Mayor’s rebuttal of Atlanta crime-rankings misleading and incomplete
June 8, 2009 at 5:26 pm by Andisheh Nouraee in NewsRebutting a June 5 story by Real Clear Politics naming Atlanta the country’s second least-safe large city, Mayor Shirley Franklin’s office today correctly noted Real Clear Politics jumbled its numbers.
From the Mayor’s office (emphasis mine):
Real Clear Politics claims that the City of Atlanta’s crime rate is over 16%. According to the actual FBI data, the crime rate in Atlanta is only 8.7%. (The FBI shows total crimes in 2008 of 46,381 and a population of 533,016. This translates to a crime rate of 8.7%.)
What the Mayor’s defiant press release neglects to mention, however, is that Real Clear Politics’ rankings are indeed correct.
The “only 8.7%” crime rate Franklin’s office boasts of is, according the FBI, the second-highest crime rate of any American city with more than 500,000 people.
In 2008, Atlanta indeed had more crime per person than all-but-one U.S. city with more than 500,000 people.
The numbers below were calculated by adding the total number of violent crime and property crime incidents in 2008 (not including arson) divided by the population. All of the numbers can be found in an Excel spreadsheet on the FBI’s web site.
| Memphis | 0.0993 |
| Atlanta | 0.0873 |
| San Antonio | 0.0794 |
| Detroit | 0.0779 |
| Indianapolis | 0.0729 |
| Milwaukee | 0.0729 |
| Columbus | 0.0722 |
| Charlotte-Mecklenburg | 0.0712 |
| Albuquerque | 0.0694 |
| Oklahoma City | 0.0687 |
| Dallas | 0.0683 |
| Nashville | 0.0677 |
| Jacksonville | 0.0673 |
| Austin | 0.0647 |
| Baltimore | 0.0641 |
| Seattle | 0.0606 |
| Houston | 0.0605 |
| Portland | 0.0591 |
| Phoenix | 0.0587 |
| Philadelphia | 0.0578 |
| Fort Worth | 0.0569 |
| San Francisco | 0.0539 |
| Louisville Metro | 0.0536 |
| Las Vegas | 0.0491 |
| Boston | 0.0482 |
| Chicago | 0.0463 |
| Denver | 0.0382 |
| Honolulu | 0.0379 |
| El Paso | 0.0368 |
| San Diego | 0.0365 |
| Los Angeles | 0.0331 |
| San Jose | 0.0274 |
| New York | 0.0238 |
June 9th, 2009 at 12:27 am
Cleary you are smart enough to know you are misleading people. What a shame.
While you are technically correct, you fail to mention that the FBI urges people to not compare their crime rate numbers city to city.
As others on this blog have pointed out the annexation laws from state to state and city to city make the comparisons useless. You know this and continue to report in error.
Stop being lazy and report the truth instead of coming up with catching headlines.
June 9th, 2009 at 3:23 am
A further shame is the simplistic calculation being used for these crime statistics. The key value within the calculation used is the population (denominator). Obviously the larger that number may be, the lower your crime to population ratio. Some of these cities on the list have city-county governments while others have city borders that would range the size of I-285.
With a metro population of over 5 million it is ludacris and irresponsible to base a crime ratio in Atlanta on only the cities population of 500k. Do people that live in Norcross, Decatur, College Park, Sandy Springs, and the litany of cities in the metro area not commit crime in Atlanta.
These crime statistics make the assumption that all crime in Atlanta is undertaken by a resident of Atlanta. OUTRAGEOUS! If only the populatio of Fulton county were to be taken into account (as in a city-county municipality), the population denominator would be about 1 million. This doubles the population…in order to keep the current crime ratio the crimes would also need to double. Which they won’t.
This bogus calculation is disgusting and shame on those who dislike the mayor for laching onto them to attack her. If you dislike her, attack her policies and so forth. Have pride in where you live. Atlanta has come leaps and bounds in safety from the 80’s and 90’s, regardless of what some annexation biased crime test says.
June 9th, 2009 at 8:46 am
Based on the comments already here, I’ll say that the point of this article does not appear to be where Atlanta ranks on the FBI’s list. Rather, it looks like a valid highlight of the mayor’s hypocrisy in using the FBI statistics in her press release. Indeed, Thomas Wheatley rightly notes that these statistics are “apples and oranges” and points to the Decatur Metro article that questions the original RCP analysis.
I for one appreciate CL highlighting information presented by everyone regarding crime. The bottom line is that everyone knows crime is on the rise – you don’t need data to see that. I think everyone feels disappointed in the standard mayoral response/whitewashing we’ve gotten from Mayor Franklin.
