Why Kendrick Meek will lose the Senate race
February 2, 2009 at 9:29 am by Jim Johnson
First, any prognostication made this far in advance has to be taken with a grain of salt. So, keep that in mind as you read what I am about to say: Kendrick Meek will lose his bid for the U.S. Senate.
Now, there will be quite a few people up in arms about this. I’m sorry. Maybe this will make them work harder to prove me wrong. One of those things where knowing the future could change the future… but I digress.
There are quite a few reasons why I think he will lose, and none are related to the color of his skin.
First, he will have a tough time raising money. According to his FEC report, Meek had about $430,000 cash on hand at the end of last year. Now, I know he hasn’t had to raise a lot of money in recent elections – winning without opposition will do that.
But power fundraiser Chris Korge organized an event for him last week. On hand was former President Bill Clinton to effectively “endorse” Meek. Yet despite these two important allies, Meek only managed to scrape together $300,000. This gives him about three-quarters of a million dollars – he will need 10-15 times that amount to be successful in this state.
Second, he does not have Obama’s magic touch. To be sure, he has a little of the preacher-politician in him. But he doesn’t have the same panache at delivering a vision.
Admittedly, I have not seen much of him in action in Congress. My opinions of him are based on how he served in the Florida House and Senate. Many know I used to work for State Sen. Victor Crist, the lead Republican on public safety issues, when he was in the House. Meek was often the minority lead on public safety — so I had the chance to watch him.
Let me say I am thoroughly underwhelmed. I’ve never seen him able to grasp difficult issues or understand the nuances of public policy decisions. From his appearances on cable talk shows, he seems to be more style than substance. He will be taken apart in debates (especially against State Sen. Dan Gelber or Tampa Mayor Pam Iorio).
I work so hard, I think I deserve a trophy
Third, he’s never had to work hard for an election. This is not to say he couldn’t work hard, he just hasn’t had to. He served in the Florida House and Florida Senate, easily winning election to both. It helps that his mother was a former State Representative and State Senator, and a sitting Congresswoman when Meek ran in 1994.
He has not had to do any major campaigning for any elected office in his life. Running a statewide campaign is not easy, and will require more discipline and effort than he has had to learn.
Finally, he has no real base of power. To be sure, the African American community will come out in force for him. But that will not be enough. Obama did not win Florida because of black voters, but because of a more diverse base of support.
Some may point out that he is from South Florida, which is true. But he is from Miami-Dade, a more balanced county than Broward and Palm Beach to the north – where he will battle Dan Gelber for votes.
He will also have a difficult time reaching what may be the only real swing block in the primary race: Hispanics. The Hispanic voters in South Florida are predominately Republican. The Democrats are concentrated along the I-4 coordidor: Cubans in Tampa (who will back Iorio) and a diverse group (mostly Puerto Rican) in Orlando.
Sorry, Congressman, this is not your race to win.
