“Who are these Electors? .. They are sent to the College every four years in proportion to the population of each state. Then they are shaved all over and put into a sensory deprivation tank full of a kind of nutrient slime — often orange flavored, sometimes banana. There, held in slimy darkness for weeks on end, they go into a kind of trance and predict who the next president will be. And here is the great genius of our American system: They are almost always correct.”
That’s right Brian Ries — I got an advance copy of More Information Than You Require. It’s good.