June 9th, 2009 at 9:31 am
S. Dekalb Voter- If the city’s crime rate is such a bothersome statistic to you, perhaps you should also call the Mayor’s office and advise her to stop sending out press releases bragging about how it’s “only 8.7%.”
Loyal ATLien, you make a very valid point about Atlanta’s political geography and its potential impact on crime rates. This blog twice linked to another writer yesterday who made the same point.
You are also correct that mathematical fractions have smaller values if the denominator grows while the numerator remains the same.
But none of that changes two facts: the city of Atlanta has the 2nd highest crime rate of any 500K+ city in the U.S. and Mayor of Atlanta just out a press release bragging about it.
June 9th, 2009 at 9:31 am
@ Loyal ATLien,
hey, leave “ludacris” out of this. it’s not like he is TI…
June 9th, 2009 at 9:46 am
Also, none of this changes the dramatic rise in property crime in Atlanta in 2008. There are no fractions required to calculate the raw numbers of property crimes that occurred in 2008 as compared to 2007 (as compiled by the FBI using police reports.)
Or is that just our perception of how many property crimes occurred?
June 9th, 2009 at 9:59 am
I there really any surprise that we can’t believe anything Atlanta city officials say? Corruption and incompetence, as usual, are the order of the day in the ATL. In Atlanta, we are expected to believe what the City TELLS us, not what the data says, or what we experience.
June 9th, 2009 at 10:37 am
Shirley & Co., stand up and take some responsibility for this. Disgraceful and embarassing.
June 9th, 2009 at 10:48 am
Out of all the criticisms of the mayor and Atlanta’s crime scene, this is the least valid of them. As has been pointed out already, using FBI stats to compare Atlanta’s crime rate to other cities is not a valid use of the data at all. Making this argument only gives the Mayor a platform to stand on from which to continue berating her critics and diverting attention from the real issues.
It is not a valid argument at all to say that Atlanta has the second highest crime rate. The argument essentially means nothing because it lacks either logical or contextual validity.
Having said that, using the FBI stats to compare Atlanta to itself is entirely valid. Again, as others have pointed out, violent crime is down and property crime is up.
Most violent crime occurs between people who know one another. Most property crime occurs where the perp and victim do not know one another.
With property crime on the rise, that means there are more incidents that seem random. This feeds into the loss of a sense of order in the city, and therefore the rise in the perception of crime.
Clearly, the perception of crime reflects the reality of the situation: property crime is on the rise. You could maybe hypothesize that following the loss of a sense of order, we’ll see a rise in random instances of violent crime. But that would require a deeper understanding of the data.
June 9th, 2009 at 11:36 am
Joe, stating Atlanta has the second highest crime rate of any large city isn’t an argument or an analysis. It’s a fact.
There’s indeed a distinction between the city and the metro area, but Mayor Franklin’s press release does not attempt to make that distinction.
Instead, she’s bragging the city’s crime rate is “only 8.7%.”
June 9th, 2009 at 11:53 am
I strongly agree with what I think your larger point is, Joe: that there’s a bigger, more sophisticated and wide-ranging discussion to be had on this topic.
Unfortunately, it appears none of our Atlanta’s leaders are interested in having that discussion.
Mayor Franklin has said more on-the-record this year about imaginary baseball bats than she has about city residents’ worries about crime.
June 9th, 2009 at 11:56 am
You can call it a fact, but it’s really irrelevant. Frankly, it’s not even valid to call it a crime “rate” because the “rate” doesn’t include non-residents.
This whole exercise is like factoring in fuel efficiency as a way of measuring traffic congestion. Fuel efficiency is down, therefore there must be more traffic congestion, right?
The point that I’m making is not to defend the mayor — she’s really not worth defending. But as long as she’s going to be criticized, I think it’s more worth everyone’s while for the criticisms to be valid.
June 9th, 2009 at 11:57 am
I strongly agree with what I think your larger point is, Joe: that there’s a bigger, more sophisticated and wide-ranging discussion to be had on this topic.
Absolutely! I say, let’s move on :)
June 9th, 2009 at 12:03 pm
Crime rate, as measured by dividing crime by population is a blunt measurement, but its neither useless nor irrelevant.
June 9th, 2009 at 12:32 pm
Joe makes some excellent points (probably one of the more constructive arguments made on here in a long time regarding this topic).
It is pointless to compare cities to one another, and it is way to simplistic to do some simple division and come up with a crime rate.
How many of these crimes have victims who are not residents of the City (e.g. a car break in whose victim is in town for an evening of dinner)? This would not be properly factored into the RCP website calculation because non-residents are not taken into account.
How many of these crimes are burglaries/shoplifting/other larcenies against businesses (e.g. the Blue Genes boutique burglary the other day)? This also would not be properly factored into the calculation because number of businesses within the City is not represented.
