Poll: Norwood’s lead in Atlanta mayoral race dips, Reed gains
September 11, 2009 at 8:12 pm by Thomas Wheatley in NewsLooks like this sucker’s starting to get a little more competitive:
The race for the Atlanta mayor’s office got a little tighter in the last week, according to a new poll released Friday.
The new WSB-TV Channel 2/InsiderAdvantage poll shows that Mary Norwood still leads the race with 33 percent, but her lead over Lisa Borders slipped to just six percentage points. Last week Norwood led Borders by eight percentage points.
Although she is still second in the race, Borders actually dropped in percentage points, going from 34 percent to 27 percent this week.
The big gainer was Kasim Reed. He remained in third place, but jumped from nine percentage points to 15 percent.
There are still plenty of folks to convince. Twenty-three percent of the poll’s respondents are still undecided.
We spoke about the mayoral race earlier this afternoon with InsiderAdvantage CEO Matt Towery. Because of the recession and difficult fundraising environment, he said, candidates have been reluctant to splurge on paid advertisements.
The former state lawmaker turned political pollster compared the contest to “running for high-school class president” — thus far, it’s been more about shaking hands and building a rapport with voters at forums and debates rather than flooding the airwaves with your message.
September 11th, 2009 at 8:56 pm
I expect more from CL than a “softball” reference to Matt Towery and his totally biased and unethical polls.
After being compared side-by-side with the recent poll by Cornell Belcher (Obama’s pollster)the Insider Advantage/WSB Atlanta mayoral polls have been totally debunked.
They are unscientific, biased and designed to influence the outcome of the election.
Is this Thomas Wheatley article an example of what we can expect from the “new” CL?
September 11th, 2009 at 9:28 pm
The Vote-O-Meter has also picked up changes since its last post on August 30. If the mayoral election were held today, the Vote-O-Meter projects Mary Norwood at 41%; Lisa Borders – 27%; Kasim Reed – 26%; Jesse Spikes – 4%, Kyle Keyser – 2%; Peter Brownlowe – 0%. Borders has moved ahead Reed, perhaps due to the blowback from the Turpeau memo. Norwood has lost a little ground. Reed is wrestling with how to convince voters he should be in the run-off. Spikes is stalling. Keyser is stirring the pot.
September 11th, 2009 at 10:09 pm
Who made Matt Towery the God of polling? Why is everyone referencing a poll by a clearly biased pollster? How do the numbers move (for any of the candidates) that drastically in less than a week?
According to his poll, how is Mary Norwood pulling the majority of African-American support when you have one candidate whose grandfather has been damn near iconic in the black community and you have another who has been endorsed by the most prominent African-American figure in Atlanta politics?
I don’t trust anything he says.
Why isn’t Lisa Borders releasing any of her internal polling numbers?
Why don’t I see more articles referencing Cornell Belcher’s recent poll? He’s widely known, highly well-respected, and credible. He polled accurately for the President?
September 11th, 2009 at 11:24 pm
You Reed supporters are funny. The reason people keep referencing Towery’s poll is nobody has proven they are wrong, he claims to be independent, and he is polling the race the most.
You can’t just keep screaming the polls are wrong without any evidence. Probably because the public, and the media, don’t know how to read a poll, much less cross tabs.
Here’s a hint, the reason the polls are wrong is because he’s weighting the age demographics wrong. According to his polls, people under 45 are weighted 55% of the total vote. That is a joke. Historically, 70% of voters in Atlanta elections are over 45.
According to Towery, Lisa’s biggest block of voters is voters under 29, which is skewing her numbers up.
I really wish CL and the other media had half a brain and actually did some research.
The Reed campaign is just a laughable. Instead of bitching about polls they need to get on TV and get some name recognition for the poor guy.
Reed can complain about polls all they want. The fact is their candidate is in third (whether you weight the polls correctly or not) and most people don’t know him.
September 12th, 2009 at 8:22 am
Several points:
(1) “he [Towery] claims to be independent”
Exactly — He claims. Anyone can claim to be independent. Why don’t the other campaigns step up to the challenge that Reed issued an each put up a fourth of the $ to pay for a true “independent” pollster…? Oh wait, the Borders camp declined (See for Reference: http://www.ajc.com/news/atlanta/reed-issues-challenge-to-129488.html).
Per the AJC — “Reed suggested during a rally on the steps of City Hall that the two campaigns hire a company to conduct a poll on the mayor’s race and that they share the costs.”
(2) “he [Towery] is polling the race the most”
So, if I polled the race everyday, that would make my polling more credible that everyone else’s?
(3) “You can’t just keep screaming the polls are wrong without any evidence.”
Uhhhh… Didn’t Bert and Let’sBeReal reference Cornell Belcher’s poll? If you don’t know who he is, check out some of Cornell’s work — http://www.usatoday.com/topics/topic/Cornell+Belcher
(4) “Here’s a hint, the reason the polls are wrong is because he’s weighting the age demographics wrong. According to his polls, people under 45 are weighted 55% of the total vote. That is a joke. Historically, 70% of voters in Atlanta elections are over 45.”
