Daily Loaf

Three weeks from now, you’re going to wish this got posted a few days earlier. Three weeks from now, when someone else is getting the pay-out from your office pool, you’re going to hate me.  Why? Well, because this post contains a bracket, filled out by yours truly, which contains the correct choices for all of the games in the 2009 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament.

Technically speaking the odds of picking each and every game in the tournament correctly is 150,000,000 to one.  You have a better chance of having an accident with a chainsaw (1 in 4464),  or dying on a bicycle (1 in 4472) than picking perfection (in case you’re wondering the answer is yes, I did just type “odds of things happening” into Google). I,  of course, have a better chance of getting all the games right because, well, I already did. The reason that’s true, though, is because I was required by Act of Congress to withhold my bracket from you until only hours before tip-off.

Feel free to leave comments, if you want. Keep in mind, though, that three weeks from now you might look silly. Let me just point a few things out to you.

(Click bracket to enlarge:)

The odds of filling out the perfect bracket is 150,000,000 to 1. I also played the Mega Millions lottery this week… holler

Bracket Strategy

Like I said, Congress would not let you see this bracket before now so this is largely for you to assess your bracket on a “crap, I shouldn’t have done that” basis.

Keep something in mind: In most brackets points increase exponentially as you move forward. This makes picking earlier round games easier.  Don’t get cute. You may legitimately think that play-in game winner Morehead State will beat Louisville in the first round . That’s fine, but remember that first round games mean almost nothing. So when you take a look at my bracket and want to say that there is “no way Texas A&M beats BYU” it doesn’t really matter because neither of them have a good chance at beating Connecticut in the second round anyway.

Ultimately, you need three of your final four correct, at least one in the finals and the correct National Champion.  Of course, I have the perfect bracket so…

That being said I recognize that it is important to get all the points you can early.

The 5/12 Match-up

When talking tourney, everyone loves to look to the 5 vs. 12 games as a good place to steal some points.  Three of this years 5/12 feature teams from the Big 10.

Though the Big 10 was weaker this season than the conference RPI suggests (trust me), Big 10 tournament champion Purdue has been getting healthier. Star Robbie Hummel missed a lot of time int he middle of Conference play with a broken back which definitely hurt their seeding. The Boilers are not likely to go down in the first.  Wisconsin could pose match-up problems for FSU out in the East Region, especially with the game in Boise; but, I would not bet my life on it.  Western Kentucky looks like a sexy pick to beat Illinois because they beat Louisville in the non-conference, but do not fall for it. Louisville didn’t start trying until conference play.

I think the best shot at a 5 over a 12 is in the Midwest. Arizona should not have even made the field so they are playing with house money. I’m not particularly impressed with Utah’s resume, either. Makes for a trobuling combo for Utes fans.

The Michigan State Factor

Since Tom Izzo began coaching the Spartans in 1995, every player he has recruited that stayed four seasons has played in the Final Four. The last appearance for the squadron? 2005… you do the math.

Add to it that the only time in school history the team has been the #2 Seed was in 1979.  That season, 30 years ago this March, Ervin “Magic” Johnson lead the Spartans to a Final Four, and National Championship game win over the Indiana State Sycamore’s (lead by Larry Bird).

Add to those that this year’s Final Four is in the Motor City, about an hour and a half from campus, there’s definitely a sense of urgency in that locker room.

Finishing Touches

Take a look at teams travel schedules. For instance, UCLA is playing VCU in Philadelphia on Thursday.  UCLA (who has been one of the most overrated teams all year) has to come all the way across the country to play on the first day of the tourney.  In the South Region, if Gonzaga and Arizona State make the Sweet 16, they’ll have to travel all the way to Memphis.

Only once since the tournament expanded in 1985 has there been no number one seed in the Final Four. On the flip side, only once (last year) have all the number one seeds made the Final Four.  If you’ve got a chalk bracket (i.e., all the ones have advanced to Detroit) you should think about mixing it up. If you have none of the #1’s, again, you’re doing yourself a disservice because the goal is to keep at least three of your Final Four teams alive.

15 times since 1985 (i.e., 15/27 years), and 8 of the last 10, the Final Four has featured at least two teams from the same conference.  The last time, in 2006, the Final Four featured Florida and LSU, both from the SEC. It’s definitely not a sure thing, but it’s not something to shy away from either (especially this year with 3 one seeds from one conference).

What I’m getting at is that, for your sake, I hope you’re not in any pools with me.

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