Enough with the BS about rankings and statistics and what some website says (personally, I am tired of all of these inane top 10 rankings) versus what our out-of-touch mayor says. A fair bit of what the mayor says is factually correct; the problem is she is so out-of-touch with the feelings of her constituents (because she’s a lame duck probably) that she comes across as flippant.
June 9th, 2009 at 12:44 pm
People, get a grip of yourselves. Crime has been on a steady rise in this city, and the city is incapable of doing anything about it. By city, I mean the jurisdiction that is incorporated as Atlanta, and not the geographic region. I live in Atlanta proper, and if I am a victim of crime, I expect the Atlanta Police Department to respond. Not Sandy Springs, Norcross, College Park, etc.
The FBI’s statistics might be useful for one thing right now. It gets us talking about this problem, and we should hold the Mayor and the City Council of Atlanta accountable.
June 11th, 2009 at 9:51 am
Shirley is trying to salvage her image. She is angling to land a nice 6 figure job with one of the bid developers like Coulsins Properties when she leaves office. I live in East Atlanta and the inner city thugs affect every aspect of my daily life. I can’t just leave the house , I have check out the street to see if any are out there casing my house first. I could never take an evening walk alone after dark. I would become a crime victim quickly. I now own a gun for the first time in my life and intend to use it if anyone is stupid enough to kick in my door while I’m there.
June 11th, 2009 at 5:06 pm
If Mayor Franklin disputes a crime problem in this city, she should take the time to read the Candler Park news letter for May 2009. There were no fewer than five armed robberies of pedestrians reported to police. Not to mention the scores of burglaries, auto thefts, larcenies and unending reports of smash ‘n grab incidents. Yet city hall is silent; November elections cannot come soon enough.
June 11th, 2009 at 8:11 pm
Blake,
I hate to say it but exaggeration of the issue does not help anything either. I have the Candler Park newsletter and, yes there were 5 armed pedestrian robberies last month, but “scores” of the other crimes? Let’s be honest. The newsletter had a total of 24 incidents including the 5 robberies (and a couple of them listed are outside of Candler Park) – that is hardly “scores” considering the definition of that word is a count of 20.
Yes, we have a problem. But exaggeration and distortion of it by concerned people and anti-crime groups is as bad as exaggeration and distortion by the mayor.
June 12th, 2009 at 12:49 pm
keith
It is not an exaggeration when your mayor will not even acknowledge that there is a crime problem. It is not an exaggeration when a simple walk down the street in our neighborhoods is taking our life into our hands.
This is unacceptable and Franklin has obliterated any respect I had for her with her stance on crime in the city and continuing to furlough police.
June 12th, 2009 at 1:33 pm
Frankly,
I understand your point. The exaggeration had to do with the other commenter’s specific example. Just as Shirley should tell the truth and not make statements that are false, misleading and flippant, those of us “on the other side of the issue” should do likewise as to not lose credibility like the mayor has.
However, other than at 2 in the morning, I don’t feel that talking a walk down the street in my neighborhood (Inman Pk/Candler Pk area) is taking my life in my hands.
June 13th, 2009 at 12:48 am
she needs the baseball bat to ring her bell so she can see what is real and what isnt real . She is dumb as a door knob .
June 16th, 2009 at 6:30 pm
Franklin acknowledges crime is a problem which is why she has pushed to hire more officers than ever employed by the city by 200 hundred or so, increased their pay and tried to avoid the layoffs with the tax increase last year… Oh no, the Council and media said there is no recession on the horizon. Then Wall Street crashed in September (what is it about bad news in Septmeber?)and the media and lots of you have collective amnesia…
June 16th, 2009 at 6:31 pm
Tag Free, I wish you Norwood for Mayor.
June 16th, 2009 at 10:25 pm
lizzie you are obviously buying whatever the mayor or the AJC is sellin but it is not the case.
Look at every county in the metro area and find one that has balanced their books with anything close to a 44% rate hike.
On top of that the Mayor’s budget is trying to close a 58 million dollar gap in the budget of which only $18 million are the public safety furloughs.
How did this City grow by 25% in the last 8 years without increasing property tax revenue whatsoever, inflation adjusted or otherwise?
The Police have seen a freeze on their step pay and have seen their salaries decrease by 40% in that time.
We have less cops then when she started and not only that we are paying them almost half as much. And on top of that we are now finding out the administration is fighting claims of 20 year disabled veterans.
Expanding by 200 positions isn’t going to do us a bit of good if this city is so horrible to work for that nobody in their right mind would sign up for it.
More than the Mayor are to blame but everybody else has at least acknowledged that there is a problem. The Czar of Safety remains silent, the Ethics board somehow has blinders on when it comes to the Mayor.