Uhhh… That’s exactly why people are saying the poll is flawed…
September 12th, 2009 at 8:48 am
The Borders campaign is based on the 3T’s:
(Aaron) Turpeau: Her racist surrogate, who supposedly stopped supporting her after their plot was foiled.
(Matt) Towery: The republican hack, who so selflessly saved her dying campaign by putting out a bogus poll the day Reed received the the Andrew Young endorsement and who is now backpedaling like Deion Sanders.
Tom (Bell): Her main fundraiser, who called President Obama a Socialist.
They’re the only reason she’s still in the race, but they will be her downfall.
September 12th, 2009 at 8:53 am
Lisa Borders is probably going down in the polls from missing so many events. Mary Norwood and Kasim Reed always show up, but I hear it’s very hard to get Ms. Borders to come around.
September 12th, 2009 at 3:26 pm
PonceMan, I don’t recall anybody saying why the Towery poll is wrong just that it’s wrong. Probably because they don’t know what the hell they’re doing and they don’t have the background. The people that have analyzed polls in past mayoral campaigns are dead or not involved this go round.
The Reed and Borders campaigns are pitiful. Norwood has the best campaign and best consultants. She’s made the fewest mistakes and is walking away with the race right now.
I agree Towery’s poll is bullshit, but as far as I’m concerned so was Reed’s. You can’t say a poll Memo is anything but marketing. If you believe a candidate’s poll memo then you’re the fool, not me.
Bottom line, who gives a shit what the polls say now. Nobody has spent any money on advertising. The first person that does will gain substantially in any future poll.
September 12th, 2009 at 4:09 pm
S. DeKalb Voter,
Towery and I discussed that yesterday. In addition to the “high-school class president” comparison, he used another metaphor for the campaign that made me long for my younger years: a child diving into a pool. He said he thought all the candidates were reluctant to spend the cash on TV advertising, and like a parent trying to coax their child to take the plunge, the candidates just had to do it. It would have a high ROI, he thought. He noted how some folks would say, “Oh, of course Towery — who’s being paid to conduct polls by a TV station — is gonna say that.” He said stations make little, if any, money from political ads. (I’m not familiar enough with paid media models to agree or disagree with him.) In his experience, radio advertising works well to drive issues and build turnout. TV is where you get your name recognition, which he said would give Reed a boost.
I’m not viewing these polls as gospel, but they are a good barometer. Personally, I think the mayor’s race is incredibly difficult to read. It’s very unpredictable. Nov. 3 is gonna be a crazy night.
September 12th, 2009 at 9:51 pm
TV is king to move a candidates numbers. Towery is not lying or trying to fatten WSB’s pockets. Any credible media politico will tell you the same thing.
I respect Towery. He was right on in the Presidential race for GA last year. However, he’s not experienced in local municipal elections. His age demographic breakdowns in his current mayoral polls are at best, laughable, and at worst misleading.
The child jumping in the pool analogy is good one. If Reed doesn’t jump in the pool soon then this race will be over for him. Franklin was in a similar situation as Reed in early Fall 2001 – low name ID vs. high name ID opponent – and she gambled and went up on TV the 1st week of Sept. That gamble obviously paid off for her.
The polls are good barometers, but the horse race numbers mean very little. Unless you see the cross tabs and can see the candidates demographic strengths and weaknesses, the horse race is really just entertainment for the moment.
I think this race is pretty simple to read. Will Norwood get enough of the black vote to win without a runoff? Which one of the black candidates will get the black vote (Historically, the black vote doesn’t split, one candidate gets a clear majority.)
The campaign strategies are pretty simple too.
Reed – Win the black vote, make the runoff, and hope Border’s intown white vote moves to him. Pretty risky strategy if you ask me. The first part is easy, the second part is not.
Borders – Try and get a little bit of both the black and white vote to make the runoff, and hope Reed’s black vote moves to her in the runoff. Risky again, because she’s doesn’t have a base.
Norwood – continue to fly under the radar and run her stealth campaign. She’s trying to sneak up and get enough black votes to win without a runoff. Despite what most of the media has been reporting, Norwood would have an uphill climb in the runoff. The national democrats will throw the book (and money) at this race to keep her from winning in a runoff.
September 14th, 2009 at 12:43 am
After tonight’s debate, I am sure the Reed campaign is on fire. He did an impressive job.
BTW, Norwood is horrible on TV! If there are enough debates, she may drop to 3rd place before the election…
September 14th, 2009 at 1:09 am
I felt sorry for Norwood when Reed jerked the mic from her and started yammering something about Beyonce, though.
September 14th, 2009 at 8:55 am
anyone who says that tv stations don’t make a lot of money off political adverts is lying.